Choke

I thought I saw Miguel Cabrera choke.  In game five of the Detroit - Boston semi final series Cabrera hit into a big double play late in the game but he seemed to choke.  He chased an outside pitch and got himself out.  He had done that in an earlier game, struck out chasing, getting himself out.  Nobody blames a batter when the pitcher gets him out but we tend to hold the batter responsible when the batter gets himself out.  Cabrera is a great hitter and probably doesn't choke often but he seemed to have choked at least some of the time this week.

Prince Fielder surprised some people when he pretty much said that he needs the pitcher to make a mistake for him to get a hit.  What, you think batters can hit pitches up and in or low and away?  It's that fat mistake pitch, the one that looks like a batting practice cookie that gets belted.

Keeping Score: Clutch Hitting Explained (It’s Not What You Think)
By BENJAMIN HOFFMAN
October 14, 2013  The New York Times

The Yankees have a pair of players at the opposite ends of the clutch spectrum in terms of how they are viewed...

They call Jeter Captain Clutch, and he certainly has delivered in a number of memorable situations with the game on the line to back up such a nickname. But over all, he is not a drastically different player in close or postseason games, either. In fact, a consistent approach to hitting, regardless of the situation, is often cited by coaches, teammates and opponents as a key to Jeter’s success.

Rodriguez, meanwhile, has dragged around his reputation as a player who cannot handle pressure in important situations...  despite Rodriguez’s on-base and slugging percentages being nearly identical to Jeter’s.
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In addition to the usual drivel, notice what the writer did.  He switched from comparing the batters to their regular season numbers to comparing Alex Rodriguez to Derek Jeter in the tournament.  Rodriguez in the tournament should be compared Rodriguez in the regular season.  But that would not support the writer's point.  Rodriguez is a better hitter than Jeter with a higher on base average and a much higher slugging average in the regular season.  Rodriguez should hit better than Jeter in the tournament.

He presents the usual homogenized numbers such as close and late, presumably in the regular season.  Such situations may be in early April or late September with extreme pressure to win, much more pressure than in April even though the games count the same.  Also, tournament numbers could be in non-clutch situations, such as a blowout.

David Ortiz is also mentioned.  As a Yankee fan I marvel at how often he seems to kill the Yankees when it means the most.  No, I haven't counted.

Among great hitters Rodriguez looks the worst.  Rodriguez gets himself out more than any great hitter I've seen.  When he does it in the regular season it's really annoying.  When he does it the tournament it's not acceptable, especially when accompanied by his "I'm too cool to let this bother me" attitude as he strolls back to the dugout after failing.  At least Cabrera looked embarrassed about his choke DP.

People who are in denial about clutch and choke depend exclusively on the numbers, not what we can actually see on the field.  This is where the players know stuff the rest of us do not.  You'd be hard pressed to find Yankee teammates who a few years ago would not have preferred having Jeter at bat in a clutch tournament situation over Rodriguez.  The Yankees know that Jeter is much more likely to provide his best effort and force the pitcher to do his best to retire Jeter.  They also know what I have described, that Rodriguez will do the opposite, that Rodriguez cannot be trusted in such situations.  Rodriguez is likely to let the pitcher off the hook.

Ups and downs are attributed by some to ups and downs, without considering that a reason for fluctuations may be choking all along.  All players choke.  All players are clutch.  The difference is how much and when.

I already did this in a previous post but try it on your own.  Compare a batter's regular season numbers with his numbers in the tournament and compute a percent difference.  Then compare those percent differences among teammates who generally faced the same pitching.  Batters will succeed or fail mostly on how good the opposing pitching is.  There's only so much batters can do, which is why they never get close to even, such as a .500 batting average.  The pitcher always has a big advantage.  Even the best batters fail most of the time so the successes are few and difficult to measure.

We all have good days and bad.  We all choke, no matter what we do.  To deny or ignore that is silly.  In baseball, listen to the players.  They don't know the numbers but they know each other in a way that the rest of us cannot.  When it comes to choking, players know and they know themselves the best.  A player knows when he choked.  He may not want to admit it, not even to himself, but he knows.  Way down deep, he knows.