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Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Cut ticket prices in half.

No, this is not some populist rant. Billionaire owners are paying millionaire players. There's lots of money in the professional league.

In 2016 many players will be paid at least $20 million dollars.  That's $20,000,000. Pretty much all of them have received or will receive that in multiple other seasons. I think the last entity to own a team and lose money was CBS, which owned the Yankees from 1964 to 1973 when a group that included George Steinbrenner bought the team.

I'm all for the players getting as much as they can. The players risk their personal well being for our amusement and no matter how much we pretend to be concerned about the players, we really don't give a damn.

The players are the game, not the owners and sure as heck not the fans. The problem is that the owners have so much money that the players feel foolish if they don't get a big chunk of that.

$20,000,000 is way more money than anyone needs in a lifetime. I have no idea what they do with that or even half of it after taxes, etc. Then what do they do with it the next year and the next? The wealth of the owners must be on an even higher level.

Both groups can do quite well with a lot less money. We fans can and should make that happen. It would provide a better balance among the three groups: owners, players, fans.

Obviously, there are two actions:
- don't buy expensive tickets
- don't buy TV sponsor products.

These would be most effective if we fans informed the owners, players AND sponsors of our actions and motives.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Whose contract makes more sense: Jason Heyward or Chris Davis?

Jason Heyward
Photo of Jason Heyward
Position: Rightfielder 
Bats: Left, Throws: Left 
Height: 6' 5", Weight: 245 lb.
Born: August 9, 1989 in Ridgewood, NJ



201626Chicago Cubs$17,500,0006.000
201727Chicago Cubs$24,000,000
201828Chicago Cubs$24,000,000Has right to opt out of contract following 2018 season.
201929Chicago Cubs$22,500,000Has right to opt out of contract following 2019 season if he has 550 PA that year.
202030Chicago Cubs$23,500,000
202131Chicago Cubs$23,500,000
202232Chicago Cubs$24,500,000
202333Chicago Cubs$24,500,000
Earliest Free Agent: 2024

Chris Davis
Photo of Chris Davis
Positions: First Baseman, Third Baseman and Rightfielder 
Bats: Left, Throws: Right 
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 230 lb.
Born: March 17, 1986 in Longview, TX



201630Baltimore Orioles$23,000,0006.061
201731Baltimore Orioles$23,000,000
201832Baltimore Orioles$23,000,000
201933Baltimore Orioles$23,000,000
202034Baltimore Orioles$23,000,000
202135Baltimore Orioles$23,000,000
202236Baltimore Orioles$23,000,000
Earliest Free Agent: 2023
Note that Heyward can opt out after years three and four.

Davis set the Baltimore Orioles record for most home runs in a season with 53 in 2013.  In 2015 Davis hit 47 homers.

Heyward is noted for his fielding and base running.

Fangraphs types love Heyward types and hate Davis types.  Just yesterday on the MLB Network a couple of them were piling on, with Davis being compared to Ryan Howard (Phillies HR record: 58) and Mo Vaughn (1995 AL MVP) by Dave Cameron.  Another Fangrapher said that Davis could hurt his knee and lose his power.  Apparently Heyward cannot hurt his knee or, if he did, he'd still be worth $24,000,000 fielding his position.  I guess losing power for Heyward is not a big deal since he hit only 13 home runs in 2015.  Thirteen.

Davis had a big off year in 2014, which seems to really concern the fangraphers.  Let's look at the last three years.  Since they like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), let's start with that.

