Saturday, May 2, 2009

Yanks provide more evidence that my pitching theory is correct.

Yankee manager Joe Girardi is sparking interest in my first talk radio program (see previous post) based on my blog entry here in February 2008: Thinking Man's Guide to Managing a Pitching Staff.
The basic idea is to get the optimum number of pitches from the best pitchers available in a particular game.  The simplest and most conventional way of doing this to use your best relief pitcher first, not last.  Girardi continues to show that he is no more innovative than his predecessor, Joe Torre, but without Torre's World Series championships.
Last night was May 1, 2009.  It rained during the entire game, which could have ended early because of the rain.  Even that did not inspire Girardi to use his relief pitchers in a different order.  Yanks won 10-9 with four runs in the eighth and two runs in the bottom of the ninth, so Girardi lucked out.  Here is the offending episode.
Top sixth, Yanks lead Angels 4-0.
Angels score 2.
Bases loaded, two out.
Starter Andy Pettitte is replaced by rookie Mark Melancon.
Gary Mathews hits first pitch for three run triple.
Abreu walks.
Melancon throws wild pitch allowing Mathews to score.
Hunter lines out to right.
Veras started the seventh and allowed three runs, retiring only one batter.  9-4 Angels after seven.
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Prior to last night's game Melancon had pitched three innings in his career: two innings April 26 and one inning April 28.
Melancon allowed all three inherited runners to score, plus one of his own.  Four runs.  One batter retired.  Girardi's move was a disaster.
Girardi never considered using Mariano Rivera in the sixth inning with the game on the line.  Who is more likely to get out of that bases loaded jam: Rivera or Melancon?  Who is more likely to benefit by starting an inning: Rivera or Melancon?
Rivera might have retired that final batter and prevented those three inherited runners from scoring.  He then could have pitched the seventh inning, maybe part of the eighth.  Maybe the rest of the game would have been rained out.
Girardi never got to use Rivera because Girardi followed the rigid formula that all MLB managers follow: the best the relief pitcher, known as the closer, almost always pitches only the ninth inning, only with a lead.  MLB managers maximize the number of pitches thrown by the team's worst pitchers, the middle inning relievers.  MLB managers should bring in their best relief pitcher first, then the next best and so on.  The idea is to not use the worst pitchers at all.  Instead MLB managers start with the worst hoping to get an opportunity to use the best.  MLB managers also put the worst pitchers into the most challenging situations.  MLB managers should put the best pitchers into the most challenging situations.  Starting the ninth inning is usually not the most challenging situation in most games.

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