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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Alex Rodriguez scenarios.

Alex Rodriguez has played two games, one at third base, the other as designated hitter.

PA 8
BA .333
Hits 2, both singles
BB 1
SO 1
HBP 1
Runs 0
RBI 0
OPS .833 (career .945)

1 for 4 in game one.  Note: highest TV rating for a Yankee game in 2013 on the local network (YES).

On base 3 of 4 in game two; only out a rocket directly at the CF with runners on.

So far A-Rod looks about the same as he had 2010 and 2011.  Reduced but still a possible threat.

There are multiple overlapping scenarios.

1. Quick resolution of his appeal to an independent arbitrator.

2. Resolution after this season.

A quick resolution could make A-Rod's effectiveness irrelevant if he is suspended through at least the remainder of the 2013 season.

Let's examine possible rulings:
1. Arbitrator upholds the Major Baseball League (MBL) ruling.
2. Arbitrator reduces the suspension to:
    - 100 games
    - 50 games.
3. Arbitrator throws out the suspension entirely.  Probable reason: TAINTED evidence and testimony because the MBL paid for it.

If A-Rod walks, i.e., has his appeal upheld, then how foolish do the following look:
    - the dirty dozen who copped pleas with 50 game suspensions because neither they nor the union had the nerve to fight
    - Allen Huber "Bud" Selig, MBL commissioner, who overcharged and over penalized Rodriguez
    - mainstream media, including New York tabloids, which crucified a home town player, for incessantly repeating the same tired drivel.

However, if A-Rod walks there is still the matter of how well he can play.  This will be on display.  If suspended, A-Rod  will be spared looking incompetent as a ball player.

If A-Rod's 211 game suspension is upheld, he can only play for an independent team in the U.S. or maybe some team in Mexico or Europe.  According to The New York Times, Asian leagues in Japan, Korea and Taiwan have agreements with the MBL not to sign suspended players.  A-Rod would have to wait out his suspension and decide whether to try to play in 2015 when he will be 39 at the start of the season, turning 40 July 27, 2015.  This scenario would be a baseball death sentence, thus the much criticized but appropriate remark made by A-Rod at his press conference Monday that he was fighting for his life.  Obviously he meant his baseball life but not one media person would extend that reasonable interpretation, preferring instead to continue banging the same drum all day long.

The chances that A-Rod both plays the rest of 2013 and plays well are remote.

Best bet: the arbitrator, no matter how foolish the MBL was in both prosecuting and persecuting Alex Rodriguez, will sense the public mood and seek some reasonable middle ground, probably a 100 game suspension, possibly 50 games, same as the dirty dozen.

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