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Monday, October 3, 2016

Likely 2017 Yankees ranked on "wins above average" by position among the 30 teams.

Wins above average, NOT Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Check with baseball-reference.com about the difference.

Anyway, I had considered building my own spreadsheet showing the relative position of the Yankee starting players in WAR and OPS+. That would have been a lot of work and the matrix works pretty well in showing team strengths and weaknesses. I highlighted the Yankees (NYY) in BOLD. Below the matrix is a list of the headers and the rank of the Yankees among the 30 teams.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml

Rk Total P
(pitch+bat)
Starters
(pitch)
Relievers
(pitching)
Non-P C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF OF
(LF+CF+RF)
DH PH
1
27.7
WSN
14.3
CHC
9.5
BAL
4.8
CHC
18.3
WSN
2.0
ATL
4.3
SEA
4.7
TOR
4.5
LAD
3.9
PIT
2.9
LAA
7.3
BOS
7.1
BOS
10.1
BOS
2.6
CHC
0.4
2
18.1
CLE
12.7
WSN
9.4
CLE
3.9
BOS
16.2
SFG
1.8
CHC
4.1
HOU
4.6
SEA
4.4
HOU
3.7
MIA
2.2
TBR
3.3
CHW
2.4
LAA
5.7
SEA
1.4
KCR
0.0
3
14.8
NYM
11.9
NYM
9.4
WSN
3.6
HOU
7.2
MIL
1.0
ARI
2.7
MIN
3.9
COL
4.2
CLE
3.3
CHC
2.0
BOS
3.1
HOU
2.4
CHC
5.1
TOR
1.0
STL
0.0
4
12.3
CHC
9.4
CLE
8.9
STL
2.4
LAD
6.0
STL
1.0
SFG
2.5
WSN
3.4
CHC
3.7
CHC
2.7
MIL
1.4
CHC
2.7
MIA
0.8
MIA
4.1
MIL
0.1
BOS
-0.1
5
12.2
SFG
8.0
TOR
6.0
OAK
2.1
STL
4.4
MIA
0.8
DET
2.2
DET
3.4
TEX
3.4
SFG
2.5
NYY
0.7
COL
2.0
KCR
0.8
KCR
1.9
MIA
0.1
LAD
-0.2
6
8.9
BAL
6.5
SFG
5.6
NYM
2.0
LAA
4.2
LAD
0.6
CIN
1.6
COL
3.1
BAL
2.8
STL
2.2
CIN
0.6
PHI
1.9
LAA
0.8
CHW
0.9
SFG
0.1
CLE
-0.3
7
8.3
TOR
4.9
DET
4.6
KCR
1.9
SFG
4.2
KCR
0.5
SDP
0.7
BOS
3.0
LAD
2.5
LAA
2.1
SDP
0.5
LAD
1.8
STL
0.7
HOU
0.6
CLE
0.0
PIT
-0.3
8
7.3
NYY
4.3
TEX
3.7
SEA
1.8
MIA
4.0
PHI
0.5
BOS
0.7
ARI
2.8
WSN
2.2
TEX
1.5
CHW
0.2
KCR
1.8
CHC
0.4
PIT
0.6
CHC
0.0
SFG
-0.4
9
7.1
STL
3.9
NYY
3.6
PIT
1.7
SEA
3.2
NYY
0.4
BAL
0.5
CHC
2.1
MIA
1.6
BAL
1.5
CLE
0.1
ATL
1.7
SFG
-0.1
TBR
0.2
HOU
0.0
MIA
-0.4
10
3.6
TEX
3.5
COL
2.8
LAD
1.7
COL
2.9
ARI
0.3
CHW
0.4
CLE
1.7
TBR
1.4
BOS
1.3
NYM
0.0
MIA
1.1
PIT
-0.1
STL
0.0
ATL
0.0
TBR
-0.5
11
3.1
DET
3.2
BAL
1.7
MIL
1.7
TOR
2.2
TEX
0.3
STL
0.0
TBR
1.6
HOU
1.3
COL
1.2
BOS
-0.1
TOR
1.1
MIN
-0.2
ATL
-0.1
ARI
0.0
WSN
-0.5
12
2.8
LAD
2.9
BOS
1.6
SFG
1.2
TBR
0.7
SEA
0.2
LAA
-0.1
STL
1.4
PIT
1.1
TOR
1.1
HOU
-0.5
STL
0.7
CLE
-0.3
NYM
-0.1
NYM
0.0
BAL
-0.7
13
2.2
KCR
2.0
CHW
1.2
NYY
0.9
WSN
0.5
OAK
0.2
LAD
-0.1
TOR
1.1
CHW
1.0
CHW
0.9
TEX
-0.6
CIN
0.5
LAD
-0.3
CIN
-0.3
PIT
0.0
DET
-0.7
14
1.8
BOS
1.9
LAD
0.8
MIA
0.3
DET
