About Me

My photo

Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Mantle triples and doubles v. League: data and graphs.

Mickey Mantle: trying to make sense of the four previous posts addressing whether Mantle hit an average amount of doubles or less than average using two methods:

2B/BIP (balls in play)
2B/Hits

BIP = AB - SO - HR + SF

The idea here is to see if there is much difference if we group doubles and triples together.  We'll ignore inside the park home runs, which generally would not make much difference. An exception: Mantle hit two IPHR in 1958, which helped him beat Rocky Colavito for the HR crown 42 to 41.

Oh, another exception: in 1909 Ty Cobb achieved a triple crown, leading in BA, RBI, HR.  It's the only season in which Cobb led in HR even though he only hit nine, all IPHR.  I'm guessing that many were triples that got stretched.  That's part of the thinking here, batters stretching doubles into triples.

Mantle:
Year(2B+3B)/BIP(2B+3B)/H
19516.30%17.58%
195210.60%25.73%
19537.71%19.85%
19547.02%17.79%
19559.33%22.78%
19566.99%14.36%
19579.24%19.65%
19586.13%13.92%
19596.99%17.53%
19606.27%15.86%
19616.23%13.50%
19625.90%13.22%
19636.35%14.81%
19648.16%19.15%
19654.87%14.13%
19665.49%13.54%
19675.48%15.74%
19684.63%14.56%
Year(2B+3B)/BIP(2B+3B)/H
Min4.63%13.22%
Max10.60%25.73%
Ave6.87%16.87%



American League, including pitchers:
Year(2B+3B)/BIP(2B+3B)/H
19515.92%19.68%
19525.65%19.22%
19535.87%19.31%
19545.57%18.81%
19555.34%17.70%
19565.73%18.59%
19575.55%18.41%
19585.48%18.06%
19595.57%18.43%
19605.68%18.65%
19615.78%18.74%
19625.79%18.75%
19635.52%18.12%
19645.54%17.91%
19655.58%18.56%
19665.57%18.68%
19675.33%18.13%
19685.11%17.90%
Min5.33%17.70%
Max5.92%19.68%
Ave5.62%18.57%



Mickey Mantle (MM) v. American League (AL):
(2B+3B)/BIP(2B+3B)/BIP(2B+3B)/H(2B+3B)/H
YearMMALYearMMAL
19516.30%5.92%195117.58%19.68%
195210.60%5.65%195225.73%19.22%
19537.71%5.87%195319.85%19.31%
19547.02%5.57%195417.79%18.81%
19559.33%5.34%195522.78%17.70%
19566.99%5.73%195614.36%18.59%
19579.24%5.55%195719.65%18.41%
19586.13%5.48%195813.92%18.06%
19596.99%5.57%195917.53%18.43%
19606.27%5.68%196015.86%18.65%
19616.23%5.78%196113.50%18.74%
19625.90%5.79%196213.22%18.75%
19636.35%5.52%196314.81%18.12%
19648.16%5.54%196419.15%17.91%
19654.87%5.58%196514.13%18.56%
19665.49%5.57%196613.54%18.68%
19675.48%5.33%196715.74%18.13%
19684.63%5.11%196814.56%17.90%
Min4.63%5.11%Min13.22%17.70%
Max10.60%5.92%Max25.73%19.68%
Ave6.87%5.59%Ave16.87%18.54%



It's the same basic pattern as in the previous post, which only used doubles.  The primary thing that boosts Mantle above league average using BIP is the removal of his many strike outs.  A batter cannot hit a double if he strikes out.  Given the baseball nature of the word hit, a batter cannot do anything if he strikes out.  That logic would apply to fouling out.  Those at bats should be subtracted, too, in the BIP equation to be consistent.  In terms of extra base hits, also subtract grounders to second and short; almost none would be an extra base hit.  We could also subtract most fly outs in fair territory.  And scratch hits.  And grounders to the pitcher ...

I think in the next post I'll go back to comparing Mantle to other home run hitters, those who hit at least 350 homers.  How do I know that Mantle is was big home run hitter?  I look at his total: 536.  I don't need to consider those same strike outs that supposedly cloud one's judgement in looking at his paltry 344 doubles.

Unlike a base on balls, a strike out is not an absence of opportunity.  In fact it means that the batter had at least three opportunities in the plate appearance but he failed on all.

No comments: