Carlos Beltran: more of a center fielder than Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb or Duke Snider. So what?

Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Fame center fielder who happens to be finishing his career playing right field?  Is too much value given to center fielders?

1901 to 2014, Played 50% of games at CF, (requiring HR>=50 and H>=2000), sorted by Adjusted OPS+

Rk	Player	OPS+	HR	H	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Mickey Mantle	172	536	2415	1951	1968	19-36	2401	9907	8102	1676	344	72	1509	1733	126	1710	13	14	47	113	153	38	.298	.421	.557	.977	*8397H/645	NYY
2	Ty Cobb	168	117	4189	1905	1928	18-41	3034	13084	11434	2246	724	295	1938	1249		681	94	291			897	212	.366	.433	.512	.945	*89/H73145	DET-PHA
3	Tris Speaker	157	117	3514	1907	1928	19-40	2791	11992	10195	1882	792	222	1531	1381		394	103	309			436	157	.345	.428	.500	.928	*8/H3971	BOS-CLE-WSH-PHA
4	Willie Mays	156	660	3283	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12496	10881	2062	523	140	1903	1464	192	1526	44	13	91	251	338	103	.302	.384	.557	.941	*8H/39675	NYG-SFG-TOT-NYM
5	Joe DiMaggio	155	361	2214	1936	1951	21-36	1736	7673	6821	1390	389	131	1537	790		369	46	14		130	30	9	.325	.398	.579	.977	*8/79H3	NYY
6	Duke Snider	140	407	2116	1947	1964	20-37	2143	8237	7161	1259	358	85	1333	971	104	1237	21	52	32	166	99	50	.295	.380	.540	.919	*89H/7	BRO-LAD-NYM-SFG
7	Ken Griffey	136	630	2781	1989	2010	19-40	2671	11304	9801	1662	524	38	1836	1312	246	1779	81	8	102	199	184	69	.284	.370	.538	.907	*89DH/73	SEA-CIN-TOT
8	Earl Averill	133	238	2019	1929	1941	27-39	1669	7221	6353	1224	401	128	1164	774		518	33	55		7	70	58	.318	.395	.534	.928	*8/7H9	CLE-TOT-DET-BSN
9	Ellis Burks	126	352	2107	1987	2004	22-39	2000	8177	7232	1253	402	63	1206	793	33	1340	60	29	62	171	181	84	.291	.363	.510	.874	*89D7H	CHW-COL-TOT-SFG-CLE-BOS
10	Edd Roush	126	68	2376	1913	1931	20-38	1967	8148	7363	1099	339	182	981	484		260	53	256			268	92	.323	.369	.446	.815	*8/7H394	CHW-IND-NEW-TOT-CIN-NYG
11	Bernie Williams	125	287	2336	1991	2006	22-37	2076	9053	7869	1366	449	55	1257	1069	97	1212	39	12	64	223	147	87	.297	.381	.477	.858	*8D/9H7	NYY
12	Kirby Puckett	124	207	2304	1984	1995	24-35	1783	7831	7244	1071	414	57	1085	450	85	965	56	23	58	188	134	76	.318	.360	.477	.837	*89/DH7456	MIN
13	Carlos Beltran	123	362	2245	1998	2014	21-37	2078	9006	7920	1354	452	77	1336	938	95	1438	40	18	90	153	308	48	.283	.359	.497	.856	*89/HD73	KCR-TOT-NYM-STL-NYY
14	Cesar Cedeno	123	199	2087	1970	1986	19-35	2006	8133	7310	1084	436	60	976	664	83	938	56	32	71	167	550	179	.285	.347	.443	.790	*8397H/5	HOU-CIN-TOT-LAD
15	Amos Otis	115	193	2020	1967	1984	20-37	1998	8247	7299	1092	374	66	1007	757	53	1008	33	54	103	158	341	93	.277	.343	.425	.768	*8/H79D5	NYM-KCR-PIT
16	Torii Hunter	111	317	2178	1997	2014	21-38	2100	8576	7821	1163	445	37	1236	605	51	1553	85	6	59	231	189	91	.278	.335	.466	.801	*89/DH7	MIN-LAA-DET
17	Vada Pinson	111	256	2757	1958	1975	19-36	2470	10402	9645	1365	485	127	1169	574	69	1196	54	52	78	164	305	122	.286	.327	.442	.769	*897H/3D	CIN-STL-CLE-CAL-KCR
18	Brett Butler	110	54	2375	1981	1997	24-40	2213	9545	8180	1359	277	131	578	1129	23	907	38	147	51	62	558	257	.290	.377	.376	.753	*87/H9D	ATL-CLE-SFG-LAD-TOT
19	Max Carey	108	70	2665	1910	1929	20-39	2476	10769	9363	1545	419	159	800	1040		695	77	290			738	109	.285	.361	.386	.747	*879/H	PIT-TOT-BRO
20	Kenny Lofton	107	130	2428	1991	2007	24-40	2103	9235	8120	1528	383	116	781	945	43	1016	32	72	65	111	622	160	.299	.372	.423	.794	*8/H7D9	HOU-CLE-ATL-NYY-PHI-LAD-TOT
21	Willie Davis	106	182	2561	1960	1979	20-39	2429	9822	9174	1217	395	138	1053	418	75	977	51	83	96	128	398	131	.279	.311	.412	.723	*8H/97D	LAD-MON-TOT-SDP-CAL
22	Johnny Damon	104	235	2769	1995	2012	21-38	2490	10917	9736	1668	522	109	1139	1003	38	1257	50	57	71	93	408	103	.284	.352	.433	.785	*87D9H/3	KCR-OAK-BOS-NYY-DET-TBR-CLE
23	Steve Finley	104	304	2548	1989	2007	24-42	2583	10460	9397	1443	449	124	1167	844	69	1299	53	91	75	152	320	118	.271	.332	.442	.775	*89H/7D1	BAL-HOU-SDP-ARI-TOT-LAA-SFG-COL
24	Willie McGee	100	79	2254	1982	1999	23-40	2201	8188	7649	1010	350	94	856	448	58	1238	15	30	46	157	352	121	.295	.333	.396	.729	*89H7/3D6	STL-TOT-SFG-BOS
25	Marquis Grissom	92	227	2251	1989	2005	22-38	2165	8959	8275	1187	386	56	967	553	44	1240	31	38	62	171	429	116	.272	.318	.415	.732	*8H/79D	MON-ATL-CLE-MIL-LAD-SFG
Rk	Player	OPS+	HR	H	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/17/2014.

