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Monday, November 21, 2016

Relationships among Home Runs, Strike Outs, Walks.

Yankee "prospect" Gleybar Torres was recently named MVP of the Arizona Fall League (AFL). However, if you check his minor league stats, which top out at A+ ball, you will not find the AFL because it's not really a league. Torres had OPS 1.158 with 3 home runs (HR) and 8 strike outs (SO). See:

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&lid=119&t=l_bat

Torres also had 14 walks, bases on balls (BB). 14 BB is good. Or it's a reflection of the AFL pitching.

Only 8 SO for 3 HR is good. If Torres hit 30 HR, he'd have only 80 SO. The Yankees would sign up for that right now, even if he did not also have 140 BB.

Unfortunately, the minor league numbers of Gleyber Torres do not suggest such optimism. In 2016 at A+ ball, playing first for the Cubs team, then the Yankees after Torres was traded for Aroldis Chapman in late July. Torres had 11 HR, 110 SO. Oh, OPS .775.

That's a ratio of 11 to 1. If Torres managed 22 HR and 220 SO, I don't think the Yankees would sign up for that. Torres had 58 BB. His numbers came in 547 plate appearances (PA), including 478 at bats (AB). In other words, Torres played pretty much a full season so doubling his HR and SO numbers is misleading. The 11 HR suggest that Torres is not much of a power hitter, at least not yet.

But the relationship raises questions. That's still a lot of SO per HR and Torres had about two SO per BB.

Here are the nine seasons in which a player had at least 200 SO:

Rk Player SO Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Mark Reynolds 223 2009 25 ARI NL 155 662 578 98 150 30 1 44 102 76 3 5 0 3 8 24 9 .260 .349 .543 .892 *53/H
2 Adam Dunn 222 2012 32 CHW AL 151 649 539 87 110 19 0 41 96 105 3 1 0 4 8 2 1 .204 .333 .468 .800 *D3/7H
3 Chris Davis 219 2016 30 BAL AL 157 665 566 99 125 21 0 38 84 88 3 8 0 3 6 1 0 .221 .332 .459 .792 *3/9D
4 Chris Carter 212 2013 26 HOU AL 148 585 506 64 113 24 2 29 82 70 1 4 0 5 8 2 0 .223 .320 .451 .770 37D/H9
5 Mark Reynolds 211 2010 26 ARI NL 145 596 499 79 99 17 2 32 85 83 7 9 0 5 8 7 4 .198 .320 .433 .753 *5/3H
6 Chris Davis 208 2015 29 BAL AL 160 670 573 100 150 31 0 47 117 84 6 8 0 5 6 2 3 .262 .361 .562 .923 *39D
7 Chris Carter 206 2016 29 MIL NL 160 644 549 84 122 27 1 41 94 76 1 9 0 10 18 3 1 .222 .321 .499 .821 *3/HD
8 Drew Stubbs 205 2011 26 CIN NL 158 681 604 92 147 22 3 15 44 63 1 7 6 1 2 40 10 .243 .321 .364 .686 *8/H
9 Mark Reynolds 204 2008 24 ARI NL 152 613 539 87 129 28 3 28 97 64 0 3 1 6 10 11 2 .239 .320 .458 .779 *5/H3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/21/2016.

Five players. Four individuals hit at least 40 HR with at least 200 SO. That's about 4 SO per HR. I'm guessing that most teams would find that acceptable if the player hit at least 40 HR. Plus, the OPS of those four seasons ranged from .800 to .923.

Adam Dunn had the one of the nine seasons with at least 100 BB, although his OPS was only .800. Amazingly only two of nine resulted in at least 100 RBI. Yikes.

Here are 11 seasons of at least 150 BB:

Rk Player BB Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Barry Bonds 232 2004 39 SFG NL 147 617 373 129 135 27 3 45 101 120 41 9 0 3 5 6 1 .362 .609 .812 1.422 *7/HD
2 Barry Bonds 198 2002 37 SFG NL 143 612 403 117 149 31 2 46 110 68 47 9 0 2 4 9 2 .370 .582 .799 1.381 *7/DH
3 Barry Bonds 177 2001 36 SFG NL 153 664 476 129 156 32 2 73 137 35 93 9 0 2 5 13 3 .328 .515 .863 1.379 *7/DH
4 Babe Ruth 170 1923 28 NYY AL 152 697 522 151 205 45 13 41 130 93 4 3 17 21 .393 .545 .764 1.309 97/83
5 Mark McGwire 162 1998 34 STL NL 155 681 509 130 152 21 0 70 147 28 155 6 0 4 8 1 0 .299 .470 .752 1.222 *3/H
6 Ted Williams 162 1949 30 BOS AL 155 730 566 150 194 39 3 43 159 48 2 0 22 1 1 .343 .490 .650 1.141 *7
7 Ted Williams 162 1947 28 BOS AL 156 692 528 125 181 40 9 32 114 47 2 1 10 0 1 .343 .499 .634 1.133 *7
8 Ted Williams 156 1946 27 BOS AL 150 672 514 142 176 37 8 38 123 44 2 0 12 0 0 .342 .497 .667 1.164 *7
9 Barry Bonds 151 1996 31 SFG NL 158 675 517 122 159 27 3 42 129 30 76 1 0 6 11 40 7 .308 .461 .615 1.076 *7/H8
10 Eddie Yost 151 1956 29 WSH AL 152 684 515 94 119 17 2 11 53 9 82 8 9 1 8 8 5 .231 .412 .336 .748 *5/H9
11 Babe Ruth 150 1920 25 NYY AL 142 616 458 158 172 36 9 54 135 80 3 5 14 14 .376 .532 .847 1.379 *978/3H1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/21/2016.

