Mickey Mantle has dropped from 3 to 16 in career home runs. PED or time marching on?

MLB Network had people discussing the impending 500th career home run (HR) of Albert Pujols, currently at 497.  John, an older writer, lamented that the career rank in home runs of Mickey Mantle has dropped from 3 to 16.  The implication and context of the discussion was that performance enhancing drugs (PED), including steroids, were a big part of the explanation.

Modern home run hitting started in 1920 when Babe Ruth smashed his season record of 29 by hitting 54.  Mantle retired in 1968, 48 years later.  Through 2013 another 45 years have passed.  So we might reasonably expect that Mantle would naturally drop at least to 6th.  However, in 1961 modern expansion started increasing the number of games per season by 5 percent and the number of teams from 16 to 30.  The increase in teams did not happen all at once but by 1997 there were 30 teams.  I won't bother with specific arithmetic but that obviously means many more players who could pass Mantle.  With more emphasis on home run hitting, maybe that would drop Mantle to number 12.

Let's look at the home run list through 1968.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40	2504	10622	8399	2174	2873	506	136	2214	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/8H3	BOS-NYY-BSN
2	Willie Mays	587	1951	1968	20-37	2446	10386	9130	1763	2812	446	129	1654	1137	165	1147	33	7	76	212	299	93	.308	.384	.578	.962	*8/H96375	NYG-SFG
3	Mickey Mantle	536	1951	1968	19-36	2401	9907	8102	1676	2415	344	72	1509	1733	126	1710	13	14	47	113	153	38	.298	.421	.557	.977	*8397H/645	NYY
4	Jimmie Foxx	534	1925	1945	17-37	2317	9676	8134	1751	2646	458	125	1922	1452		1311	13	71		69	87	73	.325	.428	.609	1.038	*35H2/7916	PHA-BOS-TOT-CHC-PHI
5	Ted Williams	521	1939	1960	20-41	2292	9788	7706	1798	2654	525	71	1839	2021	86	709	39	5	20	197	24	17	.344	.482	.634	1.116	*79H/1	BOS
6	Eddie Mathews	512	1952	1968	20-36	2391	10100	8537	1509	2315	354	72	1453	1444	107	1487	26	36	58	123	68	39	.271	.376	.509	.885	*53/H7	BSN-MLN-ATL-TOT-DET
7	Mel Ott	511	1926	1947	17-38	2730	11348	9456	1859	2876	488	72	1860	1708		896	64	109		82	89		.304	.414	.533	.947	*95H8/74	NYG
8	Hank Aaron	510	1954	1968	20-34	2279	9888	8889	1603	2792	484	88	1627	866	200	991	23	19	91	239	215	59	.314	.373	.560	.933	*987/4H35	MLN-ATL
9	Lou Gehrig	493	1923	1939	20-36	2164	9663	8001	1888	2721	534	163	1995	1508		790	45	106		2	102	100	.340	.447	.632	1.080	*3/H976	NYY
10	Stan Musial	475	1941	1963	20-42	3026	12717	10972	1949	3630	725	177	1951	1599	127	696	53	35	53	243	78	31	.331	.417	.559	.976	3798H/1	STL
11	Ernie Banks	474	1953	1968	22-37	2262	9426	8551	1216	2368	380	86	1480	695	187	1088	62	33	86	208	50	53	.277	.333	.508	.840	63/5H7	CHC
12	Frank Robinson	418	1956	1968	20-32	1916	8159	7003	1317	2117	402	60	1277	929	158	1047	147	13	68	185	182	67	.302	.392	.556	.948	9738/H5	CIN-BAL
13	Duke Snider	407	1947	1964	20-37	2143	8237	7161	1259	2116	358	85	1333	971	104	1237	21	52	32	166	99	50	.295	.380	.540	.919	*89H/7	BRO-LAD-NYM-SFG

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/19/2014.

Alfonso Soriano recently passed Duke Snider, dropping the Duke to number 51, the lowest of any player with at least 400 HR.

Denny McLain

Mantle's final two homers were off Cy Young award winners, Denny McLain 1968 and Jim Lonborg 1967.  For the more anal among us, the McLain homer on Sept. 19, 1968 is generally considered to be tainted, as McLain indicated to Mantle and delivered a meatball intended for The Mick to hit out in what was understood to be his final plate appearance in Detroit.  McLain had his 31st victory locked up by that point in the game.  I remember Howard Cosell on his radio program the next day or so, going off about how outrageous it was and that the home run should be stricken.  The homer did, of course, push Mantle past Jimmie Foxx into third place.  Fortunately, The Mick justified his exalted ranking by hitting one more off Lonborg.  Back then I thought that Howard was full of beans on this but now I see his point.

