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Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Half way: interesting team stats.

All 30 teams have played at least 82 games, one more than half of the regular season schedule. This link has interesting team stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016-standings.shtml

It's initially sorted by winning "percentage" (average). The six division leaders sort at the top. That seems inadvertently fair.

Let's sort on the Pythag expected record based on runs scored, runs allowed, with some extra sauce thrown in. Chicago, Washington and Cleveland are the top three but St. Louis moves from 13 into fourth, suggesting that the Cardinals are better than their W-L record. Texas, Baltimore and the Mets drop to 10, 11, 12 - suggesting that they are not as good as their records. Seattle moves way up from 17 to 8.

The "Luck" column shows the difference in wins between actual and expected. This could also include good managing and some clutch. At plus six: Texas and Philadelphia. The Phillies have been suspected of winning way above their talent level. At four: San Francisco and Kansas City. This is the third year running I've suspected the Royals of not being as good as their record. At plus three: Baltimore and the Yankees. That's probably bad news for both, especially the Yankees

Minus 6: St. Louis. Cards could well improve in the second half. Minus 5: Angels and Cubs. Angels are too far gone with only 33 wins but, yikes, the Cubs could actually improve on their 52-30 record! Minnesota ans Seattle are minus 4. Washington (50-34) is minus 3, so the Mets (45-37) could be in trouble at plus one.

Best home record: Baltimore 31-13. Doubtful Orioles can keep that up. Next: Kansas City (27-11) further confirming the Royals playing over their heads. The next six are division leaders and the Dodgers. St. Louis is only 18-24 at home. Ouch.

Top 8 on road: five division leaders (not Baltimore, 23rd at 16-22) and St. Louis, Arizona and Toronto.

Against teams better than .500: five division leaders plus Mets; Baltimore #13, 24-28. Texas leads at 37-18. Worst: Cincinnati 13-40.

Against teams lower than .500: San Francisco 36-18, Cubs 30-12, St. Louis 27-11. Texas #24, 15-14. Worst: Angels 9-18.

One run games:
Texas 18-7
San Francisco 20-10
Philadelphia 19-9
Mets 18-10
...
St. Louis 7-14
Minnesota 8-15

Extra innings: Philadelphia 5-0, Kansas City 4-0. Atlanta 5-9.

vRHP: top 8: division leaders plus Red Sox and Dodgers.

vLHP: Chicago, San Francisco, Cleveland. Texas 7, Washington 8, Baltimore 11.

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