Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Rodriguez, Ortiz, Hernandez, Thomas all agree that managers remove starters too soon.

And all for the same reason: the starter is still effective and it's doing the other team a favor.

Following the Yankees 6-4 win over the Astros yesterday at the Stadium, Fox Sports TV had the following recent star hitters react in the studio:
Alex RodriguezBorn: July 27, 1975 (Age: 42 and 83 days) 1994-2016; 3 MVP
David OrtizBorn: November 18, 1975 (Age: 41 and 334 days) 1197-2016
Keith HernandezBorn: October 20, 1953 (Age: 63 and 363 days) 1974-1990; co-MVP
Frank ThomasBorn: May 27, 1968 (Age: 49 and 144 days)1990-2008; 2 MVP; HoF

When A-Rod expressed it, Big Papi enthusiastically emphasized: hey, you're doing us, the hitters, a favor by removing a pitcher we cannot hit. Hernandez and Thomas agreed.

Conventional wisdom analytics indicates that after a certain number of pitches or times (2) through the batting order the pitcher should be removed.

Here is where old farts of all ages screech about how this or that iron man pitcher courageously went it alone and threw an amazing numbers of pitches. They can even invoke the recent memory of Astro Justin Verlander throwing 124 pitches in his complete game victory over the Yankees a few days ago.

PitchingIPHRERBBSOHRERABFPitStrCtctStSStLGBFBLDUnkGScIRISWPAaLIRE24
Justin Verlander, W (3-0)951111302.04321249343252531550850.5281.193.3

They selectively ignore Sandy Koufax who retired at 30 because his arm fell off.

Two of the four hitters providing commentary, Rodriguez and Ortiz, were active in 2016 and they faced last night's starters: Sonny Gray and Lance McCullers. Both pitchers were very effective for five innings: score 0-0.

PitchingIPHRERBBSOHRERABFPitStrCtctStSStLGBFBLDUnkGScIRISWPAaLIRE24
Lance McCullers62112313.00208150298139610650.2910.952.3

PitchingIPHRERBBSOHRERABFPitStrCtctStSStLGBFBLDUnkGScIRISWPAaLIRE24
Sonny Gray51212404.32208446304128420610.1641.051.7

Lance McCullers faced 1 batter in the 7th inning.

Sonny Gray faced 2 batters in the 6th inning.

They threw 81 and 84 pitches respectively.

Gray's two batters: BB, catcher's interference. Relief pitcher David Robertson eventually gave up a three run double.

Yankee Aaron Judge hit a leadoff home run in the 7th to VERY deep center and McCullers was removed leading 4-1.

You can see why the four commentators (Rodriguez, Ortiz, Hernandez, Thomas) were bewildered and why they criticized both managers.

There remains an obvious disconnect between current analytics and the insight of accomplished former hitters. Both seem compelling yet contradictory. Or are they?

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