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Thursday, June 23, 2016

How frequently do home run hitters hit home runs?

Through 2015 29 players have hit at least 490 Home Runs (HR). Expanding below 500 let's us include Lou Gehrig ... and Fred McGriff. Here are the top five showing their

HR as a percent of Hits:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539
Hank Aaron R 20.0 12364 3771 755 1402 1383
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330
Alex Rodriguez R 22.4 10341 3070 687 1324 2220
Willie Mays R 20.1 10881 3283 660 1464 1526

Now let's sort by HR%:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO
Mark McGwire R 35.9 6187 1626 583 1317 1596
Harmon Killebrew R 27.5 8147 2086 573 1559 1699
Jim Thome L 26.3 8422 2328 612 1747 2548
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539
Sammy Sosa R 25.3 8813 2408 609 929 2306

Bonds is the only one still up there. The other's have these ranks:
Aaron 20
Ruth 6
Rodriguez 10
Mays 19
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AB/HR (lower is better):
Top five in HR:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539 12.9
Hank Aaron R 20.0 12364 3771 755 1402 1383 16.4
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330 11.8
Alex Rodriguez R 22.4 10341 3070 687 1324 2220 15.1
Willie Mays R 20.1 10881 3283 660 1464 1526 16.5

Sorted by AB/HR:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR
Mark McGwire R 35.9 6187 1626 583 1317 1596 10.6
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330 11.8
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539 12.9
Jim Thome L 26.3 8422 2328 612 1747 2548 13.8
Harmon Killebrew R 27.5 8147 2086 573 1559 1699 14.2

Bonds and Ruth are still up there. The other's have these ranks:
Aaron 19
Rodriguez 10
Mays 20
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If a batter homers about every 16 at bats (AB) we tend to divide 16 by 4 per game and figure that he homers about once every four games. But what about bases on balls (BB)? Let's look at HR per plate appearance (PA). Note: Sacrifice Flies (SF) are omitted from PA because the data contains null values for years when that stat was not kept and it messes things up.

PA/HR:
Top five in HR:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR PA/HR
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539 12.9 16.4
Hank Aaron R 20.0 12364 3771 755 1402 1383 16.4 18.3
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330 11.8 14.7
Alex Rodriguez R 22.4 10341 3070 687 1324 2220 15.1 17.2
Willie Mays R 20.1 10881 3283 660 1464 1526 16.5 18.8

Sorted by PA/HR:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR PA/HR
Mark McGwire R 35.9 6187 1626 583 1317 1596 10.6 13.0
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330 11.8 14.7
Sammy Sosa R 25.3 8813 2408 609 929 2306 14.5 16.1
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539 12.9 16.4
Jim Thome L 26.3 8422 2328 612 1747 2548 13.8 16.7

Again, Bonds and Ruth are still up there despite walking more than 2,000 times. The other's have these ranks:
Aaron 13
Rodriguez 7
Mays 18

McGwire homered just a bit more than once every three games for his career, figuring about four PA per game.
_______________________

Finally, what percentage of their outs at least had a chance of being a home run, i.e., percent of non-SO outs? Again for database reasons Outs are simply AB - Hits.

Percent of non SO outs:
Top five in HR:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR PA/HR nonSOouts%
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539 12.9 16.4 77.7
Hank Aaron R 20.0 12364 3771 755 1402 1383 16.4 18.3 83.9
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330 11.8 14.7 75.9
Alex Rodriguez R 22.4 10341 3070 687 1324 2220 15.1 17.2 69.5
Willie Mays R 20.1 10881 3283 660 1464 1526 16.5 18.8 79.9

Sorted by percent of non SO outs:

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR PA/HR nonSOouts%
Mel Ott L 17.8 9456 2876 511 1708 896 18.5 22.0 86.4
Ted Williams L 19.6 7706 2654 521 2021 709 14.8 18.7 86.0
Lou Gehrig L 18.1 8001 2721 493 1508 790 16.2 19.4 85.0
Hank Aaron R 20.0 12364 3771 755 1402 1383 16.4 18.3 83.9
Albert Pujols R 21.0 8545 2666 560 1165 978 15.3 17.5 83.4

