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Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Are 14.5% of a team's innings much more important than the rest? Chapman/Miller/Betances

162 games * 9 innings = 1,458 innings

212 innings / 1,458 = 14.5%

212 innings is about the most that the Yankees can reasonably expect from their three monster relief pitchers. Here are their 2015 innings and games, all in relief:

Aroldis Chapman 66, 65 with Cincinnati
Andrew Miller 62, 60
Dellin Betances 84 (most of any pitcher who did not start), 74

66+62+84=212

2015 pitchers with at least 212 innings:
Rk Player IP Year Age Tm Lg G GS CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV H R ER BB SO ERA FIP ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str
1 Clayton Kershaw 232.2 2015 27 LAD NL 33 33 4 3 0 16 7 .696 0 163 62 55 42 301 2.13 1.99 175 15 890 839 26 2 1 5 4 0 8 7 9 9 3 9 .194 .237 .284 .521 49 3392 2303
2 Dallas Keuchel 232.0 2015 27 HOU AL 33 33 3 2 0 20 8 .714 0 185 68 64 51 216 2.48 2.91 162 17 911 854 28 2 0 2 1 3 21 5 0 0 0 9 .217 .262 .314 .575 58 3492 2203
3 Jake Arrieta 229.0 2015 29 CHC NL 33 33 4 3 0 22 6 .786 0 150 52 45 48 236 1.77 2.35 222 10 870 811 32 4 2 6 4 1 15 27 6 1 0 6 .185 .236 .271 .507 43 3438 2236
4 Max Scherzer 228.2 2015 30 WSN NL 33 33 4 3 0 14 12 .538 0 176 74 71 34 276 2.79 2.77 144 27 899 847 40 3 2 5 11 2 5 6 2 0 1 10 .208 .242 .358 .600 63 3359 2380
5 Zack Greinke 222.2 2015 31 LAD NL 32 32 1 0 0 19 3 .864 0 148 43 41 40 200 1.66 2.76 225 14 843 790 22 3 1 5 6 2 15 7 6 2 0 7 .187 .231 .276 .507 45 3239 2078
6 Corey Kluber 222.0 2015 29 CLE AL 32 32 4 0 0 9 16 .360 0 189 92 86 45 245 3.49 2.97 122 22 886 819 45 2 3 11 7 4 18 16 7 0 1 6 .231 .279 .371 .650 73 3273 2231
7 David Price 220.1 2015 29 TOT AL 32 32 3 1 0 18 5 .783 0 190 70 60 47 225 2.45 2.78 161 17 888 826 40 4 2 3 4 8 17 0 2 1 0 4 .230 .271 .350 .621 71 3388 2322
8 Madison Bumgarner 218.1 2015 25 SFG NL 32 32 4 2 0 18 9 .667 0 181 73 71 39 234 2.93 2.87 129 21 869 814 30 5 2 7 5 4 11 5 4 1 0 1 .222 .263 .349 .612 73 3312 2210
9 John Lackey 218.0 2015 36 STL NL 33 33 1 0 0 13 10 .565 0 211 71 67 53 175 2.77 3.57 143 21 896 824 32 2 5 4 11 4 29 9 3 0 3 5 .256 .303 .376 .679 89 3127 2139
10 R.A. Dickey 214.1 2015 40 TOR AL 33 33 2 0 0 11 11 .500 0 195 97 93 61 126 3.91 4.48 101 25 884 798 37 8 1 11 3 11 18 6 4 3 2 9 .244 .303 .405 .708 94 3264 2144
11 Jeff Samardzija 214.0 2015 30 CHW AL 32 32 2 2 0 11 13 .458 0 228 122 118 49 163 4.96 4.23 79 29 910 836 40 9 0 12 4 9 17 12 4 0 0 5 .273 .319 .446 .765 112 3339 2242
12 Cole Hamels 212.1 2015 31 TOT ML 32 32 2 1 0 13 8 .619 0 190 88 86 62 215 3.65 3.47 112 22 880 800 35 2 3 10 6 2 19 24 3 2 4 9 .238 .300 .369 .669 84 3343 2191
13 Johnny Cueto 212.0 2015 29 TOT ML 32 32 2 2 0 11 13 .458 0 194 87 81 46 176 3.44 3.53 117 21 866 803 44 5 1 8 5 4 18 3 2 1 4 0 .242 .288 .387 .675 86 3268 2148
14 Chris Archer 212.0 2015 26 TBR AL 34 34 1 1 0 12 13 .480 0 175 85 76 66 252 3.23 2.90 122 19 868 795 31 0 0 3 2 2 10 7 8 0 0 13 .220 .282 .331 .613 71 3449 2241
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/10/2016.

Would you trade Chapman/Miller/Betances for one of the starters above? For Kershaw or Greinke?

The most games that the three relievers can pitch together would be about 60. Kershaw or Greinke could start about 32 games, about half. There's no simple formula for comparing, but some general points:
- trading three for one introduces a single point of failure, if the one gets injured
- the three can have the most impact in specific games if all three pitch: high impact in one third of the innings in 60 games; other scenarios are scattered
- the one starting pitcher can have somewhat less impact on seven innings (77%) of a bit more than half as many games.

I'd trade Chapman/Miller/Betances for Kershaw or Greinke in a minute. How about you?

1 comment:

Rich Griggs said...

Absolutely, in a New York minute. Would love to see Kershaw in N.Y. (2018) I too have been wondering exactly how the Yankees planned to effectively use their big 3 during the season since the trade for Chapman. They would be potentially devastating in the playoffs, but my real hope was that Cashman was going to package Miller and Gardner with someone else to acquire more starting depth...maybe Jose Fernandez. He is not on the list, but clear more salary out, be the replacement for Nova.