1901 to 2014, Played 75% of games at CF, (requiring HR>=50 and H>=2000), sorted by Adjusted OPS+

Rk	Player	OPS+	HR	H	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Tris Speaker	157	117	3514	1907	1928	19-40	2791	11992	10195	1882	792	222	1531	1381		394	103	309			436	157	.345	.428	.500	.928	*8/H3971	BOS-CLE-WSH-PHA
2	Willie Mays	156	660	3283	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12496	10881	2062	523	140	1903	1464	192	1526	44	13	91	251	338	103	.302	.384	.557	.941	*8H/39675	NYG-SFG-TOT-NYM
3	Joe DiMaggio	155	361	2214	1936	1951	21-36	1736	7673	6821	1390	389	131	1537	790		369	46	14		130	30	9	.325	.398	.579	.977	*8/79H3	NYY
4	Ken Griffey	136	630	2781	1989	2010	19-40	2671	11304	9801	1662	524	38	1836	1312	246	1779	81	8	102	199	184	69	.284	.370	.538	.907	*89DH/73	SEA-CIN-TOT
5	Earl Averill	133	238	2019	1929	1941	27-39	1669	7221	6353	1224	401	128	1164	774		518	33	55		7	70	58	.318	.395	.534	.928	*8/7H9	CLE-TOT-DET-BSN
6	Edd Roush	126	68	2376	1913	1931	20-38	1967	8148	7363	1099	339	182	981	484		260	53	256			268	92	.323	.369	.446	.815	*8/7H394	CHW-IND-NEW-TOT-CIN-NYG
7	Bernie Williams	125	287	2336	1991	2006	22-37	2076	9053	7869	1366	449	55	1257	1069	97	1212	39	12	64	223	147	87	.297	.381	.477	.858	*8D/9H7	NYY
8	Kirby Puckett	124	207	2304	1984	1995	24-35	1783	7831	7244	1071	414	57	1085	450	85	965	56	23	58	188	134	76	.318	.360	.477	.837	*89/DH7456	MIN
9	Carlos Beltran	123	362	2245	1998	2014	21-37	2078	9006	7920	1354	452	77	1336	938	95	1438	40	18	90	153	308	48	.283	.359	.497	.856	*89/HD73	KCR-TOT-NYM-STL-NYY
10	Amos Otis	115	193	2020	1967	1984	20-37	1998	8247	7299	1092	374	66	1007	757	53	1008	33	54	103	158	341	93	.277	.343	.425	.768	*8/H79D5	NYM-KCR-PIT
11	Brett Butler	110	54	2375	1981	1997	24-40	2213	9545	8180	1359	277	131	578	1129	23	907	38	147	51	62	558	257	.290	.377	.376	.753	*87/H9D	ATL-CLE-SFG-LAD-TOT
12	Kenny Lofton	107	130	2428	1991	2007	24-40	2103	9235	8120	1528	383	116	781	945	43	1016	32	72	65	111	622	160	.299	.372	.423	.794	*8/H7D9	HOU-CLE-ATL-NYY-PHI-LAD-TOT
13	Willie Davis	106	182	2561	1960	1979	20-39	2429	9822	9174	1217	395	138	1053	418	75	977	51	83	96	128	398	131	.279	.311	.412	.723	*8H/97D	LAD-MON-TOT-SDP-CAL
14	Steve Finley	104	304	2548	1989	2007	24-42	2583	10460	9397	1443	449	124	1167	844	69	1299	53	91	75	152	320	118	.271	.332	.442	.775	*89H/7D1	BAL-HOU-SDP-ARI-TOT-LAA-SFG-COL
15	Marquis Grissom	92	227	2251	1989	2005	22-38	2165	8959	8275	1187	386	56	967	553	44	1240	31	38	62	171	429	116	.272	.318	.415	.732	*8H/79D	MON-ATL-CLE-MIL-LAD-SFG

