Whose contract makes more sense: Jason Heyward or Chris Davis?

Jason Heyward

Position: Rightfielder 
Bats: Left, Throws: Left 
Height: 6' 5", Weight: 245 lb.
Born: August 9, 1989 in Ridgewood, NJ

2016	26	Chicago Cubs	$17,500,000	6.000
2017	27	Chicago Cubs	$24,000,000
2018	28	Chicago Cubs	$24,000,000		Has right to opt out of contract following 2018 season.
2019	29	Chicago Cubs	$22,500,000		Has right to opt out of contract following 2019 season if he has 550 PA that year.
2020	30	Chicago Cubs	$23,500,000
2021	31	Chicago Cubs	$23,500,000
2022	32	Chicago Cubs	$24,500,000
2023	33	Chicago Cubs	$24,500,000
		Earliest Free Agent: 2024

Chris Davis

Positions: First Baseman, Third Baseman and Rightfielder 
Bats: Left, Throws: Right 
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 230 lb.
Born: March 17, 1986 in Longview, TX

2016	30	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000	6.061
2017	31	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000
2018	32	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000
2019	33	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000
2020	34	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000
2021	35	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000
2022	36	Baltimore Orioles	$23,000,000
		Earliest Free Agent: 2023

Note that Heyward can opt out after years three and four.

Davis set the Baltimore Orioles record for most home runs in a season with 53 in 2013.  In 2015 Davis hit 47 homers.

Heyward is noted for his fielding and base running.

Fangraphs types love Heyward types and hate Davis types.  Just yesterday on the MLB Network a couple of them were piling on, with Davis being compared to Ryan Howard (Phillies HR record: 58) and Mo Vaughn (1995 AL MVP) by Dave Cameron.  Another Fangrapher said that Davis could hurt his knee and lose his power.  Apparently Heyward cannot hurt his knee or, if he did, he'd still be worth $24,000,000 fielding his position.  I guess losing power for Heyward is not a big deal since he hit only 13 home runs in 2015.  Thirteen.

Davis had a big off year in 2014, which seems to really concern the fangraphers.  Let's look at the last three years.  Since they like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), let's start with that.

