Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Max Scherzer: how great is he? Second only to Kershaw since 2013.

Max Scherzer signed a big free agent contract with the Washington Nationals and started pitching for them in 2015. Scherzer won the National League Cy Young award in 2016 and 2017.

The Nationals are 30-22 in 2018. Let's use 162 innings for each of Scherzer's first three seasons plus 50 for 2018 to set a minimum number of innings for 2015-2018 to evaluate starting pitchers. (162*3)+50=536

RkPlayerERA+IPFromToAgeGGSCGSHOGFWLW-L%SVHRERBBSOERAFIPK%BB%BAbipHRBFIBBHBPBKWPTmBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+SHSF2B3BGDPSBCSPO
1Clayton Kershaw184600.22015201827-3088888604719.7120436156142937232.132.3831.5%4.1%.27353229427821LAD.200.235.311.5465212473534111211
2Max Scherzer155729.12015201830-331091098405826.69005142332191639362.702.8932.7%5.7%.262862864726218WSN.194.247.347.5956022612312282481
3Corey Kluber154719.12015201829-3210410413505231.62705582512311488152.892.9728.9%5.2%.277762822624217CLE.212.260.349.6105916712255035201
4Jake Arrieta151646.02015201829-321031035405826.69004802261931966242.693.2524.2%7.6%.256512578622037CHC-PHI.205.272.324.5956489103115171163
5Zack Greinke142650.12015201831-341011013105221.71205402302171366213.003.3524.1%5.3%.27173257747020LAD-ARI.224.267.369.636701711103134415223
6Justin Verlander142648.12015201832-3599994204327.61404972292141766842.973.4426.4%6.8%.259752590619014DET-HOU.210.268.353.6216871994102818128
7Jacob deGrom138605.22015201827-3096962104026.60605182111941526722.883.0627.5%6.2%.299622441810017NYM.231.281.352.6337519167844531150
8Madison Bumgarner136556.02015201725-2783839303727.57804611931811135862.933.2426.3%5.1%.27664223151815SFG.222.267.367.6347510119293216126
9Kyle Hendricks135572.12015201825-2897963203523.60304852081931405113.033.5322.2%6.1%.27459230582018CHC.229.282.361.6437519689742431415
10Chris Sale133724.22015201826-291071078105231.62705922742551509193.172.9031.6%5.2%.298832911244012CHW-BOS.220.271.361.6327091311310432493
Scherzer is second in ERA+ only to Kershaw and Scherzer has 21.5% more innings than Kershaw.

Scherzer is tied with Arrieta for most wins: 58.

Scherzer is first in K% (percentage of batters faced who struck out)

Scherzer has the third lowest OPS+ against behind Kershaw and Kluber.

Scherzer won the American League Cy Young award with Detroit in 2013. Let's look at the top pitchers 2013-2018 based on 860 innings ((162*5)+50).

RkPlayerERA+IPFromToAgeGGSCGSHOGFWLW-L%SVHRERBBSOERAFIPK%BB%BAbipHRBFIBBHBPBKWPTmBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+SHSF2B3BGDPSBCSPO
1Clayton Kershaw1881035.02013201825-30148148171008431.730073925322917611941.992.2730.2%4.5%.2707339514121240LAD.198.236.300.536522681321369212022
2Max Scherzer1461164.02013201828-331741749509734.740086238636528214282.822.8531.0%6.1%.2731224604836434DET-WSN.203.258.348.606652822208195351263
3Corey Kluber1461102.12013201827-3216416216618145.643091839035823212202.922.8827.9%5.3%.2941054381935221CLE.225.272.357.629682511202118349321
4Jake Arrieta141878.02013201827-321421426507335.67606533132772788512.843.2124.2%7.9%.258653516930046CHC-BAL-PHI.206.275.321.5966515151401665102233
5Zack Greinke1391030.12013201829-341611614208433.71808823533302259762.883.2623.7%5.5%.2811054115816037LAD-ARI.231.275.367.643773216171197724285
6Chris Sale1381113.02013201824-2916316314207549.605090540337023513532.992.9030.3%5.3%.2941194462669123CHW-BOS.219.272.351.623701320163127347155
7Johnny Cueto131915.12013201827-3213913911606537.63707803273062338293.013.4822.3%6.3%.27888371574379CIN-KCR-SFG.230.286.364.6518129121591764201914
8Madison Bumgarner129974.22013201723-2714714713506846.596080134231521810042.913.1625.7%5.6%.27810039071430215SFG.222.271.356.6277729201581365312918
9Stephen Strasburg129920.12013201824-291501502206939.639075635531823510583.112.9828.5%6.3%.2939137111233427WSN.222.278.351.629732614140136744250
10Jon Lester1271078.12013201829-341711716207846.629096543038229610293.193.3823.3%6.7%.2941044409432024BOS-OAK-CHC.239.295.374.6698323182031687122483
Again Scherzer is second only to Kershaw and again Scherzer pitched more innings than Kershaw, 12.5% more innings.

Scherzer had the most wins, 97 to Kershaw's 84 for second.

Scherzer is first in K%.

Kershaw had the lowest OPS+ against and Scherzer is tied with Arrieta for second.

Among the rich teams:
Yankees didn't sign Scherzer and have no pitcher on either list.
Dodgers: Kershaw and Greinke 2013-2015.
Cubs: Arrieta 2013-2017; Lester 2015-2018
Red Sox: Sale 2017-2018; Lester 2013-2014

Nationals: Strasburg 2013-2018

Do the Yankees realize that they made a mistake? And they could have traded for Sale or Verlander.

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