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Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Sean Casey misinforms again but he's not alone.

Sean Casey today on MBL Clubhouse Confidential with no challenge from host Brian Kenny assured us that Prince Fielder lost home runs playing in Detroit for two years.  I looked it up.

2012: 18 home, 12 road
2013: 13 home, 12 road

We hear this junk all the time because people don't bother to check.  For instance that both Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury will hit a lot of home runs because they will be playing their home games in Yankee Stadium.  Casey also assured us about Ellsbury on the same program.

In McCann's three highest home run seasons he hit 14, 12, 9 on the road.  So let's say that he hits 12 on the road.  Will he hit 50% more at home?  That's a lot.  If he did, his total would be 30 and very unlikely, partly because I think he is unlikely to catch 120 games in any of his five seasons with the Yankees.

Ellsbury has had only one season in which he homered in double figures: 32 in 660 at bats in 2011.  15 home, 17 road with only two more at bats at home.  How likely is it Ellsbury will hit a lot of homers anywhere?

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