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Thursday, February 9, 2017

Lowest WAR, OPS+ for Home Run seasons 60, 50, 40, 30.

MLB Network had an interesting question yesterday that led to something related.

Who was the Home Run champ with the lowest WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? WAR includes fielding and base running, although it does not give credit for ...

Mark Trumbo is a great base runner when he homers. Saturday, January 28, 2017

Duh...

... base running as a skill. WAR definitions from baseball-reference.com:

WAR -- Wins Above Replacement
A single number that presents the number of wins the player added
to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add.
Scale for a single-season: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter,
0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Level
Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com

oWAR -- Offensive Wins Above Replacement (everything but Fielding)
The same statistic as Wins Above Replacement for Position
Players (WAR), but with the fielding value excluded.
oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR.
Adding would count positions twice.
Contains the factor for batting stats, baserunning, a positional adjustment, and the replacement player adjustment.
Factors developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com


When Hank Aaron or Mark Trumbo hits a home run he almost never makes out; nor do any teammates who are on base. Almost never.

So why aren't those plate appearances considered in evaluating the base running skill of a player? That skill is extended to runners on base. Players who are otherwise considered slow and/or bad base runners become, not just neutral base runners, but GREAT base runners, who will score almost all the time. You cannot say that about Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines when they attempted to steal a base.
________________________

Oh, the answer was Dave Kingman with the Mets in 1982: 37 HR, .1 (one tenth) WAR. Among the HR champs with the five lowest WAR: 2016 champs: Mark Trumbo (1.6) and Chris Carter (.9), who tied in the National Conference with Nolan Arenado (WAR 6.5).

I don't like WAR but the question got me to think of a batting only version, which can be researched easily on baseball-reference.com

What Home Run champ had the lowest OPS+?

However, since I cannot identify a league leader in a baseball-reference.com ad hoc query, I decided to limit the question to batters with a certain number of HR, rather than league leaders.

FYI: Dave Kingman in 1982 when he had then lowest WAR of any HR champ, had OPS+ 99. So, this idea may have some merit. Besides, it should be fun.

Note: Tony Batista of Toronto is not Jose Bautista later of Toronto.

at least 60 HR in a season:
Since 60 HR have been hit only eight times, there's no need to run separate queries for lowest OPS+ and lowest WAR. Plus, Sammy Sosa in 1999 had the worst of both.

Rk Player OPS+ HR WAR/pos Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Sammy Sosa 151 63 4.8 1999 30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24 2 141 78 8 171 3 0 6 17 7 8 .288 .367 .635 1.002 *98
2 Sammy Sosa 160 66 6.4 1998 29 CHC NL 159 722 643 134 198 20 0 158 73 14 171 1 0 5 20 18 9 .308 .377 .647 1.024 *9/8
3 Roger Maris 167 61 6.9 1961 26 NYY AL 161 698 590 132 159 16 4 141 94 0 67 7 0 7 16 0 0 .269 .372 .620 .993 *98/H
4 Mark McGwire 176 65 5.2 1999 35 STL NL 153 661 521 118 145 21 1 147 133 21 141 2 0 5 12 0 0 .278 .424 .697 1.120 *3/H
5 Sammy Sosa 203 64 10.3 2001 32 CHC NL 160 711 577 146 189 34 5 160 116 37 153 6 0 12 6 0 2 .328 .437 .737 1.174 *9
6 Mark McGwire 216 70 7.5 1998 34 STL NL 155 681 509 130 152 21 0 147 162 28 155 6 0 4 8 1 0 .299 .470 .752 1.222 *3/H
7 Babe Ruth 225 60 12.4 1927 32 NYY AL 151 691 540 158 192 29 8 165 137 89 0 14 7 6 .356 .486 .772 1.258 *97
8 Barry Bonds 259 73 11.9 2001 36 SFG NL 153 664 476 129 156 32 2 137 177 35 93 9 0 2 5 13 3 .328 .515 .863 1.379 *7/DH
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