When Mantle retired there were 8 players with at least 500 home runs.  Now there are 25.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Barry Bonds	762	1986	2007	21-42	2986	12606	9847	2227	2935	601	77	1996	2558	688	1539	106	4	91	165	514	141	.298	.444	.607	1.051	*78H/D9	PIT-SFG
2	Hank Aaron	755	1954	1976	20-42	3298	13941	12364	2174	3771	624	98	2297	1402	293	1383	32	21	121	328	240	73	.305	.374	.555	.928	*9783DH/45	MLN-ATL-MIL
3	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40	2504	10622	8399	2174	2873	506	136	2214	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/8H3	BOS-NYY-BSN
4	Willie Mays	660	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12496	10881	2062	3283	523	140	1903	1464	192	1526	44	13	91	251	338	103	.302	.384	.557	.941	*8H/39675	NYG-SFG-TOT-NYM
5	Alex Rodriguez	654	1994	2013	18-37	2568	11344	9818	1919	2939	519	30	1969	1240	92	2075	169	16	101	240	322	76	.299	.384	.558	.942	65D/H	SEA-TEX-NYY
6	Ken Griffey	630	1989	2010	19-40	2671	11304	9801	1662	2781	524	38	1836	1312	246	1779	81	8	102	199	184	69	.284	.370	.538	.907	*89DH/73	SEA-CIN-TOT
7	Jim Thome	612	1991	2012	20-41	2543	10313	8422	1583	2328	451	26	1699	1747	173	2548	69	1	74	165	19	20	.276	.402	.554	.956	3D5H	CLE-PHI-CHW-TOT-MIN
8	Sammy Sosa	609	1989	2007	20-38	2354	9896	8813	1475	2408	379	45	1667	929	154	2306	59	17	78	202	234	107	.273	.344	.534	.878	*98D/H7	TOT-CHW-CHC-BAL-TEX
9	Frank Robinson	586	1956	1976	20-40	2808	11742	10006	1829	2943	528	72	1812	1420	218	1532	198	17	102	270	204	77	.294	.389	.537	.926	97D3H8/5	CIN-BAL-LAD-CAL-TOT-CLE
10	Mark McGwire	583	1986	2001	22-37	1874	7660	6187	1167	1626	252	6	1414	1317	150	1596	75	3	78	147	12	8	.263	.394	.588	.982	*3/HD59	OAK-TOT-STL
11	Harmon Killebrew	573	1954	1975	18-39	2435	9833	8147	1283	2086	290	24	1584	1559	160	1699	48	0	77	243	19	18	.256	.376	.509	.884	357DH/49	WSH-MIN-KCR
12	Rafael Palmeiro	569	1986	2005	21-40	2831	12046	10472	1663	3020	585	38	1835	1353	172	1348	87	15	119	232	97	40	.288	.371	.515	.885	*3D7/H98	CHC-TEX-BAL
13	Reggie Jackson	563	1967	1987	21-41	2820	11418	9864	1551	2584	463	49	1702	1375	164	2597	96	13	68	183	228	115	.262	.356	.490	.846	*9D8H/7	KCA-OAK-BAL-NYY-CAL
14	Manny Ramirez	555	1993	2011	21-39	2302	9774	8244	1544	2574	547	20	1831	1329	216	1813	109	2	90	243	38	33	.312	.411	.585	.996	79D/H	CLE-BOS-LAD-TOT-TBR
15	Mike Schmidt	548	1972	1989	22-39	2404	10062	8352	1506	2234	408	59	1595	1507	201	1883	79	16	108	156	174	92	.267	.380	.527	.908	*53/H64	PHI
16	Mickey Mantle	536	1951	1968	19-36	2401	9907	8102	1676	2415	344	72	1509	1733	126	1710	13	14	47	113	153	38	.298	.421	.557	.977	*8397H/645	NYY
17	Jimmie Foxx	534	1925	1945	17-37	2317	9676	8134	1751	2646	458	125	1922	1452		1311	13	71		69	87	73	.325	.428	.609	1.038	*35H2/7916	PHA-BOS-TOT-CHC-PHI
18	Frank Thomas	521	1990	2008	22-40	2322	10075	8199	1494	2468	495	12	1704	1667	168	1397	87	0	121	226	32	23	.301	.419	.555	.974	*D3/H	CHW-OAK-TOR-TOT
19	Willie McCovey	521	1959	1980	21-42	2588	9692	8197	1229	2211	353	46	1555	1345	260	1550	69	5	70	176	26	22	.270	.374	.515	.889	*3H7/9D	SDP-TOT-SFG
20	Ted Williams	521	1939	1960	20-41	2292	9788	7706	1798	2654	525	71	1839	2021	86	709	39	5	20	197	24	17	.344	.482	.634	1.116	*79H/1	BOS
21	Ernie Banks	512	1953	1971	22-40	2528	10394	9421	1305	2583	407	90	1636	763	198	1236	70	45	96	229	50	53	.274	.330	.500	.830	36/H57	CHC
22	Eddie Mathews	512	1952	1968	20-36	2391	10100	8537	1509	2315	354	72	1453	1444	107	1487	26	36	58	123	68	39	.271	.376	.509	.885	*53/H7	BSN-MLN-ATL-TOT-DET
23	Mel Ott	511	1926	1947	17-38	2730	11348	9456	1859	2876	488	72	1860	1708		896	64	109		82	89		.304	.414	.533	.947	*95H8/74	NYG
24	Gary Sheffield	509	1988	2009	19-40	2576	10947	9217	1636	2689	467	27	1676	1475	130	1171	135	9	111	235	253	104	.292	.393	.514	.907	975D/6H3	MIL-SDP-FLA-TOT-LAD-ATL-NYY-DET-NYM
25	Eddie Murray	504	1977	1997	21-41	3026	12817	11336	1627	3255	560	35	1917	1333	222	1516	18	2	128	315	110	43	.287	.359	.476	.836	*3D/H57	BAL-LAD-NYM-CLE-TOT
Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/19/2014.

