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Tuesday, June 27, 2017

60 Home Runs in 2017 for rookies Aaron Judge and/or Cody Bellinger?

Aaron Judge and/or Cody Bellinger could lead their respective "leagues" in Home Runs as rookies. Wouldn't that be something? Maybe even hit 60 homers.

They are averaging a homer in fewer than 10 at bats (AB). That's AB, not PA (plate appearances). Walks can be a factor as to whether they get enough AB. Simple math: 600 AB / 10 = 60 HR.

In 2016 28 batters had at least 600 AB, including four with at least 41 HR, including league leaders Mark Trumbo (47 in 613 AB) and Nolan Arenado (41 in 618), who tied with Chris Carter (41 in 548 AB).

On the other hand, George Springer had the most BB of those 28 with only 88. After playing 72 of the Yankees 75 games, Judge leads the AL in HR (26 in 261 AB) and BB (50), and he is likely to have more than 100 BB. Bellinger (24 in 218 AB) has played in only 58 of the Dodgers 78 games. Bellinger was called up from the minors and missed the first 20, so he cannot play in more than 142.

Unfortunately, accomplishments of these two amazing young sluggers are tainted as were those of the players who have already hit 60 homers in a season. All save the Babe.

Early Home Run rates for past sluggers: DiMaggio, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, ... Sunday, June 25, 2017

Sanchez, Judge, Bellinger have better Home Run rates in major league than minor. Saturday, June 24, 2017

Baseballs are juiced. Wednesday, June 14, 2017

60 Home Runs in 154 games: Ruth yes. Maris no. Bonds, McGwire, Sosa? Monday, June 12, 2017

Both the 1927 and 1961 Yankees played a tie game and so the team played 155 and 163 games respectively. Ruth broke his 1921 record of 59 HR when he hit number 60 in Yankee game 154 at the Stadium. Ruth did not homer in the final game, number 155.

In 1961 Maris for some reason was allowed that extra game, too, since the Yankees had already played their tie game way back on April 22, 1961 in Baltimore. Maris reached Yankee game 155 with 58 HR. Maris hit number 59 in that fateful night game Sept. 20, 1961, also in Baltimore. Maris would eventually tie and then pass Ruth in Yankee Stadium in Yankee games 159 and 163...

Bonds and McGwire were almost dead even for the lead. After they hit number 60 (in team game 141), they had 21 games remaining. McGwire hit another 10 and Bonds hit another 13. Amazing no matter what they were using.

So the performance enhancing drug (PED) users out performed Maris.


Roger Maris obviously had 5% more games than Babe Ruth and diluted pitching. Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds were juiced on PED. Judge and Bellinger are hitting juiced baseballs, which sometimes look like golf balls sailing into the distance.

Titleist baseballs for exceptional exit velocity and 1,000 foot Home Runs. Friday, June 23, 2017

But didn't the Babe hit only against white pitchers, before modern integration? Yes, but some perspective:

Babe Ruth never batted against Satchel Paige. Neither did Jackie Robinson. Friday, May 29, 2009

And Maris didn't bat against pitchers from Japan or Korea. Of the five batters who have hit at least 60 Home Runs in a major league season, Babe Ruth comes the closest to having a legitimate situation. Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are not to blame any more than Roger Maris was but an asterisk of sorts might attach to 60 homer performances in 2017.

Commissioner Allan Huber "Bud" Selig presided over the steroid era of McGwire, Sosa and Bonds. Eventually, Selig felt compelled to move against PED after which homers were hit less frequently and attendance decreased. Selig's replacement Rod Manfred, the A-Rod Slayer, has presided over juiced baseballs contributing to an increase in Home Runs. Juiced players. Juiced balls. As long as it's entertaining, right? Argh.

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