at least 50 HR in a season: Andruw Jones OPS+ and Prince Fielder WAR
lowest OPS+
Rk Player OPS+ HR WAR/pos Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Andruw Jones 136 51 6.7 2005 28 ATL NL 160 672 586 95 154 24 3 128 64 13 112 15 0 7 19 5 3 .263 .347 .575 .922 *8/H
2 Ken Griffey 150 56 6.6 1998 28 SEA AL 161 720 633 120 180 33 3 146 76 11 121 7 0 4 14 20 5 .284 .365 .611 .977 *8/D379
3 Sammy Sosa 151 63 4.8 1999 30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24 2 141 78 8 171 3 0 6 17 7 8 .288 .367 .635 1.002 *98
4 Greg Vaughn 156 50 6.3 1998 32 SDP NL 158 661 573 112 156 28 4 119 79 6 121 5 0 4 7 11 4 .272 .363 .597 .960 *7/DH
5 Brady Anderson 156 50 6.9 1996 32 BAL AL 149 687 579 117 172 37 5 110 76 1 106 22 6 4 11 21 8 .297 .396 .637 1.034 *8/HD
6 Prince Fielder 157 50 3.6 2007 23 MIL NL 158 681 573 109 165 35 2 119 90 21 121 14 0 4 9 2 2 .288 .395 .618 1.013 *3/DH
7 Alex Rodriguez 158 57 8.8 2002 26 TEX AL 162 725 624 125 187 27 2 142 87 12 122 10 0 4 14 9 4 .300 .392 .623 1.015 *6/H
8 Alex Rodriguez 160 52 8.3 2001 25 TEX AL 162 732 632 133 201 34 1 135 75 6 131 16 0 9 17 18 3 .318 .399 .622 1.021 *6/D
9 Sammy Sosa 160 66 6.4 1998 29 CHC NL 159 722 643 134 198 20 0 158 73 14 171 1 0 5 20 18 9 .308 .377 .647 1.024 *9/8
10 Johnny Mize 160 51 7.1 1947 34 NYG NL 154 664 586 137 177 26 2 138 74 42 4 0 6 2 .302 .384 .614 .998 *3
11 Sammy Sosa 161 50 5.7 2000 31 CHC NL 156 705 604 106 193 38 1 138 91 19 168 2 0 8 12 7 4 .320 .406 .634 1.040 *9/8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

lowest WAR
Rk Player WAR/pos HR OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Prince Fielder 3.6 50 157 2007 23 MIL NL 158 681 573 109 165 35 2 119 90 21 121 14 0 4 9 2 2 .288 .395 .618 1.013 *3/DH
2 Sammy Sosa 4.8 63 151 1999 30 CHC NL 162 712 625 114 180 24 2 141 78 8 171 3 0 6 17 7 8 .288 .367 .635 1.002 *98
3 Mark McGwire 5.1 58 170 1997 33 TOT ML 156 657 540 86 148 27 0 123 101 16 159 9 0 7 9 3 0 .274 .393 .646 1.039 *3/H
4 Ryan Howard 5.2 58 167 2006 26 PHI NL 159 704 581 104 182 25 1 149 108 37 181 9 0 6 7 0 0 .313 .425 .659 1.084 *3/H
5 Mark McGwire 5.2 65 176 1999 35 STL NL 153 661 521 118 145 21 1 147 133 21 141 2 0 5 12 0 0 .278 .424 .697 1.120 *3/H
6 David Ortiz 5.7 54 161 2006 30 BOS AL 151 686 558 115 160 29 2 137 119 23 117 4 0 5 12 1 0 .287 .413 .636 1.049 *D3/H
7 Sammy Sosa 5.7 50 161 2000 31 CHC NL 156 705 604 106 193 38 1 138 91 19 168 2 0 8 12 7 4 .320 .406 .634 1.040 *9/8
8 Greg Vaughn 6.3 50 156 1998 32 SDP NL 158 661 573 112 156 28 4 119 79 6 121 5 0 4 7 11 4 .272 .363 .597 .960 *7/DH
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

at least 40 HR in a season: Tony Batista OPS+ and Adam Dunn WAR
lowest OPS+
Rk Player OPS+ HR WAR/pos Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Tony Batista 102 41 2.4 2000 26 TOR AL 154 664 620 96 163 32 2 114 35 1 121 6 0 3 15 5 4 .263 .307 .519 .827 *5
2 Todd Frazier 109 40 3.4 2016 30 CHW AL 158 666 590 89 133 21 0 98 64 1 163 4 1 7 11 15 5 .225 .302 .464 .767 *5/3D
3 Vinny Castilla 112 40 3.2 1996 28 COL NL 160 673 629 97 191 34 0 113 35 7 88 5 0 4 20 7 2 .304 .343 .548 .892 *5/H
4 Chris Carter 114 41 0.9 2016 29 MIL NL 160 644 549 84 122 27 1 94 76 1 206 9 0 10 18 3 1 .222 .321 .499 .821 *3/HD
5 Adam Dunn 114 41 1.4 2012 32 CHW AL 151 649 539 87 110 19 0 96 105 3 222 1 0 4 8 2 1 .204 .333 .468 .800 *D3/7H
6 Adam Dunn 114 40 0.4 2006 26 CIN NL 160 683 561 99 131 24 0 92 112 12 194 6 1 3 8 7 0 .234 .365 .490 .855 *7/3HD
7 Jose Canseco 114 46 1.5 1998 33 TOR AL 151 658 583 98 138 26 0 107 65 5 159 6 0 4 7 29 17 .237 .318 .518 .836 *D79
8 Curtis Granderson 115 43 3.0 2012 31 NYY AL 160 684 596 102 138 18 4 106 75 4 195 5 1 7 5 10 3 .232 .319 .492 .811 *8/HD
9 Vinny Castilla 115 40 3.1 1997 29 COL NL 159 668 612 94 186 25 2 113 44 9 108 8 0 4 17 2 4 .304 .356 .547 .904 *5/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

