Monday, April 15, 2013

Switch Hitter righty/lefty splits.

Entire Careers, From 1901 to 2013, Switch-hitter, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging>=.8 and At least 7500 plate appearances), sorted by greatest On-Base Plus Slugging:

Rk Player OPS PA From To Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG Pos Tm
1 Mickey Mantle .977 9907 1951 1968 19-36 2401 8102 1676 2415 344 72 536 1509 1733 126 1710 13 14 47 113 153 38 .298 .421 .557 *8397/645 NYY
2 Lance Berkman .954 7564 1999 2013 23-37 1817 6271 1124 1857 417 29 361 1208 1171 158 1254 66 1 54 141 86 48 .296 .409 .545 3798/D HOU-TOT-STL-TEX
3 Chipper Jones .930 10614 1993 2012 21-40 2499 8984 1619 2726 549 38 468 1623 1512 177 1409 18 3 97 253 150 46 .303 .401 .529 *57/6D9 ATL
4 Bernie Williams .858 9053 1991 2006 22-37 2076 7869 1366 2336 449 55 287 1257 1069 97 1212 39 12 64 223 147 87 .297 .381 .477 *8D/97 NYY
5 Carlos Beltran .855 8388 1998 2013 21-36 1931 7350 1270 2072 416 74 335 1251 899 92 1343 39 17 83 141 306 47 .282 .360 .495 *89/D7 KCR-NYM-TOT-STL
6 Reggie Smith .855 8051 1966 1982 21-37 1987 7033 1123 2020 363 57 314 1092 890 115 1030 33 8 86 150 137 86 .287 .366 .489 983/5D47 BOS-STL-TOT-LAD-SFG
7 Eddie Murray .836 12817 1977 1997 21-41 3026 11336 1627 3255 560 35 504 1917 1333 222 1516 18 2 128 315 110 43 .287 .359 .476 *3D/57 BAL-LAD-NYM-CLE-TOT
8 Bobby Bonilla .829 8257 1986 2001 23-38 2113 7213 1084 2010 408 61 287 1173 912 128 1204 28 5 97 169 45 57 .279 .358 .472 5973/D81 PIT-NYM-TOT-BAL-FLA-ATL-STL
9 Ken Singleton .824 8559 1970 1984 23-37 2082 7189 985 2029 317 25 246 1065 1263 125 1246 17 29 60 248 21 36 .282 .388 .436 *9D7/8 NYM-MON-BAL
10 Roberto Alomar .814 10400 1988 2004 20-36 2379 9073 1508 2724 504 80 210 1134 1032 62 1140 50 148 97 206 474 114 .300 .371 .443 *4/D6 SDP-TOR-BAL-CLE-NYM-TOT
11 Chili Davis .811 9997 1981 1999 21-39 2436 8673 1240 2380 424 30 350 1372 1194 188 1698 15 20 94 232 142 98 .274 .360 .451 D897/13 SFG-CAL-MIN-KCR-NYY
12 Tim Raines .810 10359 1979 2002 19-42 2502 8872 1571 2605 430 113 170 980 1330 148 966 42 39 76 142 808 146 .294 .385 .425 *78D/49 MON-CHW-NYY-OAK-TOT-FLA
13 Frankie Frisch .801 10099 1919 1937 20-38 2311 9112 1532 2880 466 138 105 1244 728 272 31 229 55 419 74 .316 .369 .432 *45/6 NYG-STL
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/15/2013.

Click this link to view my details of their splits.

Only Berkman throws lefty.  I'll look at the top ten and compare them against themselves to try to get an idea of whether switch hitting actually worked for them.

Excluded:
Mantle: vs RHP as RHB 1 G, 1 PA
Williams:
vs RHP as RHB 14 G, 23 PA, 19 AB, 1.014 OPS
vs LHP as LHB 1 G, 1 PA
Beltran: vs RHP as RHB 5 G, 6 PA, 6 AB
Murray: vs RHP as RHB 1 G, 1 PA
Bonilla:
vs RHP as RHB 13 G, 36 PA, 26 AB, .829 OPS
vs LHP as LHB 2 G, 5 PA, 5 AB
Alomar:
vs RHP as RHB 2 G, 2 PA, 2 AB
vs LHP as LHB 48 G, 90 PA, 81 AB, .667 OPS

Mantle actually had more PA batting righty against righty: two games against Hoyt Wilhelm and two PA against Emilio Hernandez.  So few are incidental.

Other than Mantle very little black ink (led league) among the other nine.

