About Me

My photo

Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Offensive WAR (oWAR) anomaly: Eddie Stanky 1950.

I was minding my own business, cruising through top ten per year in oWAR:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_off_top_ten.shtml

Statistic Description: Offensive Wins Above Replacement (everything but Fielding) The same statistic as Wins Above Replacement for Position Players (WAR), but with the fielding value excluded. oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR. Adding would count positions twice. Contains the factor for batting stats, baserunning, a positional adjustment, and the replacement player adjustment. Factors developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com

This statistic is computed from play-by-play data which is only complete from 1974 to the present. From 1938-1973, the data is incomplete, though for most seasons only less than 20 games per season total are missing. Please see our page on data coverage for a full view of the data used to create these lists.


This table lists the MLB top ten for each season in this category. When possible we have used the leaderboard standards at that time to compute the top ten players for this statistic.

_________________
Image result for Eddie Stanky
When suddenly I noticed Eddie Stanky number two in oWAR in 1950, his first season as a Giant. So I checked top ten per year in OPS+:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_top_ten.shtml

Statistic Description: OPS+ 100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1] Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
_________________

Sure enough, Stanky was nowhere to be found in 1950. So I ran ad hoc queries. oWAR is a total and OPS+ is an average. I wanted to see some underlying data.

For 1950, oWAR>=5, sorted by greatest Offensive WAR

Rk Player oWAR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Stan Musial 7.7 1950 29 STL NL 146 645 555 105 192 41 7 28 109 87 36 3 0 11 5 .346 .437 .596 1.034 3789/H
2 Eddie Stanky 6.7 1950 34 NYG NL 152 692 527 115 158 25 5 8 51 144 50 12 8 8 9 .300 .460 .412 .872 *4/H
3 Jackie Robinson 6.6 1950 31 BRO NL 144 613 518 99 170 39 4 14 81 80 24 5 10 11 12 .328 .423 .500 .923 *4/H
4 Ralph Kiner 6.4 1950 27 PIT NL 150 672 547 112 149 21 6 47 118 122 79 3 0 22 2 .272 .408 .590 .998 *7
5 Andy Pafko 6.4 1950 29 CHC NL 146 595 514 95 156 24 8 36 92 69 32 11 1 9 4 .304 .397 .591 .989 *89/H
6 Duke Snider 6.2 1950 23 BRO NL 152 684 620 109 199 31 10 31 107 58 79 0 6 9 16 .321 .379 .553 .932 *8/H
7 Larry Doby 6.2 1950 26 CLE AL 142 609 503 110 164 25 5 25 102 98 71 6 2 9 8 6 .326 .442 .545 .986 *8/H
8 Sid Gordon 5.9 1950 32 BSN NL 134 561 481 78 146 33 4 27 103 78 31 2 1 14 2 .304 .403 .557 .960 *75/H
9 Earl Torgeson 5.7 1950 26 BSN NL 156 707 576 120 167 30 3 23 87 119 69 1 8 10 15 .290 .412 .472 .885 *3/H
10 Phil Rizzuto 5.6 1950 32 NYY AL 155 735 617 125 200 36 7 7 66 92 39 7 19 6 12 8 .324 .418 .439 .857 *6
11 Yogi Berra 5.5 1950 25 NYY AL 151 656 597 116 192 30 6 28 124 55 12 4 0 11 4 2 .322 .383 .533 .915 *2/H
12 Joe DiMaggio 5.2 1950 35 NYY AL 139 606 525 114 158 33 10 32 122 80 33 1 0 14 0 0 .301 .394 .585 .979 *8/H3
13 Bob Elliott 5.2 1950 33 BSN NL 142 601 531 94 162 28 5 24 107 68 67 2 1 18 2 .305 .386 .512 .898 *5/H
14 Al Rosen 5.0 1950 26 CLE AL 155 668 554 100 159 23 4 37 116 100 72 10 4 27 5 7 .287 .405 .543 .948 *5/H
15 Eddie Yost 5.0 1950 23 WSH AL 155 730 573 114 169 26 2 11 58 141 63 8 9 13 6 6 .295 .440 .405 .845 *5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/1/2016.

I used oWAR 5 to include DiMaggio in his last big season when he led the American League (AL) in slugging average (SLG) way down at number 12 and Eddie Yost, the Walking Man, who led the AL with 141 BB. Stanky led the National League with 144 BB, 12 HBP and .460 OBP. Dobby led AL with .442 OBP.

