Friday, January 1, 2016

Mantle doubles faded mid career.

Whether Mickey Mantle was less than average in hitting doubles was addressed in the two previous posts.  Reviewed were:

2B/BIP (balls in play)
2B/Hits

BIP = AB - SO - HR + SF

Using that to explain Mantle's apparent lack of doubles primarily removes SO.  One way of considering that is that Mantle had an opportunity but failed.  Another way is that when Mantle had the chance to get a double he did.

Let's look at Mantle over his 18 season, 1951-1968.  But first something interesting, though unrelated, I noticed in my Mantle data:
WherethrowsBAOBPSLGOPS
homeL0.3230.4140.5520.966
homeR0.2940.4350.5791.014
roadL0.3380.4360.5981.034
roadR0.2710.4040.5220.926

Bunts, including Sac:
YearPitcher RightyPitcher Lefty
195152
1952103
195332
1954121
1955151
1956192
1957131
1958102
1959120
196090
196141
196260
196350
1964110
1965110
196661
196710
1968110
16316
91.06%8.94%

These plate appearances removed any real chance of getting anything more than a single.  In fact, I cannot recall any batter getting an extra base hit on a bunt.  Mantle bunted much more in his early years, peaking in 1956 when he achieved the triple crown, leading both leagues in BA, HR, RBI.

AB/HR (lower is better):
v Leftyv Leftyv Rightyv Righty
HomeRoadHomeRoad
YearTotvLhomevLroadvRhomevRroad
195126.281.064.016.319.4
195223.928.812.521.346.3
195322.027.010.433.331.5
195420.127.028.715.919.0
195514.039.012.210.415.8
195610.314.012.88.59.9
195713.921.017.014.611.0
195812.413.418.311.212.1
195917.521.329.013.618.8
196013.112.08.010.922.3
19619.523.010.76.99.1
196212.620.761.07.911.6
196311.510.09.28.727.0
196413.39.312.020.012.3
196519.015.016.836.715.7
196614.516.015.316.211.9
196720.043.531.315.315.2
196824.219.315.320.643.0
YearTotvLhomevLroadvRhomevRroad
Min9.59.38.06.99.1
Max26.281.064.036.746.3

Mantle became better at homering during the middle of his career, which would probably mean that doubles became home runs.  Pretty bad homer rate in his final two seasons.

AB/SO:
Yearleftyrighty
19514.15.8
19524.36.1
19534.16.9
19544.09.1
19554.49.6
19565.45.2
19575.88.0
19583.96.1
19593.87.2
19603.95.3
19614.45.1
19624.84.9
19633.522.0
19644.06.1
19654.15.6
19663.85.6
19673.64.3
19683.87.9
4.26.2

Mantle's SO rate is fairly consistent over time and should not impact his ability to hit doubles.

BAbip:
Yearleftyrighty
19510.3490.263
19520.3510.367
19530.2840.358
19540.3310.327
19550.2930.357
19560.3240.411
19570.3420.448
19580.2990.4
19590.3380.274
19600.2620.339
19610.2560.405
19620.3260.354
19630.2840.351
19640.2520.444
19650.2880.261
19660.3280.284
19670.2250.346
19680.2980.184
Tot0.3020.345

Batting lefty, fairly consistent.  Batting righty, some huge peaks, well over .400.

BA:
Yearleftyrightydif
19510.2950.228-0.067
19520.2910.3450.054
19530.2350.3440.109
19540.2890.3180.029
19550.2810.3640.083
19560.3420.3750.033
19570.3390.4210.082
19580.2820.3770.095
19590.2910.266-0.025
19600.2460.3440.098
19610.2910.3710.08
19620.3270.309-0.018
19630.2570.4090.152
19640.2410.4240.183
19650.250.2610.011
19660.2920.284-0.008
19670.2160.2870.071
19680.2470.21-0.037
Min0.2160.21-0.067
Max0.3420.4240.183

home/road:
1B/H2B/H3B/HHR/H
60.97%13.45%3.63%21.95%
61.43%15.05%2.33%22.44%

Apparently at Yankee Stadium some doubles became triples.  In 1958 Mantle hit two inside the park home runs within a month, which provided his margin of victory over Rocky Colavito 42-41 in the HR race.

