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Friday, February 17, 2017

Why I'm skeptical about Yankee "prospects" Judge, Frazier, Torres.

Plate Appearances (PA) in minors and (PA and OPS at highest level), Prospect Ratings Pre-2016:

Aaron Judge: 1,513 (AAA 670, OPS .786); MLB 95, OPS .608
Born: April 26, 1992 MLB Debut: August 13, 2016
by Baseball America: #76
by BaseballProspectus.com: #18
by MLB.com: #31

Clint Frazier: 1,845 (AAA 129, OPS .657)
Born: September 6, 1994
by Baseball America: #44
by BaseballProspectus.com: #53
by MLB.com: #27
Gleyber Torres: 1,300 (A+ 570, OPS .757)
Born: December 13, 1996
by Baseball America: #41
by BaseballProspectus.com: #41
by MLB.com: #28

​Surprising PA.​ OPS nothing special. So why such high evaluations? This is why I'm skeptical. Each has plenty of PA.

Let's look at a couple of young players called up in 2016 by other teams.

Andrew Benintendi: 657 (AA 263, OPS .872); MLB: 118, OPS .835
Born: July 6, 1994 MLB Debut: August 2, 2016 with Red Sox

Alex Bregman: 679 (AAA 83, OPS 1.015); MLB 217, OPS .791
Born: March 30, 1994 MLB Debut: July 25, 2016 with Astros
by Baseball America: #42
by BaseballProspectus.com: #39
by MLB.com: #22

It's sort of a joke, isn't it? Torres is the youngest of these five but even he has almost twice the minor league PA of either Benintendi or Bregman and with less success at A+ then they had at AA and AAA respectively.

And Judge and Frazier seem like clowns, with more than twice the minor league PA of Benintendi or Bregman and still neither beats the much less experienced players.

So, what the heck?

Who wouldn't trade Judge or Frazier or Torres for either Benintendi or Bregman?

Some people might trade any two for either Benintendi or Bregman.


Michael Lynch said...

What the heck indeed? Who is claiming that they wouldn't trade the Yankees prospects for Benitendi or Bregman? Why would either of those players be available for more prospects? What does those players ability have to with your skepticism of the three Yankee prospects mentioned? If simply looking at a player's ops in the minor's is a judgement of their potential, you would have said Robinson Cano would be a real "clown" with a 719 ops in his first season AAA.

Kenneth Matinale said...

Thanks for the comment, Michael. Too many people are impressed by the quantity of minor league players received and not the quality. If you have comparable euphoria for Cano when he was a "prospect", please share. Thanks.

Michael Lynch said...

On Cano the point is that his ops was similar and turned into a guy that got a 200 million contracts. One of the advantages of a quantity of prospects versus quality is options. There wasn't a minor league system. There was Cano and Wang close to the majors. That was about it. So if they didn't help when Womack sucked and they needed a starter there was jack and shit.
Simply judging prospects by minor league stats without looking at age to league, or taking a small sample of their minor league stats, like Frazier's when he was called up to AAA,and ignoring the rest, might not be great. I think people are excited because they actually have system where they can make a trade, or bring a player up if someone gets hurt. People are seeing these guys in spring training and maybe dreaming a little too much. If Judge doesn't work you try Frazier. If Torres doesn't, there's Mateo. (Everybody was down on Sanchez 2 years ago too) It doesn't gurantee them success, but it gives you options.

Kenneth Matinale said...

Lot's of options doesn't make them good options. We can go back and forth. We disagree. I'm much more likely to be right because most minor league players fail to become impact major league players. Oh, and more important than age is experience, like Frazier jerking around for 3.5 years and counting. Chances that Frazier will be better than Benintendi or Bregman are slim. With much less pro experience, both are in the major league and Frazier is still trying to produce at AAA. Plus, Frazier is a jerk.

Michael Lynch said...

Why does he have to be better than Benintendi or Bregman to be successful? Do you know Frazier or are you just going by nonsense stories like the Mickey Mantle 7, and what do you care as long as he can play or be used to acquire another talent?
Royals and Cubs have done a pretty good job relying on prospects, and not developing a system gives them no options other than spending a ton of money on free agents who are past their primes. With a cap, you have to produce young players and give them a chance to play.