lowest WAR
Rk Player WAR/pos HR OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Adam Dunn 0.4 40 114 2006 26 CIN NL 160 683 561 99 131 24 0 92 112 12 194 6 1 3 8 7 0 .234 .365 .490 .855 *7/3HD
2 Adam Dunn 0.7 40 131 2008 28 TOT NL 158 651 517 79 122 23 0 100 122 13 164 7 0 5 7 2 1 .236 .386 .513 .898 *793/HD
3 Jeff Burroughs 0.7 41 123 1977 26 ATL NL 154 671 579 91 157 19 1 114 86 2 126 0 0 6 8 4 1 .271 .362 .520 .882 *9/H
4 Chris Carter 0.9 41 114 2016 29 MIL NL 160 644 549 84 122 27 1 94 76 1 206 9 0 10 18 3 1 .222 .321 .499 .821 *3/HD
5 Dante Bichette 1.1 40 130 1995 31 COL NL 139 612 579 102 197 38 2 128 22 5 96 4 0 7 16 13 9 .340 .364 .620 .984 *79/H
6 Adam Dunn 1.4 41 114 2012 32 CHW AL 151 649 539 87 110 19 0 96 105 3 222 1 0 4 8 2 1 .204 .333 .468 .800 *D3/7H
7 Adam Dunn 1.4 40 136 2007 27 CIN NL 152 632 522 101 138 27 2 106 101 8 165 5 0 4 12 9 2 .264 .386 .554 .940 *7/HD
8 Jose Canseco 1.5 46 114 1998 33 TOR AL 151 658 583 98 138 26 0 107 65 5 159 6 0 4 7 29 17 .237 .318 .518 .836 *D79
9 Mark Trumbo 1.6 47 120 2016 30 BAL AL 159 667 613 94 157 27 1 108 51 1 170 3 0 0 14 2 0 .256 .316 .533 .850 *9D/37
10 Ryan Howard 1.8 48 125 2008 28 PHI NL 162 700 610 105 153 26 4 146 81 17 199 3 0 6 11 1 1 .251 .339 .543 .881 *3/HD
11 Dick Stuart 1.9 42 126 1963 30 BOS AL 157 659 612 81 160 25 4 118 44 2 144 1 1 1 24 0 0 .261 .312 .521 .833 *3/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

