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Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

World Series: good pitching beats good hitting.

Duh!  OK, get in your digs.  Stop the presses.  No more tweeting.  Blah, blah, blah.

I continued my research from:

Sunday, November 4, 2012
World Series Team Stats 1903-2011.

There's some cool stuff there and more here.  Basically I looked at team scoring for individual seasons and compared runs per game regular season v. World Series (WS).

Click this link to see the data and graph or click the graph below to see more detail.




































For the 107 WS from 1903 through 2011 here are the per game averages:
winners; -0.49
losers: -1.75

Winners averaged 1.25 more runs per game than losers, which is a lot, especially for elite teams.

The good news is that winning teams are doing better in recent seasons in the WS than in the regular season.  14 times from 1987 - 2011 WS winners scored better in the WS.  14 out of 24: 58%.  For all WS: 36/107 = 34%.

For the 43 WS since 1968, losers have scored better in the WS only in 1993, 1997, 2002: 7%.  For all WS only seven losers scored better: 6.5%.  Here are the losers runs per game WS improvement:

1960 NYA 3
2002 SFN 1.45
1997 CLE .89
1993 PHI .59
1964 NYA .26
1968 SLN .26
1932 CHN .07

As mentioned in that previous post:

1960 Yankees:
- .911 OPS, highest of any team with more than four games; exceeded only by Yankees 1932, Oakland 1989, Boston 2007 - the only other WS teams over .900
- 55 runs; second: Toronto 1993 with 45


Batting Average:
16 teams >= .300  Tops: 1960 Yankees .338 (most runs 55)
25 teams < .200 Lowest: 1966 Los Angeles .142 (fewest runs 2)

Slugging:
8 teams >=.500
 1989 Oakland .582 (four games)
 1928 Yankees .530 (four games)
 1960 Yankees .528

Hits:
7 teams >= 70; most 1960 Yankees 91, 1979 Pittsburgh 81
22 teams < 30; fewest 1966 LA 17


The 1960 Yanks scored 22% more runs losing than any other WS team did winning or losing before or since.  In four of their seven games the 1960 Yankees scored 47 runs, two more than runner up Toronto scored in six games in 1993.  If you sorted the runs for each team for the seven 1960 WS games and lined them up, the Yankees could have swept all seven games.  Randomness run rampant.

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