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/17/2014.

June 2, 2012 by djprybyl on Flickr via Wikimedia Commons

Brain Kenny led a panel discussion on MLB Network yesterday about whether Carlos Beltran has a shot at the Hall of Fame.  The consensus was yes.  My immediate reaction was that Beltran was benefiting from having his hitting compared to center fielders, that if he were compared to right fielders like Hank Aaron then Beltran would have more difficulty.

While Beltran may have a few years to go, right now he is included among players who played at least 75% of their games in center.  Review the two lists above.  The number of center fielders shrinks from 25 to 15 when the criteria changes from 50% to 75%.

Who are dropped?

Mickey Mantle
Ty Cobb
Duke Snider
Ellis Burks
Cesar Cedeno
Torii Hunter
Vada Pinson
Max Carey
Johnny Damon
Willie McGee
_____________________________________________________________________

Mantle played his final two seasons at first base, 262 games. Of 2,290 fielding games, he played 1,742 in center, 147 in right, 129 in left.

1,742/2,290=.76  That's 76 percent.  I'm not clear on how baseball-reference.com figures its percentages.
_____________________________________________________________________

Wow.  Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Duke Snider.  Mantle and Cobb don't need the extra credit of playing center field to be considered all time great players.  It turns out that Aaron did not play 75% of his games in right.  Among right fielders using the 50% criteria, Snider would have the same ranking OPS+: number six.  Babe Ruth is not included because he split his outfield games between right and left.

Carlos Beltran ranked 13 out of 25 on the first center field list and 9 of 15 on the second list.  For some perspective Bernie Williams ranked 11 and 7.  Jim Edmonds missed the 2,000 hit cut with 1,949; he hit 393 homers and had OPS+ 132.  That would have ranked Edmonds 9 and 6, above both Beltran and Williams.  Among those three I would pick Edmonds number one, Williams three.  Bernie was not nearly as good a fielder and Betran was a great base stealer and outstanding tournament hitter.

How would they fit among corner outfielders, both right and left?  OPS+:

Edmonds 132: rank 22 tied with Tony Gwynn and Ken Singleton
Williams 125: rank 36 tied with Kiki Cuyler
Beltran 123; rank 39 tied with Tim Raines

What corner outfielders are ahead of them?

1901 to 2014, Played 50% of games at LF or RF, (requiring HR>=100 and H>=2000 and onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=133), sorted by Adjusted OPS+

