Sunday, October 6, 2013

Baseball v. Football: do you really want to do this?

What's most odd about The Times article mentioned below is that the writer is not an old fart, at least not by age.  He does exhibit old fartism but then he's having an off year.  In multiple news stories he has introduced editorial comment displaying his personal animus for Alex Rodriguez.  But on to the clash of the sports.

In October, Showcasing a Thriving Sport That’s Not Football
By TYLER KEPNER
Published: October 5, 2013  The New York Times

... in Pittsburgh ... at PNC Park on Tuesday ... The stands rattled and hummed, the fans unleashing two decades of frustration on the Cincinnati Reds ...

The notion that football rules and baseball is passé has persisted for decades, never mind that the fundamental difference in the sports — the schedules — invalidates the premise.

One sport has 16 games and plays once a week. The other has 162 games and plays almost every day...

the best hitters come to bat only once per nine players through the order. Basketball stars, in theory, can shoot every trip down the court...

In every way besides national postseason television ratings, the game is thriving, and the real effect of those low ratings is generally overstated...

Franchise values are exploding. Last year, a group led by Mark Walter, Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten bought the Los Angeles Dodgers for $2.15 billion...

If critics still see baseball as a slow game clinging to a romanticized past, lacking sizzle and relevance for the modern age, they are missing quite a show.
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Last night in Oakland the As scored in the bottom of the ninth to beat Detroit 1-0.

Time: 3:23.
Attendance: 48,292

THREE hours and 21 minutes to score ONE run.  That's not slow.  That's glacial.

Nice crowd, though.  In the National Football League (NFL) the Oakland Raiders are 1-3 in last place in their division.  Today the Raiders host division rival San Diego Chargers, 2-2.  Check the attendance tomorrow and see how it compares to what could be the final baseball home game in Oakland this season.

The Raiders had been badly managed for many years by the late Al Davis.  Here are attendance figures for the four Raider games so far:
- at Indianapolis 65,412  Colts won 21-17
- in Oakland 49,400 Raiders beat Jacksonville 19-9
- at Denver 76,978 Broncos won 37-21
- in Oakland 53,549 Redskins won 24-14

The lowly Raiders outdrew the As tournament game in all four games, including the two in Oakland.  The As were playing in the tournament on a Saturday night.  The NFL season is only 25% complete.

Today is Sunday and here is what will be on the major networks:
CBS: NFL 1:00, 4:15
NBC: NFL  8:30
Fox: NFL 1:00, 4:15

The two Major Baseball League (MBL) quarter finals games of its tournament will be on TBS, a cable channel, at 4:30 and 8:00.

Baseball tournament v. football game 5 of 16.

I've written multiple posts recently about the attendance rank of the MBL tournament teams, which suggest that their fans do not think that either of the two wild card spots are worth much.

The Times writer celebrates the joy of those in Pittsburgh who saw the Pirates eliminate the Cincinnati Reds in the do-or-die wild card game.  But what of the Cincinnati fans, devastated but unseen?  To imagine their demeanor we can remember the faces of fans of the other Ohio team, which lost its single elimination game in Cleveland the next day to Tampa.  Tampa was last in the American Conference in regular season attendance and Cleveland next to last.  In the National Conference Cincinnati was 10 of 15, Pittsburgh 11.

I think having a second wild card team is a good idea but not for the reasons most do.  I like it because it reduces the randomness of the worst team winning the tournament or of even advancing very far.  The best teams should reach round two, the semi-finals, 75% of the time, which is good.  They were best over 162 games.  The worst teams should be out before the semi-finals.  The entire NFL tournament is single elimination but the best teams get a bye in the first round.

I'm guessing that very soon baseball teams that are usually either out of contention or on the bubble will create a fatigue in their fans.  Even if they play in the wild card games, chances are that they will lose 50% of the time.  That boom/bust roller coaster ride of emotional highs and lows in such short proximity will be draining as it was in Cleveland.  Imagine that a few years in a row: winning half of your wild card games and for those games you win usually losing the five game first round.  Long term that's what faces these small market (minor league) cities.  Their regular season attendance is already low.  Tampa is rock bottom.  How will such dismal prospects impact that?  See:

Thursday, October 3, 2013  Small markets: isn't that the minor leagues?

The Times guy actually applauds the fact that the best baseball hitter on a team bats only one of nine times.  What?

Football has plenty of flaws and dead time.  But it's silly to assert that baseball has the upper hand in any way other than its daily presence and the sense that any of us can do it.  Baseball is and has always been loyal.  During the season your favorite team plays a game pretty much every day.  That's good and we should not expect all those games to average the same attendance as a once a week sport.  But football continues to crowd baseball off the big television networks even for baseball tournament games.

I'm guessing that the most recent World Series game played during the day was over 30 years ago and that we won't see another, certainly not on a weekend when on Saturday it would be challenged by college games and on Sunday by NFL games.  There is no way a major television network would bump late October football games even for the World Series.
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Monday, October 7, 2013  Baseball v. Football: MBL tournament v. NFL early season attendance in Oakland.

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