Andre Dawson: Hall of Fame without his 1987 MVP season?

Andre Dawson was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2010 with 78% of the vote. 75% is required. Dawson played from 1976 through 1996, so his first year of eligibility was 1997. That would make 2010 year 14 of the 15 years when Dawson was eligible. Obviously, Dawson was not an overwhelming choice. Dawson was good, not great.

PA: 10,769 (43)
OPS+: 119 (388)
HR: 438 (45)
Hits: 2,774 (53)
SB: 314 (154)
CS: 109

This post is not to beat up Andre Dawson. It's to beat up the clowns who persistently, continuously and perpetually promote, and increasingly, get good but not great players elected.

It occurred to me that Dawson's claim to fame, his distinguishing attribute was his uncharacteristic 49 Home Run 1987 MVP season, that without that season, his promoters would have much less to promote.

Ironically, in his first season with the Chicago Cubs Dawson was second in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on his own team to starting pitcher Rick Sutcliffe: 6.6 to 4.0.

Dawson played for the Montreal Expos (now Washington Nationals) 1976-1986. His best OPS + ever was 141 in 1983 when he led the NL in Hits and Total Bases (TB). His only other black ink was in his first of six Cubs seasons, 1987, when he led in HR, RBI, TB. In 1987 OPS+ 130. The best 500 seasons in OPS+ are at least 165. 1987 NL MVP voting:

Voting Results				Batting Stats												Pitching Stats
Rank	Name	Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	Share	WAR	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
1	Andre Dawson	CHC	269.0	11.0	80%	4.0	153	621	90	178	49	137	11	32	.287	.328	.568	.896
2	Ozzie Smith	STL	193.0	9.0	57%	6.4	158	600	104	182	0	75	43	89	.303	.392	.383	.775
3	Jack Clark	STL	186.0	3.0	55%	5.4	131	419	93	120	35	106	1	136	.286	.459	.597	1.055
4	Tim Wallach	MON	165.0	1.0	49%	4.3	153	593	89	177	26	123	9	37	.298	.343	.514	.858	0	0	0.00	1.000	1	0	0	1.0	1	0	0	0
5	Will Clark	SFG	128.0	0.0	38%	4.2	150	529	89	163	35	91	5	49	.308	.371	.580	.951
6	Darryl Strawberry	NYM	95.0	0.0	28%	6.4	154	532	108	151	39	104	36	97	.284	.398	.583	.981
7	Tim Raines	MON	80.0	0.0	24%	6.7	139	530	123	175	18	68	50	90	.330	.429	.526	.955
8	Tony Gwynn	SDP	75.0	0.0	22%	8.5	157	589	119	218	7	54	56	82	.370	.447	.511	.958
9	Eric Davis	CIN	73.0	0.0	22%	7.9	129	474	120	139	37	100	50	84	.293	.399	.593	.991
10	Howard Johnson	NYM	42.0	0.0	13%	4.3	157	554	93	147	36	99	32	83	.265	.364	.504	.868
11	Dale Murphy	ATL	34.0	0.0	10%	7.7	159	566	115	167	44	105	16	115	.295	.417	.580	.997
12	Vince Coleman	STL	20.0	0.0	6%	2.8	151	623	121	180	3	43	109	70	.289	.363	.358	.721
13	Juan Samuel	PHI	19.0	0.0	6%	3.7	160	655	113	178	28	100	35	60	.272	.335	.502	.837
14	Mike Schmidt	PHI	13.0	0.0	4%	6.1	147	522	88	153	35	113	2	83	.293	.388	.548	.936
15	Pedro Guerrero	LAD	12.0	0.0	4%	4.7	152	545	89	184	27	89	9	74	.338	.416	.539	.955
16	Steve Bedrosian	PHI	6.0	0.0	2%	2.3	65	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	5	3	2.83	1.202	65	0	40	89.0	79	11	28	74
17	Milt Thompson	PHI	4.0	0.0	1%	4.0	150	527	86	159	7	43	46	42	.302	.351	.425	.776
18	Bill Doran	HOU	1.0	0.0	0%	4.7	162	625	82	177	16	79	31	82	.283	.365	.406	.772
18	Terry Pendleton	STL	1.0	0.0	0%	2.9	159	583	82	167	12	96	19	70	.286	.360	.412	.772

Of the 18 players to receive points, 14 had WAR equal to or greater than Dawson (4.0) led by:

Tony Gwynn 8.5

Eric Davis 7.9

Dale Murphy 7.7

Murphy (1976-1993) is ironic because this is in addition to his two consecutive MVP seasons (1982, 1983), yet Murphy has not been close to getting elected to the Hall of Fame, despite being generally considered a person of high character, which is at least half of the voting criteria.

First place votes for 1987 NL MVP:
Andre Dawson 11
Ozzie Smith 9
Jack Clark 3
Tim Wallach 1

If Dawson had never played 1987, his career HR drop from 438 to 389. His second most HR and RBI were both in 1983: only 32 HR, 119 RBI. Way below 49 HR and 137 RBI in 1987, both numbers leading the league.

What if you remove one season from other players and then evaluate them. How about removing 1927 from Babe Ruth? That reduces his career HR from 714 to 654. Ruth still holds the season HR record until 1961 but Roger Maris gets to tie it at 59 and in the same number of team games as Ruth had: 155. The Yankees played one tie game in both 1927 and 1961.

Ruth would clearly still be a Hall of Fame player even without that iconic 1927 season. How about Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron? Removing one season from any of them would not diminish their Hall of Fame credentials much.

If you take Dawson's 1987 MVP season and compare it to Willie Mays, how many seasons would Mays have that are better? In 15 full seasons Mays had OPS+ higher than 141, Dawson's best; 130 in MVP 1987.

And Mays played center field almost that entire time: 2,738 games started in center. Dawson played only right field in his six seasons with the Cubs. For his career Dawson started:
1,255 games in right
1,018 games in center.

WAR seasons at least 4.0:
Dawson 7 (tops 7.9)
Mays 17, including 6 at least 10 (tops 11.2)

On what planet would Andre Dawson be considered comparable to Willie Mays, especially if you remove Dawson's 1987 MVP season?