Doubles as a percent of hits:
v Leftyv Leftyv Rightyv Righty
HomeRoadHomeRoad
YearTotvLhomevLroadvRhomevRroad
195112.09%5.00%30.77%3.45%17.24%
195221.51%12.20%28.13%19.61%27.08%
195317.65%23.81%7.14%12.82%25.93%
195410.43%6.25%12.90%4.44%16.36%
195515.82%19.35%17.39%16.36%12.24%
195611.70%15.00%7.69%13.56%9.52%
195716.18%22.86%17.24%9.26%18.18%
195813.29%13.64%12.50%10.91%15.79%
195914.94%4.55%25.00%14.29%16.98%
196011.81%15.15%18.18%7.50%10.20%
19619.82%22.58%9.68%2.22%8.93%
196212.40%19.05%17.65%6.06%12.00%
196314.81%20.00%12.50%18.18%
196417.73%14.29%18.75%25.58%9.68%
196513.04%4.55%15.79%24.00%7.69%
196612.50%9.09%5.56%19.35%12.00%
196715.74%19.05%12.90%17.24%14.81%
196813.59%14.29%22.22%
YearTotvLhomevLroadvRhomevRroad
Min9.82%4.55%5.56%2.22%7.69%
Max21.51%23.81%30.77%25.58%27.08%

Mantle's home run rate was pretty bad in his final two seasons, which may account for his doubles rate being pretty good: homers were now becoming doubles, rather than the other way around in mid career.

None of it is definitive.  I do not recall Mantle hitting a grounder over first or third for a double into the corner.  I don't recall him being thrown out trying to stretch for an extra base.  Perhaps he did in his early seasons and, if unsuccessful, met the wrath of his Yankee manager 1951-1960 Casey Stengel.

My original post on this:

Why did Mickey Mantle hit so few doubles? Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The obvious answer is that the Yankees instructed Mantle to not try for doubles and triples unless he could make it standing.  This would protect his increasingly fragile legs.

_________________________________________

5 comments:

Terry Shoebotham said...

Hi Kenneth,
I have been following Radical Baseball for a few months now and enjoy your perspective and analyses. Like you, I am a long-time NY Yankee and Mickey Mantle fan and lover of baseball stats.
I notice on your post for January 1 (“Mantle’s Doubles Faded in Mid Career”) that you list Mantle’s BA, OBP, SP, and OPS for hitting both right-handed and left-handed for both home and away. I have always thought that would be a great way to parse Mantle’s statistics, but other than slog through more day-to-day data than I have time for I couldn’t think of any way to do that. Apparently you have.
So this is not so much a comment as a question . . . is there any way I could persuade you to pass on to me Mantle’s season-by-season records for batting lefty home and away and batting righty home and away? Or tell me where this data exists on the web? If so, I would certainly appreciate it.
Sincerely,
David Shoebotham

Kenneth Matinale said...

Terry/David,

Thanks. Sure. I've included links in some of my Mantle posts to the data. I'll post another just with the links. I've written quite a few posts using that data. Check the Mickey Mantle label on Radical Baseball.

I extracted the data from Baseball Reference. Then imported it into Microsoft Access. Then cleaned it up and got the IDs for the pitchers. I also filled in some missing data from the early 1950s by accessing New York Times archives.

I never meant to keep it secret. The data is available in Google Docs Sheets. Look for the post in a day or two.

Ken

Terry Shoebotham said...

Kenneth,
Thanks very much for the posts on Mantle’s data.
I hate to press your generosity even further, but is there a breakdown of Mantle’s Yankee Stadium Right- and Left-handed vs. Road Right- and Left-handed batting on a season-by-season basis?
(OBTW, the confusion about my name came about because I am using my wife’s Google account to contact you. She is now urging me to get my own account.)
Sincerely,
David Shoebotham

Kenneth Matinale said...

David,

http://radicalbaseball.blogspot.com/2016/01/mickey-mantle-links-to-detailed.html

The first link has three tabs "by year". Enjoy.

Ken

P.S. I may attend the SABR regional in NYC next Saturday. If you're there, say hello.

Terry Shoebotham said...

Hi Kenneth,
Oops, my mistake.
I didn’t notice the tabs at the top of the page when you sent me Mantle’s information the first time. Now I have it. Again, many thanks.
I won’t be attending the SABR regional in NYC this Saturday because I will be attending the regional here in Albuquerque, New Mexico. I would like to meet you sometime, though.
David Shoebotham