Five players again obviously skewed by managers being afraid of being fired for pitching to Bonds. Eddie Yost was known as the Walking Man. He was not a slugger and not a great hitter.

In six of the eleven seasons the batter led in HR. Only Yost had fewer than 100 RBI and a OPS well under 1.000: .748.

Only McGwire had more than 100 SO: 155; so he had about two SO per HR. That's about half the ratio of the 200 SO batters.

Bonds in 2004 had BB to SO of almost 6 to 1. Others were around 4-1, 3-1. The big boppers skew this.

Five players hit at least 60 HR:

Rk Player HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Barry Bonds 73 2001 36 SFG NL 153 664 476 129 156 32 2 137 177 35 93 9 0 2 5 13 3 .328 .515 .863 1.379 *7/DH
2 Mark McGwire 70 1998 34 STL NL 155 681 509 130 152 21 0 147 162 28 155 6 0 4 8 1 0 .299 .470 .752 1.222 *3/H
3 Sammy Sosa 66 1998 29 CHC NL 159 722 643 134 198 20 0 158 73 14 171 1 0 5 20 18 9 .308 .377 .647 1.024 *9/8
4 Mark McGwire 65 1999 35 STL NL 153 661 521 118 145 21 1 147 133 21 141 2 0 5 12 0 0 .278 .424 .697 1.120 *3/H
5 Sammy Sosa 64 2001 32 CHC NL 160 711 577 146 189 34 5 160 116 37 153 6 0 12 6 0 2 .328 .437 .737 1.174 *9
6 Sammy Sosa 63 1999 30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24 2 141 78 8 171 3 0 6 17 7 8 .288 .367 .635 1.002 *98
7 Roger Maris 61 1961 26 NYY AL 161 698 590 132 159 16 4 141 94 0 67 7 0 7 16 0 0 .269 .372 .620 .993 *98/H
8 Babe Ruth 60 1927 32 NYY AL 151 691 540 158 192 29 8 165 137 89 0 14 7 6 .356 .486 .772 1.258 *97
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/21/2016.

Only Maris, Ruth and Bonds had fewer than 100 SO, although Ruth led the league; Sosa led the league in SO in two of his three 60 HR seasons. Maris had almost a one to one ratio of HR to SO: 61 to 67.

Five of the eight seasons had at least 100 BB. The ratio between BB and SO varied a lot. McGwire was pretty even in his two seasons. Sosa had more than twice as many SO as BB in 2 of 3.

Even Sosa's worst SO to HR was only 2.7. That seems a lot more reasonable than the 4 to 1 of the 200 SO players.

Let's look at career numbers through 2015. Here are players with at least 500 HR sorted by HR:


First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR
Barry Bonds 9847 762 2558 1539 2.02 .60 3.36
Hank Aaron 12364 755 1402 1383 1.83 .99 1.86
Babe Ruth 8398 714 2062 1330 1.86 .65 2.89
Alex Rodriguez 10341 687 1324 2220 3.23 1.68 1.93
Willie Mays 10881 660 1464 1526 2.31 1.04 2.22
Ken Griffey 9801 630 1312 1779 2.82 1.36 2.08
Jim Thome 8422 612 1747 2548 4.16 1.46 2.85
Sammy Sosa 8813 609 929 2306 3.79 2.48 1.53
Frank Robinson 10006 586 1420 1532 2.61 1.08 2.42
Mark McGwire 6187 583 1317 1596 2.74 1.21 2.26
Harmon Killebrew 8147 573 1559 1699 2.97 1.09 2.72
Rafael Palmeiro 10472 569 1353 1348 2.37 1.00 2.38
Reggie Jackson 9864 563 1375 2597 4.61 1.89 2.44
Albert Pujols 8545 560 1165 978 1.75 .84 2.08
Manny Ramirez 8244 555 1329 1813 3.27 1.36 2.39
Mike Schmidt 8352 548 1507 1883 3.44 1.25 2.75
Mickey Mantle 8102 536 1733 1710 3.19 .99 3.23
Jimmie Foxx 8134 534 1452 1311 2.46 .90 2.72
Willie McCovey 8197 521 1345 1550 2.98 1.15 2.58
Ted Williams 7706 521 2021 709 1.36 .35 3.88
Frank Thomas 8199 521 1667 1397 2.68 .84 3.20
Eddie Mathews 8537 512 1444 1487 2.90 1.03 2.82
Ernie Banks 9421 512 763 1236 2.41 1.62 1.49
Mel Ott 9456 511 1708 896 1.75 .52 3.34
Gary Sheffield 9217 509 1475 1171 2.30 .79 2.90
Eddie Murray 11336 504 1333 1516 3.01 1.14 2.64
David Ortiz 8103 503 1239 1664 3.31 1.34 2.46