Only Aaron remains. The other top five HR hitter ranks:
Bonds 12
Ruth 15
Rodriguez 23
Mays 10

Since this is a pretty unusual perspective, here are the bottom five;

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR PA/HR nonSOouts%
Manny Ramirez R 21.6 8244 2574 555 1329 1813 14.9 17.4 68.0
Mark McGwire R 35.9 6187 1626 583 1317 1596 10.6 13.0 65.0
Reggie Jackson L 21.8 9864 2584 563 1375 2597 17.5 20.1 64.3
Sammy Sosa R 25.3 8813 2408 609 929 2306 14.5 16.1 64.0
Jim Thome L 26.3 8422 2328 612 1747 2548 13.8 16.7 58.2
_______________________

Here are all 29 career leaders through 2015 with this new data sorted by HR.

First Last Bats HR% AB H HR BB SO AB/HR PA/HR nonSOouts%
Barry Bonds L 26.0 9847 2935 762 2558 1539 12.9 16.4 77.7
Hank Aaron R 20.0 12364 3771 755 1402 1383 16.4 18.3 83.9
Babe Ruth L 24.9 8398 2873 714 2062 1330 11.8 14.7 75.9
Alex Rodriguez R 22.4 10341 3070 687 1324 2220 15.1 17.2 69.5
Willie Mays R 20.1 10881 3283 660 1464 1526 16.5 18.8 79.9
Ken Griffey L 22.7 9801 2781 630 1312 1779 15.6 17.8 74.7
Jim Thome L 26.3 8422 2328 612 1747 2548 13.8 16.7 58.2
Sammy Sosa R 25.3 8813 2408 609 929 2306 14.5 16.1 64.0
Frank Robinson R 19.9 10006 2943 586 1420 1532 17.1 19.8 78.3
Mark McGwire R 35.9 6187 1626 583 1317 1596 10.6 13.0 65.0
Harmon Killebrew R 27.5 8147 2086 573 1559 1699 14.2 17.0 72.0
Rafael Palmeiro L 18.8 10472 3020 569 1353 1348 18.4 20.9 81.9
Reggie Jackson L 21.8 9864 2584 563 1375 2597 17.5 20.1 64.3
Albert Pujols R 21.0 8545 2666 560 1165 978 15.3 17.5 83.4
Manny Ramirez R 21.6 8244 2574 555 1329 1813 14.9 17.4 68.0
Mike Schmidt R 24.5 8352 2234 548 1507 1883 15.2 18.1 69.2
Mickey Mantle B 22.2 8102 2415 536 1733 1710 15.1 18.4 69.9
Jimmie Foxx R 20.2 8134 2646 534 1452 1311 15.2 18.0 76.1
Willie McCovey L 23.6 8197 2211 521 1345 1550 15.7 18.4 74.1
Ted Williams L 19.6 7706 2654 521 2021 709 14.8 18.7 86.0
Frank Thomas R 21.1 8199 2468 521 1667 1397 15.7 19.1 75.6
Eddie Mathews L 22.1 8537 2315 512 1444 1487 16.7 19.5 76.1
Ernie Banks R 19.8 9421 2583 512 763 1236 18.4 20.0 81.9
Mel Ott L 17.8 9456 2876 511 1708 896 18.5 22.0 86.4
Gary Sheffield R 18.9 9217 2689 509 1475 1171 18.1 21.3 82.1
Eddie Murray B 15.5 11336 3255 504 1333 1516 22.5 25.2 81.2
David Ortiz L 21.8 8103 2303 503 1239 1664 16.1 18.6 71.3
Lou Gehrig L 18.1 8001 2721 493 1508 790 16.2 19.4 85.0
Fred McGriff L 19.8 8757 2490 493 1305 1882 17.8 20.5 70.0

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