From 2013 to 2015, (WAR>=13.4 and At least 1500 plate appearances), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Mike Trout	26.5	2103	2013	2015	21-23	473	1766	328	535	110	24	104	298	285	30	478	29	0	23	25	60	16	.303	.404	.569	.973	*8/7D	LAA
2	Josh Donaldson	23.9	2074	2013	2015	27-29	474	1807	304	513	109	7	94	314	225	7	373	19	3	20	47	19	2	.284	.366	.508	.874	*5/DH63	OAK-TOR
3	Paul Goldschmidt	20.4	1884	2013	2015	25-27	428	1575	281	486	113	6	88	304	281	58	406	7	0	15	51	45	15	.309	.412	.556	.968	*3/HD	ARI
4	Andrew McCutchen	19.3	2007	2013	2015	26-28	460	1697	277	522	112	14	69	263	260	32	349	31	0	19	31	56	18	.308	.405	.512	.917	*8/HD	PIT
5	Adrian Beltre	18.4	1923	2013	2015	34-36	452	1747	250	540	97	5	67	252	148	29	217	13	0	15	50	3	1	.309	.365	.485	.850	*5/D	TEX
6	Miguel Cabrera	17.6	1848	2013	2015	30-32	426	1595	268	529	106	3	87	322	227	44	293	11	0	15	59	5	2	.332	.415	.566	.981	*35/DH	DET
7	Robinson Cano	17.5	2020	2013	2015	30-32	473	1824	240	556	112	3	62	268	169	41	260	15	0	12	63	19	10	.305	.366	.471	.838	*4/DH6	NYY-SEA
8	Ian Kinsler	16.7	2015	2013	2015	31-33	451	1853	279	524	106	13	41	237	123	1	218	16	6	17	38	40	21	.283	.330	.420	.750	*4/DH	TEX-DET
9	Jason Heyward	16.4	1699	2013	2015	23-25	407	1502	220	412	81	8	38	156	171	8	261	16	1	6	22	45	11	.274	.353	.415	.768	*9/8H	ATL-STL
10	Buster Posey	16.3	1823	2013	2015	26-28	445	1624	207	500	90	3	56	256	163	23	191	14	0	22	48	4	2	.308	.371	.470	.842	*2/3HD	SFG
11	Manny Machado	16.1	1777	2013	2015	20-22	400	1627	228	461	95	4	61	189	119	4	292	9	13	9	45	28	15	.283	.334	.459	.793	*5/6	BAL
12	Joey Votto	16.1	1693	2013	2015	29-31	382	1346	228	404	79	5	59	176	325	36	322	12	0	10	31	18	7	.300	.438	.498	.935	*3/H	CIN
13	Starling Marte	15.8	1744	2013	2015	24-26	423	1584	240	453	85	18	44	172	85	5	392	60	9	6	25	101	36	.286	.345	.446	.790	*7/8H	PIT
14	Carlos Gomez	15.6	1711	2013	2015	27-29	410	1545	236	426	90	15	59	202	115	3	388	36	5	10	26	91	28	.276	.338	.468	.806	*8/HD4	MIL-HOU
15	Lorenzo Cain	15.5	1548	2013	2015	27-29	388	1421	210	411	84	13	25	171	94	8	296	20	0	13	35	70	17	.289	.339	.419	.759	*89/HD	KCR
16	Jose Bautista	15.3	1867	2013	2015	32-34	426	1548	291	411	80	3	103	290	283	15	286	17	1	18	50	21	6	.266	.381	.521	.902	*9/D38H5	TOR
17	Bryce Harper	14.7	1546	2013	2015	20-22	371	1297	230	384	72	6	75	189	223	23	329	11	6	9	25	19	10	.296	.401	.534	.936	*79/8HD	WSN
18	Andrelton Simmons	14.3	1817	2013	2015	23-25	450	1681	180	424	68	12	28	149	111	11	163	9	8	8	60	15	13	.252	.301	.357	.658	*6/H	ATL
19	Anthony Rizzo	14.1	2007	2013	2015	23-25	460	1716	254	454	106	6	86	259	227	23	348	51	0	13	29	28	15	.265	.365	.484	.848	*3/H	CHC
20	Kyle Seager	13.9	2035	2013	2015	25-27	480	1828	235	484	96	6	73	239	174	10	338	20	1	12	37	22	14	.265	.333	.444	.777	*5/H6D	SEA
21	Nolan Arenado	13.6	1646	2013	2015	22-24	401	1534	204	431	106	10	70	243	82	15	240	9	3	18	46	6	6	.281	.318	.500	.818	*5/H	COL
22	Alex Gordon	13.6	1765	2013	2015	29-31	416	1550	217	414	79	7	52	203	166	19	359	34	0	15	17	25	11	.267	.348	.428	.776	*7/HD	KCR
23	Chris Davis	13.5	1868	2013	2015	27-29	447	1607	268	405	89	1	126	327	216	27	580	27	1	17	12	8	5	.252	.347	.544	.891	*3/9D5H	BAL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/30/2016.

9. Heyward 16.4 with 1,699 PA
23. Davis 13.5 with 1,868 PA

Number 22 left fielder Alex Gordon was the only other free agent among the top 23; Gordon re-signed with Kansas City.  Another free agent OF:
45. Justin Upton 10.4 with 1,904 PA

oWAR + dWAR NOT equal to WAR but let's check them, too.

oWAR:
15. Davis 13
31. Upton 10.4
52. Heyward 8.4
60. Gordon 7.8

For Davis and Upton all their value is in their offense.  For Davis, that's pretty much all in his bat.  About half of Heyward's value is his offense.

dWAR:
6. Heyward 6.1
16. Gordon 4.1

Davis and Upton were negative.

Only six players hit at least 100 home runs in the last three years.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Chris Davis	126	2013	2015	27-29	447	1868	1607	268	405	89	1	327	216	27	580	27	1	17	12	8	5	.252	.347	.544	.891	*3/9D5H	BAL
2	Nelson Cruz	111	2013	2015	32-34	420	1789	1616	226	454	72	3	277	149	19	413	14	0	10	37	12	8	.281	.345	.535	.880	9D/7	TEX-BAL-SEA
3	Edwin Encarnacion	109	2013	2015	30-32	416	1787	1535	259	418	87	3	313	221	18	242	15	0	16	52	12	3	.272	.366	.546	.912	*3D/5H7	TOR
4	Mike Trout	104	2013	2015	21-23	473	2103	1766	328	535	110	24	298	285	30	478	29	0	23	25	60	16	.303	.404	.569	.973	*8/7D	LAA
5	Jose Bautista	103	2013	2015	32-34	426	1867	1548	291	411	80	3	290	283	15	286	17	1	18	50	21	6	.266	.381	.521	.902	*9/D38H5	TOR
6	David Ortiz	102	2013	2015	37-39	425	1816	1564	216	440	102	2	315	228	65	278	4	0	20	55	4	1	.281	.370	.545	.915	*D/3H	BOS

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/30/2016.

Heyward hit 38 homers total in the last three years.