-0.4
CHC
0.2
TBR
-0.2
NYM
1.1
SFG
0.8
OAK
0.7
KCR
-0.7
NYY
0.3
NYM
-0.4
LAD
-0.3
SDP
-0.1
TOR
-0.8
15
1.1
MIL
1.8
MIL
0.6
BOS
0.3
CLE
-0.4
LAA
-0.1
MIN
-0.3
PHI
0.8
MIL
0.6
NYM
0.7
SEA
-0.8
NYM
0.3
ATL
-0.4
MIL
-0.8
COL
-0.1
CHW
-0.8
16
1.1
PIT
1.2
STL
0.2
SDP
-0.2
ARI
-0.4
HOU
-0.4
PIT
-0.7
MIA
0.1
NYY
0.6
MIL
0.3
DET
-0.8
SDP
0.3
COL
-0.4
NYY
-1.0
STL
-0.1
MIN
-0.8
17
0.1
CHW
0.7
KCR
0.1
TEX
-0.3
CHW
-0.6
COL
-0.5
CLE
-0.7
TEX
0.0
ARI
0.3
NYY
0.1
OAK
-0.8
MIL
0.0
OAK
-0.5
SDP
-1.1
WSN
-0.1
NYM
-0.8
18
0.0
SEA
0.4
PHI
0.0
CHW
-0.6
PIT
-1.7
BOS
-0.8
MIL
-1.1
BAL
-0.1
SDP
0.3
WSN
0.0
SFG
-1.1
TEX
0.0
WSN
-0.6
CLE
-1.2
CIN
-0.1
NYY
-0.8
19
-0.5
OAK
0.1
PIT
-0.6
CHC
-1.0
MIL
-1.8
TBR
-1.1
KCR
-1.4
CHW
-0.1
OAK
0.1
DET
-0.1
TBR
-1.2
MIN
-0.3
SEA
-0.6
COL
-1.6
TBR
-0.1
LAA
-0.9
20
-1.7
COL
-1.8
SEA
-1.2
DET
-1.2
TEX
-2.4
DET
-1.2
TOR
-1.4
PIT
-0.1
STL
-0.1
CIN
-0.1
ATL
-1.4
DET
-0.5
TOR
-1.3
TOR
-1.8
PHI
-0.2
ARI
-0.9
21
-2.7
MIA
-2.2
TBR
-1.4
ATL
-1.3
BAL
-3.4
CIN
-1.4
TEX
-1.5
LAD
-0.2
CLE
-0.3
ARI
-0.2
STL
-1.4
ARI
-0.7
DET
-1.3
MIN
-2.2
LAA
-0.2
TEX
-1.0
22
-2.9
TBR
-3.4
CIN
-1.5
HOU
-1.4
CIN
-4.2
PIT
-1.4
HOU
-1.6
SDP
-0.4
BOS
-0.6
TBR
-0.6
TOR
-1.6
WSN
-0.8
CIN
-1.4
SEA
-2.3
LAD
-0.2
HOU
-1.0
23
-3.3
ATL
-3.7
OAK
-1.7
TOR
-1.4
NYM
-4.6
TOR
-1.5
MIA
-1.7
MIL
-0.5
CIN
-0.7
MIA
-0.6
MIN
-1.7
SEA
-0.9
BAL
-1.6
TEX
-2.3
DET
-0.5
SDP
-1.3
24
-9.0
SDP
-4.3
ATL
-2.1
TBR
-1.9
MIN
-4.7
MIN
-1.5
COL
-1.8
SFG
-0.8
LAA
-0.7
PHI
-0.8
LAD
-1.8
CLE
-1.0
TEX
-1.7
SFG
-2.3
BAL
-0.6
MIL
-1.4
25
-10.8
PHI
-4.8
MIA
-2.2
LAA
-2.8
KCR
-4.9
CHW
-1.6
SEA
-2.1
NYY
-1.0
DET
-0.9
PIT
-0.9
BAL
-2.0
SFG
-1.1
TBR
-1.9
DET
-2.6
OAK
-0.9
SEA
-1.4
26
-10.9
HOU
-5.0
HOU
-3.5
MIN
-3.6
NYY
-6.0
BAL
-1.6
OAK
-2.1
KCR
-1.2
PHI
-1.0
MIN
-1.4
WSN
-2.2
HOU
-1.3
SDP
-1.9
WSN
-3.6
KCR
-1.0
COL
-1.6
27
-11.2
CIN
-7.0
SDP
-3.9
COL
-4.2
ATL
-7.1
SDP
-2.0
NYM
-2.1
CIN
-1.6
NYM
-1.2
SEA
-1.7
LAA
-2.4
BAL
-1.6
NYY
-2.0
OAK
-4.0
MIN
-1.0
CIN
-1.6
28
-12.9
LAA
-7.5
ARI
-3.9
CIN
-4.8
SDP
-8.6
ATL
-2.2
NYY
-2.8
LAA
-1.6
MIN
-1.4
ATL
-2.0
ARI
-2.7
CHW
-1.7
ARI
-2.0
PHI
-4.6
CHW
-1.3
OAK
-1.7
29
-16.0
ARI
-8.6
LAA
-4.6
PHI
-5.3
OAK
-11.0
NYM
-2.2
WSN
-2.9
ATL
-2.9
KCR
-1.5
KCR
-2.2
COL
-3.2
PIT
-2.2
MIL
-2.2
BAL
-5.2
NYY
-1.5
ATL
-2.0
30
-16.0
MIN
-11.3
MIN
-7.7
ARI
-5.3
PHI
-11.2
CLE
-2.9
PHI
-3.1
OAK
-3.3
ATL
-2.2
SDP
-4.7
PHI
-4.3
OAK
-2.7
PHI
-2.2
ARI
-5.4
TEX
-2.8
PHI
-2.8
AVG
1.2
1.1
1.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
0.8
0.9
0.5
-0.7
0.5
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-0.8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/3/2016.

