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Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Has Mike Trout topped out? Batters no longer improve according to Fangraphs.

Mike Trout may not improve and any team that signs him after his current contract expires in 2020 will get diminishing returns.  That's the conclusion if research in Frangraphs is correct.

Are Aging Curves Changing?
by Jeff Zimmerman - December 13, 2013

For years, pitcher performance declined as those players aged, but hitters seemed to have an up and down performance curve. In the past few seasons, hitters no longer improve once they arrive in the majors. Instead, their performance is constant until they begin to decline, which, on average, is at 26 years old. Improved training and development is probably behind the shift. If fans are hoping for a young position player’s performance to peak, they might be sorely disappointed. Chances are the player is likely producing at his career-best already.

Those contracts on Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury are paid with sucker money.  This research indicates the Angels will get their money's worth through 2017 when Trout is 25 and paid $19.5 million.  For his final three years through 2020 and age 28 at $33 million per year, it's more problematic.

This also means that the team that I root for, the Yankees, are more doomed than even I thought.  Argh!

Mike Trout June 11, 2013 by Keith Allison via Wikimedia Commons

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