Rk	Player	OPS+	HR	H	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Babe Ruth	206	714	2873	1914	1935	19-40	2504	10622	8399	2174	506	136	2214	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/8H3	BOS-NYY-BSN
2	Ted Williams	190	521	2654	1939	1960	20-41	2292	9788	7706	1798	525	71	1839	2021	86	709	39	5	20	197	24	17	.344	.482	.634	1.116	*79H/1	BOS
3	Barry Bonds	182	762	2935	1986	2007	21-42	2986	12606	9847	2227	601	77	1996	2558	688	1539	106	4	91	165	514	141	.298	.444	.607	1.051	*78H/D9	PIT-SFG
4	Stan Musial	159	475	3630	1941	1963	20-42	3026	12717	10972	1949	725	177	1951	1599	127	696	53	35	53	243	78	31	.331	.417	.559	.976	3798H/1	STL
5	Hank Aaron	155	755	3771	1954	1976	20-42	3298	13941	12364	2174	624	98	2297	1402	293	1383	32	21	121	328	240	73	.305	.374	.555	.928	*9783DH/45	MLN-ATL-MIL
6	Mel Ott	155	511	2876	1926	1947	17-38	2730	11348	9456	1859	488	72	1860	1708		896	64	109		82	89		.304	.414	.533	.947	*95H8/74	NYG
7	Manny Ramirez	154	555	2574	1993	2011	21-39	2302	9774	8244	1544	547	20	1831	1329	216	1813	109	2	90	243	38	33	.312	.411	.585	.996	79D/H	CLE-BOS-TOT-LAD-TBR
8	Frank Robinson	154	586	2943	1956	1976	20-40	2808	11742	10006	1829	528	72	1812	1420	218	1532	198	17	102	270	204	77	.294	.389	.537	.926	97D3H8/5	CIN-BAL-LAD-CAL-TOT-CLE
9	Harry Heilmann	148	183	2660	1914	1932	19-37	2147	8964	7787	1291	542	151	1537	856		550	40	277			113	64	.342	.410	.520	.930	*93/H847	DET-CIN
10	Willie Stargell	147	475	2232	1962	1982	22-42	2360	9027	7927	1194	423	55	1540	937	227	1936	78	9	75	143	17	16	.282	.360	.529	.889	*73H/98	PIT
11	Larry Walker	141	383	2160	1989	2005	22-38	1988	8030	6907	1355	471	62	1311	913	117	1231	138	7	65	153	230	76	.313	.400	.565	.965	*9H/387D45	MON-COL-TOT-STL
12	Vladimir Guerrero	140	449	2590	1996	2011	21-36	2147	9059	8155	1328	477	46	1496	737	250	985	103	0	64	277	181	94	.318	.379	.553	.931	*9D/H87	MON-ANA-LAA-TEX-BAL
13	Gary Sheffield	140	509	2689	1988	2009	19-40	2576	10947	9217	1636	467	27	1676	1475	130	1171	135	9	111	235	253	104	.292	.393	.514	.907	975D/6H3	MIL-SDP-FLA-TOT-LAD-ATL-NYY-DET-NYM
14	Reggie Jackson	139	563	2584	1967	1987	21-41	2820	11418	9864	1551	463	49	1702	1375	164	2597	96	13	68	183	228	115	.262	.356	.490	.846	*9D8H/7	KCA-OAK-BAL-NYY-CAL
15	Bob Johnson	139	288	2051	1933	1945	27-39	1863	8050	6920	1239	396	95	1283	1075		851	24	28		102	96	64	.296	.393	.506	.899	*78/3495H	PHA-WSH-BOS
16	Chuck Klein	137	300	2076	1928	1944	23-39	1753	7170	6486	1168	398	74	1201	601		521	12	69		55	79		.320	.379	.543	.922	*97H/83	CHC-TOT-PHI
17	Al Kaline	134	399	3007	1953	1974	18-39	2834	11596	10116	1622	498	75	1583	1277	131	1020	55	45	104	271	137	65	.297	.376	.480	.855	*98HD3/75	DET
18	Joe Medwick	134	205	2471	1932	1948	20-36	1984	8143	7635	1198	540	113	1383	437		551	26	44		203	42		.324	.362	.505	.867	*7H/938	STL-TOT-NYG-BRO
19	Paul Waner	134	113	3152	1926	1945	23-42	2550	10766	9459	1627	605	191	1309	1091		376	38	174		127	104	0	.333	.404	.473	.878	*9H/378	PIT-TOT-BSN-BRO-NYY
20	Billy Williams	133	426	2711	1959	1976	21-38	2488	10519	9350	1410	434	88	1475	1045	182	1046	43	8	73	200	90	49	.290	.361	.492	.853	*79D/3H8	CHC-OAK
21	Al Simmons	133	307	2927	1924	1944	22-42	2215	9518	8759	1507	539	149	1828	615		737	30	111		23	88	65	.334	.380	.535	.915	*78/H93	PHA-CHW-DET-WSH-TOT-BOS

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/18/2014.

Kaline played 487 of his 2,625 fielding games in center field, plus 135 at first base.  Aaron played 308 of 3,020 in center, 210 at first and was primarily a DH in his final two seasons with the Brewers.  Bonds played 171 of 2,874 in center.  Even Reggie Jackson played 188 of 2,102 in center, although more out of necessity than skill.

Kaline and probably Aaron could have played center.  Kaline was in right because of his powerful arm.  The same was true of Roberto Clemente (OPS+ 130).  Pirate Andy Van Slyke apparently relegated  Bonds to left as early as 1990 when Bonds won his first MVP.  At 25 Bonds had the speed to play center.

Left fielder Rickey Henderson (OPS+ 127) played mostly center in his 596 Yankee games and 446 of 2,826 over all.

What if Kaline, Aaron, Bonds, Clemente, and Henderson had played center for at least half their careers?  How much more value would they seem to have had?

And what if Beltran, Williams and Edmonds had played corner outfield positions instead of center?  Would there be any serious discussion of them as Hall of Fame players, especially Williams who was erratic in center and had a weak arm?  In the corners they'd be mixed in with the big boppers: Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Musial, Aaron.  Stolen bases and flashy fielding would add only so much.