Saturday, September 21, 2013

Beyond Moneyball.

The Michael Lewis book was published ten years ago and the movie starring Brad Pitt as Oakland GM Billy Beane came out in 2011.  A couple of days ago I finally watched part of the movie.  Boy, they sure make Art Howe (Oakland manager in 2002) look like a idiot.

But where are we in 2013?  Don't all teams now value on base average and question sacrifice bunts, especially for non-pitchers?  Maybe the retirement of Mariano Rivera will free some of the managers from the straitjacket of the closer role, although that didn't happen in 2012 for Joe Girardi when he lost Rivera to injury but relied on Rafael Soriano like his life depended on it.

Is any team considering the 12 man rotation of three pitchers throwing three innings each per game?  Or positioning fielders in ways more creative than an over-shift of a batter too stupid to take advantage by bunting for an almost sure single and possible double?

Even within the limited parameters of what has become mainstream Moneyball, are there any Moneyball managers?

Best head coaches:
National Football League (NFL): Bill Belichick, New England Patriots - three NFL championships
National Basketball Association (NBA): Gregg Popovich, San Antonio - four NBA championships

There is no manager in the Major Baseball League (MBL) who is comparable to them even though baseball is a much simpler sport.

One thing that Belichick and Popovich have in common: neither played in his league.  In fact neither played big time college ball.  Belichick played at Wesleyan University in Middletown, CT.  Popovich at the Air Force Acadamy.  Most NFL head coaches never played in the NFL.

There are fewer MBL managers who played in the MBL than ever but most are still former players.  Even Billy Beane, former major leaguer himself, has followed Art Howe with managers who played in the majors:
Ken Macha: 1974, 1977-1981 Pit, Mon, Tor; backup third baseman
Bob Geren: Yankees 1988-1991; San Diego 1993; backup catcher
Bob Melvin: 1985-1994; Det, Bal, KCR, Bal, Bos, NYY, CHW; backup catcher

What the heck?  I've maintained for years that field managers should not be former players, not if you want the changes that now permeate the front offices to be implemented on the field.  Otherwise, you're just recycling Art Howe.

Even some of the current candidates for Moneyball managers have played at least minor league ball:
Joe Madden (Tampa): 1976-1979, minors A ball
John Farrell (Boston): 1987-1990, 1993-1996; CLE, CAL, DET; starting pitcher
Buck Showalter (Baltimore): 1977-1983 minors for the Yankees

Kirk Gibson manages Arizona.  Gibson is a former MVP.  Go find the last MVP to coach in the NFL or NBA.  The last NFL coach to win a championship who was a player of any note was Mike Ditka with the 1985 Bears; Ditka was a Hall of Fame tight end, mostly for the Bears.

Possibly the most recent baseball manager to win a championship who did not play in the majors was Earl Weaver with Baltimore in 1971.  Even he played in the minors ... for 14 years starting in 1948.

Is Ken Williams of the White Sox the only current general manager other than Billy Beane to play major league ball?

Most MBL general managers never played in the MBL or in the minors but they continue to be too timid to hire a non-player as field manager.  I guess that they think such a person, maybe someone like themselves, will not be able to deal directly with the players.  Bill Belichick seems like just that type of person and he gets his football players to respect and listen to him.

Baseball is still lagging behind.

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