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Monday, December 28, 2015

wikipedia perspective on WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is the current new orthodoxy.  Rather than try, and probably fail, again to read about it in the source websites I decided to look at wikipedia.org.  Read it for yourself but here are some excerpts that may provide surprising innsight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement#Analysis

... for a player is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player was substituted by a replacement level player: a player that may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort...

A high WAR value built up by a player reflects successful performance, a large quantity of playing time, or both combined...

There is no clearly established formula for WAR. Sources that provide the statistic calculate it differently. These include Baseball ProspectusBaseball Reference, and Fangraphs. All of these sources publish the method they use ...

Baseball Prospectus is named WARP ...

Baseball Reference is named rWAR ...

Fangraphs is named fWAR... Compared to rWAR, the calculation of fWAR places greater emphasis on peripheral statistics...

... scaled equally for pitchers and batters ...

Because the independent WAR frameworks are calculated differently, they do not have the same scale[11] and cannot be used interchangeably in an analytical context...

Position players
Baseball Reference

Baseball Reference uses six components to calculate WAR for position players: ...

(1) batting runs,
(2) baserunning runs,
(3) runs added or lost due to grounding into double plays in double play situations,
(4) fielding runs,
(5) positional adjustment runs,
(6) replacement level runs (based on playing time)...

The first five factors are compared to league average ...

The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the players position:
+10.0 for a catcher (12.5 in Fangraphs)
−10 for a first baseman (12.5 in Fangraphs)
+3.0 for a second baseman (2.5 in Fangraphs)
+2.0 for a third baseman (2.5 in Fangraphs)
+7.5 for a shortstop
−7.5 for a left fielder
+2.5 for a center fielder (2 in Fangraphs)
−7.5 for a right fielder
−15.0 for a designated hitter (17.5 in Fangraphs)
...

Fangraphs

The Fangraphs formula for position players involves offense, defense, and base running ... using

weighted Runs Above Average,
Ultimate base running (UBR), respectively.
These values are adjusted using park factors, and a positional adjustment is applied ...
The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the players position:
+12.5 for a catcher (10 in Baseball Reference)
−12.5 for a first baseman (10 in Baseball Reference)
+2.5 for a second (3 in Baseball Reference)
+2.5 third baseman (2 in Baseball Reference)
+7.5 for a shortstop
−7.5 for a left fielder
+2.5 for a center fielder (2.5 in Baseball Reference)
−7.5 for a right fielder
−17.5 for a designated hitter (15 in Baseball Reference) ...

Pitchers

Baseball Reference

Baseball Reference ...
Runs Allowed (both earned and unearned)
Innings Pitched

Fangraphs
Fangraphs uses FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
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WAR may be even more confusing than you think. Sunday, August 16, 2015

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