Mark McGwire, number 10, is the only one to admit having used PED.  When he retired in 2001 he was number 5 in career home runs.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Hank Aaron	755	1954	1976	20-42	3298	13941	12364	2174	3771	624	98	2297	1402	293	1383	32	21	121	328	240	73	.305	.374	.555	.928	*9783DH/45	MLN-ATL-MIL
2	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40	2504	10622	8399	2174	2873	506	136	2214	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/8H3	BOS-NYY-BSN
3	Willie Mays	660	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12496	10881	2062	3283	523	140	1903	1464	192	1526	44	13	91	251	338	103	.302	.384	.557	.941	*8H/39675	NYG-SFG-TOT-NYM
4	Frank Robinson	586	1956	1976	20-40	2808	11742	10006	1829	2943	528	72	1812	1420	218	1532	198	17	102	270	204	77	.294	.389	.537	.926	97D3H8/5	CIN-BAL-LAD-CAL-TOT-CLE
5	Mark McGwire	583	1986	2001	22-37	1874	7660	6187	1167	1626	252	6	1414	1317	150	1596	75	3	78	147	12	8	.263	.394	.588	.982	*3/HD59	OAK-TOT-STL
6	Harmon Killebrew	573	1954	1975	18-39	2435	9833	8147	1283	2086	290	24	1584	1559	160	1699	48	0	77	243	19	18	.256	.376	.509	.884	357DH/49	WSH-MIN-KCR
7	Barry Bonds	567	1986	2001	21-36	2296	9805	7932	1713	2313	483	71	1542	1724	355	1282	65	4	80	127	484	138	.292	.419	.585	1.003	*78/HD9	PIT-SFG
8	Reggie Jackson	563	1967	1987	21-41	2820	11418	9864	1551	2584	463	49	1702	1375	164	2597	96	13	68	183	228	115	.262	.356	.490	.846	*9D8H/7	KCA-OAK-BAL-NYY-CAL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/19/2014.

The player who made number 5 famous by wearing it on his back after his rookie season was Joe DiMaggio.  When he retired 60 years before McGwire but only 31 years into the home run era, DiMaggio was also number 5 in career homers, same as McGwire.  Today DiMaggio is number 79, one more than Gary Gaetti and one fewer than Carlos Beltran.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40	2504	10622	8399	2174	2873	506	136	2214	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/8H3	BOS-NYY-BSN
2	Jimmie Foxx	534	1925	1945	17-37	2317	9676	8134	1751	2646	458	125	1922	1452		1311	13	71		69	87	73	.325	.428	.609	1.038	*35H2/7916	PHA-BOS-TOT-CHC-PHI
3	Mel Ott	511	1926	1947	17-38	2730	11348	9456	1859	2876	488	72	1860	1708		896	64	109		82	89		.304	.414	.533	.947	*95H8/74	NYG
4	Lou Gehrig	493	1923	1939	20-36	2164	9663	8001	1888	2721	534	163	1995	1508		790	45	106		2	102	100	.340	.447	.632	1.080	*3/H976	NYY
5	Joe DiMaggio	361	1936	1951	21-36	1736	7673	6821	1390	2214	389	131	1537	790		369	46	14		130	30	9	.325	.398	.579	.977	*8/79H3	NYY
6	Johnny Mize	351	1936	1951	23-38	1724	7102	6202	1103	1949	355	83	1281	833		492	48	20		92	28	1	.314	.400	.568	.968	*3/H9	STL-NYG-TOT-NYY

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/19/2014.

Mantle's first season was DiMaggio's last, 1951.  Seventeen years later when Mantle retired DiMaggio had dropped from 5 to 18 on the career home run list.  His descent was much quicker than Mantle's.

Would Rafael Palmeiro have 569 HR and be ahead of Mantle without PED?  Probably not.  Would Barry Bonds be ahead?  Probably.  You can speculate about some of the others: Rodriguez, Sosa, Ramirez.  Apply historical perspective.  Time does march on.