Mantle:
Runs 5
3B 1
HR 4
RBI 1
BB 5
SO 5
BA 1
OBP 3
SLG 4
OPS 6
OPS+ 8
TB 3
MVP 3

Berkman:
2B 2
RBI 1

Jones:
BA 1
OBP 1
OPS 1
OPS+ 1
MVP 1

Williams:
BA 1

Smith:
OBP 1
OPS+ 1
TB 1

Murray:
HR 1 (1981) short season
RBI 1 1981) short season
BB 1
OBP 1
OPS+ 1

Bonilla:
2B 1

Singleton:
OBP 1

Alomar:
Runs 1

Berkman was done backwards since he is the only lefty thrower.  Subtracted batting lefty from batting righty.  Since Mantle's averages were all lower batting lefty his percentages are positive but his HR/AB and SO/AB are both higher batting lefty so his percentages are negative.

BA OBP SLG OPS HR/AB SO/AB
Mantle 14.85% 1.18% 5.04% 3.40% -19.69% -49.45% Mantle
Berkman 18.08% 16.85% 40.96% 29.73% 51.89% 11.38% Berkman
Jones 0.33% -3.58% -8.63% -6.52% 24.51% -2.38% Jones
Williams 5.19% 6.05% 7.55% 6.78% -31.36% 12.40% Williams
Beltran 4.45% 0.00% 8.33% 4.95% -16.53% 2.83% Beltran
Smith 0.35% -3.07% -10.55% -7.26% 39.99% -15.60% Smith
Murray -6.16% -8.53% -10.34% -9.55% 19.31% 15.35% Murray
Bonilla 1.42% -5.81% 1.05% -1.95% -11.17% 39.03% Bonilla
Singleton -11.92% -14.20% -15.86% -15.07% 23.04% -19.22% Singleton
Alomar -17.16% -14.54% -10.95% -12.72% -24.23% -53.89% Alomar
BA OBP SLG OPS HR/AB SO/AB

Mantle is way lower in BA batting lefty but that's about it.  Slugging is skewed because batting righty in Yankee Stadium pushed down his HR/AB batting righty and consequently his BB because they weren't as afraid that he would homer, which apparently drove up his lefty OBP but I'll examine Mantle in much more detail in subsequent posts.  Mantle's OPS difference is only 3.4%.

Williams and Beltran have similar patterns to Mantle without the Yankee Stadium bias, which was greatly reduced by the time Williams played for the Yankees.

Berkman was much worse batting righty.  He might have been better off just batting his natural lefty.  OPS difference is 30%!

Jones, Smith, Murray, Singleton, Alomar all  batted better lefty.  Bonilla is only slightly better lefty.  Here are their OPS differences:
Jones -6.52%
Smith -7.26%
Murray -9.55%
Bonilla -1.95%
Singleton -15.07%
Alomar -12.72%

Click this link to view "census" years data from retrosheet.org: 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010.  retrosheet.org uses different abbreviations from baseball-reference.com.  Here are the averages for those seven seasons.

LH v RP RH v LP RH v RP LH v LP
0.270 0.266 0.253 0.244    BA
0.347 0.336 0.317 0.316    OBP
0.412 0.408 0.387 0.360    SLG
0.758 0.744 0.704 0.677    OPS
31.59% 22.27% 38.81% 7.32%    percent AB

Lefty batter against lefty pitcher loses all the averages, which is probably why it has the lowest percent of AB: 7.3%.  So I guess it's understandable why Berkman decided to switch hit.  Lefty batter against righty pitcher wins all the averages.  Here's the pecking order:
LH v RP lefty batter against righty pitcher
RH v LP righty batter against lefty pitcher
RH v RP righty batter against righty pitcher
LH v LP lefty batter against lefty pitcher

Excluding Berkman we know what these nine natural righty batters did against lefty pitchers, second in the pecking order.  By switch hitting, for over 70% of their PA they moved up to the top spot against rather than drop one spot in the pecking order. For OPS, rather than drop from .744 to .704, they increased to .758.  The switch hitters needed to beat the percentage difference:

(.744 - .704)/.744 = 5.38%  decrease for righty batter against righty pitcher

(.758 - .744)/.744 = 1.88%.  increase for lefty batter against righty pitcher

The benefit appears to be more avoiding the 5.38% drop rather the 1.88% increase.  Could we say that the cumulative difference is the sum of those percentages, about 7.26% applied to the roughly 72% of PA?  Remember, that's based on all MLB batters for seven sample seasons from 1950 through 2010.  Here are the percentage differences from (righty batter against lefty pitcher):

LH v RP RH v RP     Total
1.50% -4.89% BA     6.39%
3.27% -5.65% OPB     8.93%
0.98% -5.15% SLG     6.13%
1.88% -5.38% OPS     7.26%

I'm not going to compute that for them because, frankly, they're not that interesting.  I'll do it in detail for Mickey Mantle.

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