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Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Tyler Austin and/or Aaron Judge? What plan, if any, do the Yankees have?

2016 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders:

Tyler Austin:
Positions: Rightfielder, First Baseman and Third Baseman
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6' 2", Weight: 220 lb.
Born: September 6, 1991

Drafted by the New York Yankees in the 13th round of the 2010 MLB June Amateur Draft from Heritage HS (Conyers, GA).
2106 AAA: 223 PA, 1.054 OPS

Aaron Judge:
Positions: Outfielder and Designated Hitter
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6' 7", Weight: 275 lb.
Born: April 26, 1992

Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 31st round of the 2010 MLB June Amateur Draft from Linden HS (Linden, CA) and the New York Yankees in the 1st round (32nd) of the 2013 MLB June Amateur Draft from California State University Fresno (Fresno, CA).
2106 AAA: 394 PA, .831 POS

Duh. So, other than height, why isn't Austin valued more highly now than Judge? Why haven't both been called up to play on the Yankees, Austin at first in place of Mark Teixeira and Judge in right in place of Aaron Hicks? Yankee general manager Brian Cashman doesn't give a damn about Teixeira but he has a vested interest in Hicks, whom Cashman continues to insist is a good ball player. Hicks in 2016 with the Yankees: 255 PA, .559 OPS. Gee, even Alex Rodriguez is higher: 234 PA, .609 OPS. And Cashman has banished Rodriguez, except for that gratutitous ballpark packing final game against Tampa Aug. 12.

And for the more delusional Yankee fans and New York media, the potential heir to the Eric Byrnes throne of screwball average player:

Clint Frazier:
Position: Outfielder
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6' 1", Weight: 190 lb.
Born: September 6, 1994

Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 1st round (5th) of the 2013 MLB June Amateur Draft from Loganville HS (Loganville, GA).
2106 AAA: 46 PA, .551 OPS

Austin: 2010 draft round 13 out of high school; AAA 522 PA, .802 OPS
Judge: 2013 draft round one (32) out of college; AAA 654 PA, .771 OPS
Frazier: 2013 draft round one (5) out of high school; AAA 46 PA, .551 OPS

Why, you may ask, does Frazier have so few AAA PA when he was drafted and turned pro the same year as Judge? Frazier is almost 2.5 years younger but some think that players should be evaluated not on age but experience. Frazier was supposedly the key player received by the Yankees for lefty relief ace Andrew Miller:
Frazier was promoted by Cleveland to AAA in late July and played five games before Cashman grabbed him. Maybe Cleveland promoted Frazier to enhance his value. One prominent writer in the New York Post mentioned today that Frazier might be in the Yankee outfield in 2017. Maybe. Or maybe that writer did not do his homework.


Michael Lynch said...

Why Austin isn't valued as high as Judge is based on athleticism, power potential and the three prior years of wrist injury with mediocre numbers and loss of power. Why one of them isn't up playing for Hicks is beyond me.
Frazier age is younger than the average player in AA let alone AAA, so don't understand the grousing about that.

Kenneth Matinale said...


Choosing projection window based on level, rather than age

In my previous model, I projected out based on a player’s age. If a player were 22, I projected him through age 28; If he were 24, I projected through age 30. This resulted in KATOH undervaluing players who were old for their level. The goal of KATOH is to predict the value a player will generate during his six-plus years of team control. By projecting a 22-year-old through age 28, KATOH failed to capture some of that value in cases where the 22-year-old was still in A-ball.

This time around, I chose my windows based on level, rather than age. I projected the next six seasons for players in Triple-A. I did the next seven for players in Double-A, eight for A-ballers, and nine for Rookie ballers.