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Saturday, January 13, 2018

Manny Machado: market value may be less than you think.

Manny Machado
Positions: Third Baseman and Shortstop
Bats: Right  •  Throws: Right
Team: Baltimore Orioles (majors)
Born: July 61992 (Age: 25-191 days) in Hialeah, FL us

All Star 2013, 2015, 2016    OPS+ 116

Games started fielding:
3B 715
SS 49

Spanning Multiple Seasons 2013 to 2017, Played at least 75% of games at 2B, 3B or SS, At least 2500 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+:

1Josh Donaldson1441642832702013201727-317422799491789162124914101460331525685.282.377.524.901*5/DH63OAK-TOR
2Jose Altuve1347519134472013201723-277783154455102219918354219343593212309551.324.371.470.840*4/DH6HOU
3Adrian Beltre131116529522013201734-38699267038682115074272353733523024672.307.366.499.865*5/DHTEX
4Robinson Cano1311242033832013201730-347843071426917178546826557445270209911.299.357.481.838*4/DH6NYY-SEA
5Matt Carpenter129911432792013201727-31743276549876519920358438185933710292114.277.379.462.841*543/HD9STL
6Daniel Murphy124844530522013201728-3272028184098562031640518939353180276313.304.348.477.825*4/53HDNYM-WSN
7Kyle Seager1201302733612013201725-2979230033967941651042630126556361206116.264.337.456.792*5/HD6SEA
8Nolan Arenado1181481130222013201722-2672027584208001842350621234449154328411.290.340.534.875*5/HCOL
9Manny Machado1171313731632013201720-2471328974148121686380217165271313237622.280.331.478.809*5/6BAL
10Brian Dozier1161458134302013201726-3076730164957601701840634015676388275527.252.333.465.797*4/HDMIN
11Evan Longoria1161311534252013201727-317983088400819177114362663868027143735.265.325.457.782*5/DHTBR
12Anthony Rendon116783826842013201723-2763423503666571571032827413442284283814.280.358.454.812*54/H6WSN
13Neil Walker115921026312013201727-316452330321623111133042361644440718558.267.343.445.787*4/H35PIT-NYM-MIL
14Ben Zobrist111653230142013201732-3670426073886951571530535919384159246418.267.356.413.769*479/6HD835TBR-OAK-KCR-CHC
15Todd Frazier1101505831802013201727-31769281139667913464162939689464266329.242.321.454.774*5/3DH7CIN-CHW-NYY
16Dustin Pedroia110503629192013201729-33647261236077714943152721032284237920.297.363.415.778*4/HDBOS
17Ian Kinsler107916833072013201731-357433022486832160203722233419366205232.275.331.432.762*4/DHTEX-DET
18Jason Kipnis107678529152013201726-30665257536769717016294271115672217305123.271.342.427.769*4/DH8CLE
19Jed Lowrie10546225052013201729-33599224029059714992512281537813519541.267.335.403.73864/5DHOAK-HOU
20Asdrubal Cabrera104803328372013201727-3170125663376701561230420811515309247211.261.321.425.746*6/45HDCLE-WSN-TBR-NYM
21Martin Prado10445925932013201729-336172385267685130112901651029218124868.287.335.408.742*5/47H9D6ARI-NYY-MIA
22Yunel Escobar10237826462013201730-346502386280674118422121453212014129414.282.345.382.727*56/HD7TBR-WSN-LAA
23Brandon Crawford101662228682013201726-3074425682966581392935723938572233356314.256.321.410.731*6/HSFG
24Xander Bogaerts100514126522013201720-246232418360684131112831908491235165910.283.339.409.748*6/5HBOS
25Chase Utley100593025362013201734-386582259306575128212722022140048225307.255.326.408.734*4/H3D5PHI-LAD

If Machado made 94% of his starts at third base, why include players who mostly played second and/or shortstop?

Some played multiple positions.

Third base is considered more of a hitting position than either second base or shortstop, so Machado should dominate those players if Machado is indeed the exceptional slugger many think will command an enormous free agent contract after the 2018 season.

25 players met the criteria, which included seasons 2013-2017, all those in which Machado played full time.

The 25 include veterans Adrian Beltre (3B) #3 and Chase Utley (2B) #25.

If the query had been run only for 3B, Machado would have only these 3B ahead of him: Donaldson, Beltre, Kyle Seager and Arenado. Carpenter might not have been included since he was 2B in 2013.

Not bad. Machado would have been number 5. However, by including players at 2B and SS, Machado drops to number 9, which doesn't seem so impressive among 30 teams, just one third of the way from the top.

No SS is above Machado but "utility" man Carpenter is number 5 and there are also 2B Altuve (2017 MVP), Cano and Murphy.

This reminds us of how many good hitting infielders there are now.

But there's more. Only one OPS+ number below Machado at 116 are three players, including 2B Dozier and 3B Longoria and Rendon.

Free agent Todd Frazier (#15) is surprisingly close to Machado:
Frazier OPS+ 110, HR 150
Machado OPS+ 117, 131.

Frazier could be signed now for much less money and fewer years than Machado will cost after the 2018 season.

The only 2013-2017 2B, SS, 3B with at least 100 HR:
Donaldson 164
Frazier 150
Arenado 148 (85 home in Colorado, 63 road)
Dozier 145
Machado 131
Longoria 131
Kyle Seager 130
Cano 124
Beltre 116

So what should be the market value for Manny Machado, both now in a trade and then after the 2018 season as a free agent?

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