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Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Kill 20 wins?

Kill the win.  The idea has been bouncing around.  The idea is that wins and therefore losses are meaningless stats.

I wondered about that for 20 wins.  For a starting pitcher that means showing up for work.  It means going at least five innings in at least 20 starts.  That's at least 100 innings, just in those games.  By today's standards that's pretty good.

I ran a query in baseball-reference.com for 20 game winning seasons from 2000 through 2015.  There were 50, including multiples for some pitchers.  Here are some ranges.

ERA+ 109 was the worst with 232 innings.  Pretty good.

Only four of 50 seasons with fewer than 200 innings, the lowest being 188.  Again, pretty good.

Only six in double figures and the lowest ERA+ was 124.

Kershaw had the only season with fewer than 30 starts: 27 games, al starts, in 2014; 21-3, ERA+ 197, innings 198.

Winning percentage:
The top 8 led the league.  13 of 50 seasons greater than or equal to .800.

The worst was .625 (20-12).

Five with at least 265.

This is the one meat and potatoes stat where some pitchers are not impressive.  Seven had fewer than 150 SO.

Obviously some seasons a pitcher does very well and that is not reflected in his wins and losses.  See Felix Hernandez 13-12 in 2010 when he won the Cy Young award.  But basically, 20 game winners since 2000 have had good seasons at the least.

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