at least 30 HR in a season: Tony Batista OPS+ and Dante Bichette WAR
lowest OPS+
Rk Player OPS+ HR WAR/pos Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Tony Batista 81 32 -0.2 2004 30 MON NL 157 650 606 76 146 30 2 110 26 4 78 4 4 10 14 14 6 .241 .272 .455 .728 *5/H
2 Vinny Castilla 84 33 0.7 1999 31 COL NL 158 674 615 83 169 24 1 102 53 7 75 1 0 5 15 2 3 .275 .331 .478 .809 *5/H
3 Tony Armas 85 36 -0.9 1983 29 BOS AL 145 613 574 77 125 23 2 107 29 0 131 2 0 8 31 0 1 .218 .254 .453 .707 *8D/H
4 Chris Young 88 32 0.7 2007 23 ARI NL 148 624 569 85 135 29 3 68 43 1 141 6 1 5 5 27 6 .237 .295 .467 .763 *8/H
5 Cory Snyder 89 33 -0.4 1987 24 CLE AL 157 615 577 74 136 24 2 82 31 4 166 1 0 6 3 5 1 .236 .273 .456 .729 *967/H
6 Dave Kingman 90 35 -1.0 1986 37 OAK AL 144 604 561 70 118 19 0 94 33 3 126 3 0 7 16 3 3 .210 .255 .431 .686 *D/3H
7 Jose Valentin 92 30 1.8 2004 34 CHW AL 125 504 450 73 97 20 3 70 43 4 139 3 6 2 5 8 6 .216 .287 .473 .760 *6/HD
8 Andruw Jones 94 34 4.9 2001 24 ATL NL 161 693 625 104 157 25 2 104 56 3 142 3 0 9 10 11 4 .251 .312 .461 .772 *8
9 Jose Cruz 95 31 2.5 2000 26 TOR AL 162 681 603 91 146 32 5 76 71 3 129 2 2 3 11 15 5 .242 .323 .466 .789 *8
10 Joe Carter 95 30 -0.5 1996 36 TOR AL 157 682 625 84 158 35 7 107 44 2 106 7 0 6 12 7 6 .253 .306 .475 .782 *73D
11 Mark Reynolds 97 32 0.4 2010 26 ARI NL 145 596 499 79 99 17 2 85 83 7 211 9 0 5 8 7 4 .198 .320 .433 .753 *5/3H
12 Andres Galarraga 97 31 1.1 1995 34 COL NL 143 604 554 89 155 29 3 106 32 6 146 13 0 5 14 12 2 .280 .331 .511 .842 *3/H
13 Eric Karros 99 31 0.7 2000 32 LAD NL 155 663 584 84 146 29 0 106 63 2 122 4 0 12 18 4 3 .250 .321 .459 .780 *3/HD
14 Sammy Sosa 99 36 2.5 1997 28 CHC NL 162 694 642 90 161 31 4 119 45 9 174 2 0 5 16 22 12 .251 .300 .480 .779 *9/H
15 Dave Kingman 99 37 0.1 1982 33 NYM NL 149 607 535 80 109 9 1 99 59 9 156 4 3 6 11 4 0 .204 .285 .432 .717 *3/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

lowest WAR
Rk Player WAR/pos HR OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Dante Bichette -2.3 34 102 1999 35 COL NL 151 659 593 104 177 38 2 133 54 3 84 2 0 10 15 6 6 .298 .354 .541 .895 *7/HD
2 Mike Jacobs -2.0 32 108 2008 27 FLA NL 141 519 477 67 118 27 2 93 36 10 119 1 0 5 7 1 0 .247 .299 .514 .812 *3H/D
3 Dave Kingman -1.0 35 90 1986 37 OAK AL 144 604 561 70 118 19 0 94 33 3 126 3 0 7 16 3 3 .210 .255 .431 .686 *D/3H
4 Tony Armas -0.9 36 85 1983 29 BOS AL 145 613 574 77 125 23 2 107 29 0 131 2 0 8 31 0 1 .218 .254 .453 .707 *8D/H
5 Leon Wagner -0.6 31 107 1964 30 CLE AL 163 710 641 94 162 19 2 100 56 12 121 6 2 5 13 14 2 .253 .316 .434 .750 *7/H
6 Joe Carter -0.5 30 95 1996 36 TOR AL 157 682 625 84 158 35 7 107 44 2 106 7 0 6 12 7 6 .253 .306 .475 .782 *73D
7 Yasmany Tomas -0.4 31 110 2016 25 ARI NL 140 563 530 72 144 30 1 83 31 4 136 1 0 1 18 2 4 .272 .313 .508 .820 *97/H3
8 Adam Dunn -0.4 38 144 2009 29 WSN NL 159 668 546 81 146 29 0 105 116 16 177 4 0 2 8 0 1 .267 .398 .529 .928 379/DH
9 Cory Snyder -0.4 33 89 1987 24 CLE AL 157 615 577 74 136 24 2 82 31 4 166 1 0 6 3 5 1 .236 .273 .456 .729 *967/H
10 Tony Batista -0.2 32 81 2004 30 MON NL 157 650 606 76 146 30 2 110 26 4 78 4 4 10 14 14 6 .241 .272 .455 .728 *5/H
11 Matt Kemp 0.0 35 112 2016 31 TOT NL 156 672 623 89 167 39 0 108 36 6 156 1 0 12 17 1 0 .268 .304 .499 .803 *97/HD
12 Adam Dunn -0.0 34 105 2013 33 CHW AL 149 607 525 60 115 15 0 86 76 7 189 3 0 3 2 1 1 .219 .320 .442 .762 D3/H7
13 Dave Kingman 0.1 37 99 1982 33 NYM NL 149 607 535 80 109 9 1 99 59 9 156 4 3 6 11 4 0 .204 .285 .432 .717 *3/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2017.

Note Dave Kingman in 1982 at 17th worst for OPS+ and 13th worst for WAR; he has the lowest WAR of any HR champ. That's where this post started. Maybe the lowest OPS+, too.

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