Thursday, September 27, 2012

Joey Votto: can he lead in OBP? And who cares?

Joey Votto has a problem.  For Joey to be credited with having the highest On Base Percentage (OBP) in the National Conference (NC) of the Major Baseball League (MBL) he will need to have Plate Appearances (PA) added to his actual number to determine if  he still has a higher OBP than Andrew McCutchen (.406) or Buster Posey (.405).  Currently Votto leads with .474 but not really.  See the leaders.

That's because Votto has played only 104 games with only 447 PA.  To qualify for leadership in an average category a player needs 3.1 PA per scheduled game: 502.  If he has fewer PA, PA are added to his actual total to determine if he would still have the highest OBP.  Sound familiar?  It should.  McCutchen (.334) or Posey (.331) will be credited with leading the NC in Batting Average (BA) because the legendary Melky Cabrera (.346) has withdrawn from consideration in that statistical category, supposedly because of his embarrassment over his suspension for using testosterone to improve his performance.   Cabrera was one PA short of qualifying so one At Bat (AB) would be added to determine if his BA was still the highest.

Votto's Cincinnati Reds have seven more games to play.  If Votto averages four PA per game he would finish with 475, 27 short.  For those 28 more PA to keep Votto's actual OBP about the same he would have 225/475=.47368421052.

OK, now let's add another 27 PA to get Votto to 502.  225/502=.44820717131.  That's still way higher than either McCutchen or Posey could reach, so Votto is safe.  Even if I simply extrapolate to 502 PA Votto still leads: 217/502=.432.

Why haven't we heard much, if anything, about this?  Because it's OBP and not BA!  BA still captures our imagination, I guess, because of its historical nature.

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