For 1950, OPS+>=130 and Qualified for league batting title), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+
Rk Player OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Stan Musial 164 1950 29 STL NL 146 645 555 105 192 41 7 28 109 87 36 3 0 11 5 .346 .437 .596 1.034 3789/H
2 Andy Pafko 157 1950 29 CHC NL 146 595 514 95 156 24 8 36 92 69 32 11 1 9 4 .304 .397 .591 .989 *89/H
3 Sid Gordon 156 1950 32 BSN NL 134 561 481 78 146 33 4 27 103 78 31 2 1 14 2 .304 .403 .557 .960 *75/H
4 Ralph Kiner 156 1950 27 PIT NL 150 672 547 112 149 21 6 47 118 122 79 3 0 22 2 .272 .408 .590 .998 *7
5 Larry Doby 156 1950 26 CLE AL 142 609 503 110 164 25 5 25 102 98 71 6 2 9 8 6 .326 .442 .545 .986 *8/H
6 Joe DiMaggio 151 1950 35 NYY AL 139 606 525 114 158 33 10 32 122 80 33 1 0 14 0 0 .301 .394 .585 .979 *8/H3
7 Al Rosen 145 1950 26 CLE AL 155 668 554 100 159 23 4 37 116 100 72 10 4 27 5 7 .287 .405 .543 .948 *5/H
8 Del Ennis 141 1950 25 PHI NL 153 655 595 92 185 34 8 31 126 56 59 2 1 25 2 .311 .372 .551 .923 *97/H8
9 Hoot Evers 141 1950 29 DET AL 143 610 526 100 170 35 11 21 103 71 40 4 9 17 5 9 .323 .408 .551 .959 *7/H8
10 Bob Elliott 140 1950 33 BSN NL 142 601 531 94 162 28 5 24 107 68 67 2 1 18 2 .305 .386 .512 .898 *5/H
11 Jackie Robinson 139 1950 31 BRO NL 144 613 518 99 170 39 4 14 81 80 24 5 10 11 12 .328 .423 .500 .923 *4/H
12 Duke Snider 139 1950 23 BRO NL 152 684 620 109 199 31 10 31 107 58 79 0 6 9 16 .321 .379 .553 .932 *8/H
13 Earl Torgeson 138 1950 26 BSN NL 156 707 576 120 167 30 3 23 87 119 69 1 8 10 15 .290 .412 .472 .885 *3/H
14 Vic Wertz 137 1950 25 DET AL 149 657 559 99 172 37 4 27 123 91 55 4 3 13 0 1 .308 .408 .533 .941 *9/H
15 Yogi Berra 135 1950 25 NYY AL 151 656 597 116 192 30 6 28 124 55 12 4 0 11 4 2 .322 .383 .533 .915 *2/H
16 Walt Dropo 134 1950 27 BOS AL 136 609 559 101 180 28 8 34 144 45 75 5 0 16 0 0 .322 .378 .583 .961 *3/H
17 Roy Campanella 134 1950 28 BRO NL 126 494 437 70 123 19 3 31 89 55 51 2 0 17 1 .281 .364 .551 .916 *2/H
18 Eddie Stanky 130 1950 34 NYG NL 152 692 527 115 158 25 5 8 51 144 50 12 8 8 9 .300 .460 .412 .872 *4/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/1/2016.

Because it's a total oWAR will favor players who play more. OPS+ in addition to being an average treats SLG the same as OBP when it should give a bit more weight to OBP; that bias is not great.

Musial is number one on both lists. DiMaggio rises from 12 to 6. Stanky plummets from 2 to 18. Yost had OPS+ 122.

What's the difference? Base running. 1950 was the last season the NL did not have caught stealing (CS). Stanky stole 9 bases. That doesn't seem like it should be enough to boost him so much. While his OBP was .460 his SLG was only .412. DiMaggio was like a DH: zero steal attempts.

Maybe Stanky was really good at going from first to third. Stanky was 34 years old. Many players were in about the same relative position.

WAR may be even more confusing than you think. Sunday, August 16, 2015

And this mess doesn't even get into my not trusting the fielding data.
____________________

wRC+ v. OPS+: top 25 in 2013 Tuesday, December 3, 2013

wRC+ is the new rage and supposedly more accurate.  OPS+ is easier to find and easier to understand...


Top three are the same guys.
____________________

wRC+ v. OPS+ top 25 career. Wednesday, December 4, 2013

No comments: