Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Brian Cashman, ALWAYS add (starting) pitching. Wake the heck up!

There's bias in looking at pitchers facing batters for the third time in a game:
1. Relief pitchers virtually never do and rarely face batters a second time in a game.
2. Starting pitchers ALWAYS face the top of the order each time through the lineup. If given the opportunity to work out of such a jam, the starter would be facing the bottom half of the lineup and have a reasonable chance of success based on that alone.

An easy but unused solution: have a relief pitcher pitch the first inning, then bring in the starter, not a parade of relief pitchers (bullpen game), which impacts the next game or more. And the starter can the win pitching fewer than five innings. Getting the win makes him feel good.

Yankee closer Aroldis Chapman just completed the middle year of a five year contract at $17 million per year pitching these regular season innings: 50, 51, 57. For $17 million per year. Set up man Zack Britton gets $13 million per year for 2019 (61 innings), 2020, 2021. That's $30 million per year for Chapman and Britton (118 innings) in 2019. For $30 million.

Oh, and Chapman blew the pennant. In the 2019 ALCS Chapman pitched against Houston in games:
2 Oct. 13
5 Oct. 18
6 Oct. 19 HR: Jose Altuve (5, off Aroldis Chapman, 9th inn, 1 on, 2 outs to Deep LF-CF).

Screenshots from MLB Network, MLB Now about a week ago:



http://retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/MythOfTheCloser.pdf

The Myth of the Closer
By David W. Smith
Presented July 29, 2016
SABR46, Miami, Florida

Every team spends much effort and money to select its closer, the pitcher who enters in the ninth inning to seal the deal and nail down a win. Of course, this now universal use of a closer only became the norm relatively recently and the reason given is simple: teams feel their chance of winning is increased by having this ace specialist. I decided to look at this assumption more closely and came to a probably startling conclusion: it isn’t true that closers increase the chance for a team to win, or at least it is marginally true at best...


Others have addressed the use of closers: Bill James suggests that using an ace in the 7th inning in a crucial situation may be more important; I agree. Mike Emeigh believes that closers are more important in extra innings. Wayne Towers has a presentation tomorrow afternoon on the possible changing meaning of high save totals.


Conclusions
1. The entry of a new pitcher to start the 9th inning has increased dramatically since 1980.
2. The presence of this new pitcher has had almost no effect on a team’s chances to win.
3. Ace closers bring slightly more wins than other 9th inning pitchers (92% vs 88%)
4. Performance of 9th inning pitchers is almost indistinguishable between closers and others.
5. Increased use 9th inning pitchers correlates with overall increase of relief pitchers.
6. Pitchers have had progressively shorter stints for over 100 years.
7. Current pattern of closer usage is not justified by their contributions to team wins.
___________________________

Only Hal Steinbrenner would keep Brian Cashman. Kenneth Matinale 11/7/19

... blaming the hitters, then firing the pitching coach.
__________________________

Yankee decade of discontent (2010-2019): did not reach World Series. Kenneth Matinale 10/31/19

Brian Cashman, fire yourself!
Kenneth Matinale 10/29/19


Brian Cashman called out. Kenneth Matinale August 2, 2019

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