Triple Crown

With Miguel Cabrera so close, so late in the season I thought this research from August 2011 might be of interest.

Here is some of it:

Average age 26.5.  That’s just one reason that St. Louis Cardinal Albert Pujols is unlikely to do it.  In 2011 Pujols is already 31 and injured, so he cannot do it in 2011.  The oldest hitter to do it was Lou Gehrig: 31.  Frank Robinson was 30.  They are the only two 30 or older.  Ty Cobb was the first and also the youngest: 22 in 1909.

The main reason that it has not been done since 1967 is that there are 87.5% more teams and players than before modern expansion started in 1961 (AL) and 1962 (NL).  MLB has gone from 16 teams to 30.  The only two to do it after that were Frank Robinson (1966) and Carl Yastrzemski (1967) when there were still only 20 teams.  MLB expanded to 24 teams in 1969 and that pretty much ended the triple crown.  Plus, Robinson and Yastrzemski had the lowest BA of any triple crown winners.

The other reason that it’s unlikely to be achieved again is that it doesn’t make sense.  Why combine an average with two totals?  The two totals are highly correlated.  The triple crown is basically a HR/RBI leader who happens to also lead in BA.  So what?  Hits would make more sense than BA.  And what about runs scored?  Why not Hits, Runs and RBI?  Or BA, on base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG)?  So what if BA and OBP are highly correlated like HR and RBI?  The triple crown rarely goes to the BA leader who also happens to also lead in HR and RBI.

The triple crown is concentrated: four times in five years (1933-1937) plus Hornsby twice in the 1920s and Williams twice in the 1940s.  That’s pretty much it.  Thirteen years between Cobb and Hornsby.  Mantle is the most isolated: smack in the middle of a 20 season drought, 9 years after Williams and 10 years before Robinson.

Consider some sluggers who led in BA who did not do it: Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Alex Rodriguez and (Albert) Pujols.  This suggests the random nature of the triple crown.