SO/HR:
high: Reggie Jackson 4.61
middle (14th lowest): Mark McGwire 2.74
low: Ted Williams 1.36

SO/BB:
high: Sammy Sosa 2.48, way more than second highest Jackson 1.89
middle (14th lowest): Frank Robinson 1.08; Mickey Mantle .99, almost dead even at 10th lowest
low: Ted Williams .35

BB/HR:
high: Ted Williams 3.38
middle (14th lowest): Willie McCovey 2.58
low: Ernie Banks 1.49

Finally, top and bottom five for the 1,028 batters 1903-2015 minimum 4,000 AB:

SO/HR:

playerID First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR MinOfyearID MaxOfyearID
dimagjo01 Joe DiMaggio 6821 361 790 369 1.02 .47 2.19 1936 1951
berrayo01 Yogi Berra 7555 358 704 414 1.16 .59 1.97 1946 1965
kluszte01 Ted Kluszewski 5929 279 492 365 1.31 .74 1.76 1947 1961
willite01 Ted Williams 7706 521 2021 709 1.36 .35 3.88 1939 1960
lombaer01 Ernie Lombardi 5855 190 430 262 1.38 .61 2.26 1931 1947


playerID First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR MinOfyearID MaxOfyearID
bluelu01 Lu Blue 5904 44 1092 436 9.91 .40 24.82 1921 1933
careyma01 Max Carey 9363 70 1040 695 9.93 .67 14.86 1910 1929
severha01 Hank Severeid 4312 17 331 169 9.94 .51 19.47 1911 1926
duganjo01 Joe Dugan 5410 42 250 419 9.98 1.68 5.95 1917 1931
harrebu01 Bud Harrelson 4744 7 633 653 93.29 1.03 90.43 1965 1980

SO/BB:

playerID First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR MinOfyearID MaxOfyearID
seweljo01 Joe Sewell 7132 49 842 114 2.33 .14 17.18 1920 1933
speaktr01 Tris Speaker 10195 117 1381 220 1.88 .16 11.80 1907 1928
devliar01 Art Devlin 4412 10 576 105 10.50 .18 57.60 1904 1913
bridwal01 Al Bridwell 4169 2 557 98 49.00 .18 278.50 1905 1915
titusjo01 John Titus 4960 38 620 116 3.05 .19 16.32 1903 1913


playerID First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR MinOfyearID MaxOfyearID
jonesad01 Adam Jones 4728 196 219 973 4.96 4.44 1.12 2006 2015
patteco01 Corey Patterson 4171 118 206 933 7.91 4.53 1.75 2000 2011
duncama01 Mariano Duncan 4677 87 201 913 10.49 4.54 2.31 1985 1997
armasto01 Tony Armas 5164 251 260 1201 4.78 4.62 1.04 1976 1989
dunstsh01 Shawon Dunston 5927 150 203 1000 6.67 4.93 1.35 1985 2002

BB/HR:

playerID First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR MinOfyearID MaxOfyearID
armasto01 Tony Armas 5164 251 260 1201 4.78 4.62 1.04 1976 1989
gonzaju03 Juan Gonzalez 6556 434 457 1273 2.93 2.79 1.05 1989 2005
jonesad01 Adam Jones 4728 196 219 973 4.96 4.44 1.12 2006 2015
soriaal01 Alfonso Soriano 7750 412 496 1803 4.38 3.64 1.20 1999 2014
willima04 Matt Williams 7000 378 469 1363 3.61 2.91 1.24 1987 2003


playerID First Last AB HR BB SO SO/HR SO/BB BB/HR MinOfyearID MaxOfyearID
galanau01 Augie Galan 5937 100 979 393 3.93 .40 9.79 1934 1949
rosepe01 Pete Rose 14053 160 1566 1143 7.14 .73 9.79 1963 1986
schulfr02 Fred Schulte 4259 47 462 361 7.68 .78 9.83 1927 1937
kreevmi01 Mike Kreevich 4676 45 446 339 7.53 .76 9.91 1931 1945
harrebu01 Bud Harrelson 4744 7 633 653 93.29 1.03 90.43 1965 1980

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