Mickey Mantle: free agent.

Hello, partner.  In his later years Mickey Mantle enjoyed repeating that story about what Joe DiMaggio would do if he were a free agent playing "today": go up to Yankee owner George Steinbrenner and say "Hello, partner".  It implied that The Mick would have the same approach, that they were so good that each would get top dollar, which is what they actually did get in their times.

Mickey Mantle about 1953
by Bowman Gum via Wikimedia Commons 

I've been wondering how Mantle would have fared if current free agency rules existed during his career: 1951-1968, all with the Yankees.  This post is not intended to be an exhaustive economic analysis, which would require a complex program to try many scenarios per year and compare Mantle's money to that of other players.  It may help to look at the three young current very talented players: Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper.

Mantle would have been under club control from 1951 through 1956, his triple crown season.  If he became a free agent after 1956 his value would have been sky high.  Few, if any, other players would have had his value after their first seasons.

1951: returned to minors for a month; modest
1952: star at 20; using today's criteria in which Bases on Balls (BB) are highly valued, Mantle would have been an MVP candidate; would the Yankees have tried to sign Mantle for multiple years right away?  See Bryce Harper, who just signed for two years with his Washington Nationals for his age 22-23 seasons.
1953: regression, which leading to his first arbitration eligible season might have given the Yankees pause about offering multiple years
1954: rebound; Mantle obviously is a star
1955: led American League in homers and triples; Yanks likely to try to sign Mantle
1956: triple crown, including 52 home runs, MVP; Mantle rules the earth.

The others signed their extensions at these ages:
Trout 23
Stanton 25
Harper 22.

A wild card in all this is that a team knows its own players better than outsiders.  Mantle already had physical problems by 1956 and his immature behavior, including abuse of alcohol, were a major concern to the team.

Suppose that the Yankees decided during Mantle's first six seasons to sign him for multiple years.  Sooner and longer would obviously have been best for the team.  Mantle was the best player in the AL pretty much every season through 1964.

Mike Trout signed for his ages 23-28, meaning that he will become a free agent again in 2021 while still in his prime.  Trout has the highest annual salary of the three.

Giancarlo Stanton signed for his ages 25-38 with an opt out at age 30 in 2021, the same year as Trout.  Stanton's highest annual is for ages 33-35.

Bryce Harper can become a free agent in 2019 at age 26, two years younger than Trout and four years younger than Stanton.

So Harper will hit the market two years before both Trout and Stanton and be two and four years younger than both.  Of course, Harper will be receiving much less than either before then.

The matrix below contains the data mentioned for all four players.  It can also be viewed by clicking this link.  Salaries for their new contracts are in BOLD.  For Stanton, his option years are in RED.  For Trout and Mantle, their MVP years are BOLD.  Salaries for Trout, Stanton and Harper are in millions and for Mantle they are the actual numbers that have become familiar over the years eventually reaching the magic $100,000.  That's one hundred thousand dollars, which Joe DiMaggio made in Mantle's 1951 rookie season.  So from the start of Mantle's career to the end the maximum salary didn't change that much, at least not for him.

Sandy Koufax got $110,000 in 1965 and $125,000 in 1966 his final season.

Willie Mays may have received $160,000 at age 28 in 1959 or more likely he received $80,000.
1966 35 $105,000
1967 36 $105,000
1968 37 $105,000
1969 38 $125,000
1970 39 $125,000
1971 40 $160,000
1972 41 $165,000
1973 42 $165,000

Hank Aaron:
1970 36 $125,000
1971 37 $125,000
1972 38 $200,000
1973 39 $200,000
1974 40 $200,000
1975 41 $240,000 Milwaukee Brewers
1974 42 $240,000 Milwaukee Brewers

	Trout	Trout	Trout		Stanton	Stanton	Stanton		Harper	Harper	Harper		Mantle	Mantle	Mantle
Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age
19	2011	135	???	19	2010			19	2012	596	$0.5	19	1951	386	$7,500	19
20	2012	639	???	20	2011	396	???	20	2013	497	$2.0	20	1952	626	$10,000	20
21	2013	716	$0.5	21	2012	601	$0.4	21	2014	395	$2.2	21	1953	540	$17,500	21
22	2014	705	$1.0	22	2013	501	$0.5	22	2015		$2.5	22	1954	649	$21,000	22
23	2015		$6.1	23	2014	504	$0.5	23	2016		$5.0	23	1955	638	$25,000	23
24	2016		$16.1	24	2015	638	$6.5	24				24	1956	652	$32,000	24
25	2017		$20.1	25	2016		$6.5	25				25	1957	623	$60,000	25
26	2018		$34.1	26	2017		$9.0	26				26	1958	654	$65,000	26
27	2019		$34.1	27	2018		$14.5	27				27	1959	640	$70,000	27
28	2020		$34.1	28	2019		$25.0	28				28	1960	643	$60,000	28
29				29	2020		$26.0	29				29	1961	646	$70,000	29
30				30	2021		$26.0	30				30	1962	502	$90,000	30
31				31	2022		$29.0	31				31	1963	213	$100,000	31
32				32	2023		$29.0	32				32	1964	567	$100,000	32
33				33	2024		$32.0	33				33	1965	435	$100,000	33
34				34	2025		$32.0	34				34	1966	393	$100,000	34
35				35	2026		$32.0	35				35	1967	553	$100,000	35
36				36	2027		$29.0	36				36	1968	547	$100,000	36
37				37	2028		$25.0	37				37				37
38				38	2029		$25.0	38				38				38
Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age	Year	PA	Sal	Age	Year	PA	Sal
		Trout	Trout			Stanton	Stanton			Harper	Harper			Mantle	Mantle

Mantle's salaries are from the main column on his webpage at baseball-reference.com and do not reflect information in the notes.  It's obvious that Mantle did not have the leverage to increase his salary as quickly.  Mantle's biggest percent increase in salary is from his age 24 1956 triple crown season: 46.67%.  This is reflected in the matrix below, also viewable at this link.

	Trout	Stanton	Harper	Mantle
Age	Pct +	Pct +	Pct +	Pct +	Age
19					19
20			300.00%	25.00%	20
21			10.00%	42.86%	21
22	96.08%	25.00%	13.64%	16.67%	22
23	510.00%	0.00%	100.00%	16.00%	23
24	163.93%	1200.00%		21.88%	24
25	24.84%	0.00%		46.67%	25
26	69.65%	38.46%		7.69%	26
27	0.00%	61.11%		7.14%	27
28	0.00%	72.41%		-16.67%	28
29		4.00%		14.29%	29
30		0.00%		22.22%	30
31		11.54%		10.00%	31
32		0.00%		0.00%	32
33		10.34%		0.00%	33
34		0.00%		0.00%	34
35		0.00%		0.00%	35
36		-9.38%		0.00%	36
37		-13.79%			37
38		0.00%			38
Age	Trout	Stanton	Harper	Mantle	Age
	Pct +	Pct +	Pct +	Pct +

Following his disappointing 1959 season Mantle may have been cut from $70,000 to $60,000.  There are no cuts for Trout or Harper and Stanton's salary only decreases at age 36 and even then it's from $32 to $29, then $25 million.

Many people today are blowing off Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki as players who get injured and are bad risks.  Many of those same people would quickly conclude that Mickey Mantle would have made lots of money in free agency.  But would any of them have thought that Mantle was worth the risk at the time?  Mantle was better than the three players mentioned above but he was also a big risk.