Rank, Value, Primary Yankee player and age in 2017
Rk 20 -1.7
P (pitch+bat) 8 4.3
Starters (pitch) 9 3.6 Tanaka (28), Sabathia (36), Pineda (28)
Relievers (pitching) 13 0.9
Non-P 26 -6.0
C 9 0.9 Brian McCann (33) replaced by Gary Sanchez (24)
1B 28 -2.8 Mark Teixeira retiring (37)
2B 25 -1.0 Starlin Castro returning (27)
3B 16 0.6 Chase Headley returning (33)
SS 17 0.1 Didi Gregorius returning (27)
LF 5 0.7 Brett Gardner returning (33)
CF 14 0.3 Jacoby Ellsbury returning (33)
RF 27 -2.0 Carlos Beltran (40) traded for three minor leaguers
OF (LF+CF+RF) 16 -0.1
DH 29 -1.5 Alex Rodriguez (41) released
PH 18 -0.8

The Yankees have fairly marginal and/or aging players returning at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF.

DH is wide open.

C: seems in the best shape for the foreseeable future with Gary Sanchez coming back at age 24 for his first full season with the Yankees. Sanchez slumped at the end but still finished with OPS+168 and 20 home runs in 229 plate appearances (PA). Sanchez also looked good behind the plate with a powerful throwing arm. McCann may be back because he is untradable, unless the Yankees want to eat most of the two remaining years on the ridiculous contract that GM Brian Cashman gave him: $17 million per year for five years.

1B: probably Greg Bird (24) who missed all of 2016 with an injured arm and/or Tyler Austin (25) OPS+ 99 and 5 HR in 90 PA. In late 2015 Bird had OPS+ 135 and 11 HR in 178 PA.

RF: very conventional wisdom has Cashman staying with Aaron Judge (25): OPS+ 61, 4 HR, in 95 PA; 42 SO in 84 AB.

Both Austin and Judge will be 25 year old rookies in 2017 since neither reached the rookie threshold of 130 PA.

My motto is always add pitching.

The starting nine non-pitchers looks mediocre and needs more home run hitters.

The Yankees finished 84-78 but their Pythag was 79-83, so once again manager Joe Girardi covered up the blundering of general manager Brian Cashman. During the 2015-2016 off season, of the 30 general managers, Cashman was the only GM who did not sign any free agents. So, for 2017 Cashman has these basic options:
- those ten minor league players Cashman got for Chapman, Miller and Beltran show surprising improvement and play on the Yankees
- trade some of the minor league players for proven veterans
- goes with what he's got
- signs free agents for "big" bucks; supposedly the upcoming free agent class is not as good as the previous when Cashman remained dormant.

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