From 2013 to 2015, (WAR>=13.4 and At least 1500 plate appearances), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players
Rk Player WAR/pos PA From To Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Mike Trout 26.5 2103 2013 2015 21-23 473 1766 328 535 110 24 104 298 285 30 478 29 0 23 25 60 16 .303 .404 .569 .973 *8/7D LAA
2 Josh Donaldson 23.9 2074 2013 2015 27-29 474 1807 304 513 109 7 94 314 225 7 373 19 3 20 47 19 2 .284 .366 .508 .874 *5/DH63 OAK-TOR
3 Paul Goldschmidt 20.4 1884 2013 2015 25-27 428 1575 281 486 113 6 88 304 281 58 406 7 0 15 51 45 15 .309 .412 .556 .968 *3/HD ARI
4 Andrew McCutchen 19.3 2007 2013 2015 26-28 460 1697 277 522 112 14 69 263 260 32 349 31 0 19 31 56 18 .308 .405 .512 .917 *8/HD PIT
5 Adrian Beltre 18.4 1923 2013 2015 34-36 452 1747 250 540 97 5 67 252 148 29 217 13 0 15 50 3 1 .309 .365 .485 .850 *5/D TEX
6 Miguel Cabrera 17.6 1848 2013 2015 30-32 426 1595 268 529 106 3 87 322 227 44 293 11 0 15 59 5 2 .332 .415 .566 .981 *35/DH DET
7 Robinson Cano 17.5 2020 2013 2015 30-32 473 1824 240 556 112 3 62 268 169 41 260 15 0 12 63 19 10 .305 .366 .471 .838 *4/DH6 NYY-SEA
8 Ian Kinsler 16.7 2015 2013 2015 31-33 451 1853 279 524 106 13 41 237 123 1 218 16 6 17 38 40 21 .283 .330 .420 .750 *4/DH TEX-DET
9 Jason Heyward 16.4 1699 2013 2015 23-25 407 1502 220 412 81 8 38 156 171 8 261 16 1 6 22 45 11 .274 .353 .415 .768 *9/8H ATL-STL
10 Buster Posey 16.3 1823 2013 2015 26-28 445 1624 207 500 90 3 56 256 163 23 191 14 0 22 48 4 2 .308 .371 .470 .842 *2/3HD SFG
11 Manny Machado 16.1 1777 2013 2015 20-22 400 1627 228 461 95 4 61 189 119 4 292 9 13 9 45 28 15 .283 .334 .459 .793 *5/6 BAL
12 Joey Votto 16.1 1693 2013 2015 29-31 382 1346 228 404 79 5 59 176 325 36 322 12 0 10 31 18 7 .300 .438 .498 .935 *3/H CIN
13 Starling Marte 15.8 1744 2013 2015 24-26 423 1584 240 453 85 18 44 172 85 5 392 60 9 6 25 101 36 .286 .345 .446 .790 *7/8H PIT
14 Carlos Gomez 15.6 1711 2013 2015 27-29 410 1545 236 426 90 15 59 202 115 3 388 36 5 10 26 91 28 .276 .338 .468 .806 *8/HD4 MIL-HOU
15 Lorenzo Cain 15.5 1548 2013 2015 27-29 388 1421 210 411 84 13 25 171 94 8 296 20 0 13 35 70 17 .289 .339 .419 .759 *89/HD KCR
16 Jose Bautista 15.3 1867 2013 2015 32-34 426 1548 291 411 80 3 103 290 283 15 286 17 1 18 50 21 6 .266 .381 .521 .902 *9/D38H5 TOR
17 Bryce Harper 14.7 1546 2013 2015 20-22 371 1297 230 384 72 6 75 189 223 23 329 11 6 9 25 19 10 .296 .401 .534 .936 *79/8HD WSN
18 Andrelton Simmons 14.3 1817 2013 2015 23-25 450 1681 180 424 68 12 28 149 111 11 163 9 8 8 60 15 13 .252 .301 .357 .658 *6/H ATL
19 Anthony Rizzo 14.1 2007 2013 2015 23-25 460 1716 254 454 106 6 86 259 227 23 348 51 0 13 29 28 15 .265 .365 .484 .848 *3/H CHC
20 Kyle Seager 13.9 2035 2013 2015 25-27 480 1828 235 484 96 6 73 239 174 10 338 20 1 12 37 22 14 .265 .333 .444 .777 *5/H6D SEA
21 Nolan Arenado 13.6 1646 2013 2015 22-24 401 1534 204 431 106 10 70 243 82 15 240 9 3 18 46 6 6 .281 .318 .500 .818 *5/H COL
22 Alex Gordon 13.6 1765 2013 2015 29-31 416 1550 217 414 79 7 52 203 166 19 359 34 0 15 17 25 11 .267 .348 .428 .776 *7/HD KCR
23 Chris Davis 13.5 1868 2013 2015 27-29 447 1607 268 405 89 1 126 327 216 27 580 27 1 17 12 8 5 .252 .347 .544 .891 *3/9D5H BAL
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/30/2016.

9. Heyward 16.4 with 1,699 PA
23. Davis 13.5 with 1,868 PA

Number 22 left fielder Alex Gordon was the only other free agent among the top 23; Gordon re-signed with Kansas City.  Another free agent OF:
45. Justin Upton 10.4 with 1,904 PA

oWAR + dWAR NOT equal to WAR but let's check them, too.

oWAR:
15. Davis 13
31. Upton 10.4
52. Heyward 8.4
60. Gordon 7.8

For Davis and Upton all their value is in their offense.  For Davis, that's pretty much all in his bat.  About half of Heyward's value is his offense.

dWAR:
6. Heyward 6.1
16. Gordon 4.1

Davis and Upton were negative.

Only six players hit at least 100 home runs in the last three years.
Rk Player HR From To Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Chris Davis 126 2013 2015 27-29 447 1868 1607 268 405 89 1 327 216 27 580 27 1 17 12 8 5 .252 .347 .544 .891 *3/9D5H BAL
2 Nelson Cruz 111 2013 2015 32-34 420 1789 1616 226 454 72 3 277 149 19 413 14 0 10 37 12 8 .281 .345 .535 .880 9D/7 TEX-BAL-SEA
3 Edwin Encarnacion 109 2013 2015 30-32 416 1787 1535 259 418 87 3 313 221 18 242 15 0 16 52 12 3 .272 .366 .546 .912 *3D/5H7 TOR
4 Mike Trout 104 2013 2015 21-23 473 2103 1766 328 535 110 24 298 285 30 478 29 0 23 25 60 16 .303 .404 .569 .973 *8/7D LAA
5 Jose Bautista 103 2013 2015 32-34 426 1867 1548 291 411 80 3 290 283 15 286 17 1 18 50 21 6 .266 .381 .521 .902 *9/D38H5 TOR
6 David Ortiz 102 2013 2015 37-39 425 1816 1564 216 440 102 2 315 228 65 278 4 0 20 55 4 1 .281 .370 .545 .915 *D/3H BOS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/30/2016.

Heyward hit 38 homers total in the last three years.