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Saturday, September 10, 2016

Joe Girardi v. Pythag.

In his eight years managing the Yankees, Joe Girardi is plus 22 wins over the number projected by the Pythag equation:

What is pythagorean winning percentage?

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculate by
(Runs Scored)^1.83
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(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.
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Here are Girardi's numbers, not including today's game. Data is from baseball-reference.com.

PythPyth
WLWLDifDif%Fin
2006Marlins78848082-2-2.56%4
2008Yankees8973877522.25%3
2009Yankees10359956787.77%1WS
2010Yankees95679765-2-2.11%2ALCS
2011Yankees976510161-4-4.12%1ALDS
2012Yankees9567956700.00%1ALCS
2013Yankees8577798367.06%3
2014Yankees8478778578.33%2
2015Yankees87758874-1-1.15%2WC
2016Yankees7565697168.00%
Yankees22


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