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Monday, October 3, 2011

BA championship: sit on a lead?

Click to see data.

Met Jose Reyes had the highest NL BA in 2011.  Ryan Braun of Milwaukee finished a close second.

On the last day of the regular season, the Mets played a day game.   Milwaukee was scheduled to play a night game.

Before those games Reyes led Braun:
0.33582089552239
0.3345259391771
0.001294956345286 difference


Reyes beat out a bunt single in his only plate appearances.  He left the game in the first inning to preserve his lead over Braun.  His lead had increased to:
0.002531788942079


That didn't sit well with many people but I also wonder if it made sense for Reyes to play at all.


What if Reyes had made out?  These would have been the leads for Reyes had he continued to bet against the house.


0.000669591549155    0 for 1
0.000046551529218    0 for 2
-0.000574176653911    0 for 3
-0.001192605843769    0 for 4

If Reyes went 0 for 1, Braun could have passed him with either 1 for 1 (How ironic would that have been, had Braun pulled himself out?) or 2 for 3.

It would have been like gambling.  The odds always favor the house.  Chances were 1 out of 3 that Reyes would have gotten a hit in his first at bat.  What then?  Cut your losses and have less of a lead than you had before?  How big of a jerk would Reyes look like if he had quit after making out?

So let's say Reyes rolls the dice and bats again.  Another out and his lead has shrunk even more and he would look like a total jackass if he quit now.

So Reyes bats again and ...  You can see how this might have unfolded.

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