Read the two posts below and see what you think.
FIP meets common sense. Saturday, January 23, 2016
I just read the following, which was written before my post:
THE END OF FIP AS WE KNOW IT June 12, 2015
by Brian Kenny sportsonearth.com
I looked up Kershaw, Kluber and Lester. They all gave up significantly more homers in the first half of 2015. I had suspected that. Contrary to conventional wisdom home runs are random because outfield distances vary so much. It's amazing how much common sense gets ignored.