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Sunday, May 22, 2016

Guys who crash and dive don't age well: Heyward and Kiermaier.

Outfielders Jason Heyward and Kevin Kiermaier crashed and dove this weekend, sustaining injuries. Both are considered fielding specialists. Kiermaier was also hitting.

2016 OPS+ and salary:
Heyward 67  $21,666,666
Kiermaier 112  $514,400

Which ages better: power, speed, fielding? Sunday, December 6, 2015

We keep hearing that a big home run, big strike out hitter like Chris Davis does not age well.  Compared to what?  A base stealer who no longer steals bases, like Jacoby Ellsbury?

And what about hot shot fielders?  Jason Heyward supposedly has value because of his fielding, along with decent hitting with moderate power.  Heyward is the big impact non-pitcher among this year's free agents?  Really?

Davis is 6'3", 230.
Heyward is 6'5", 245.

Which one would you want at age 34?
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What free agent hitters do pitchers fear? Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Three: Chris DavisYoenis CespedesJustin Upton.  And let's not kid ourselves, none is Mike Trout or Bryce Harper.

I'm guessing Davis by far above either Cespedes or Upton.  Yeah, I know, it's no longer cool to want home run hitters.  But do you want to spend a bunch of bucks for a player who's value depends on his speed and quickness?  Guys like corner outfielders Jason Heyward or Alex Gordon?  I don't see outfielders like Gary Sheffield or Matt Holiday floating around in their prime.
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Heyward, Davis, Zobrist: how important is age? Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Yesterday on MLB Network a guy was making the case for Jason Heyward being underpaid in his new contract with the Chicago Cubs.  And that the offer that Chris Davis turned down from Baltimore was too much.  It made my teeth hurt...

Supposedly Heyward's value lies in his age.  The Cubs would be paying for his prime years, not his declining years.  Birthdays:

Heyward: Aug. 9, 1989
Davis: March 17, 1986
Zobrist: May 26, 1981

So what the heck?  The Cubs paid Zobrist more money for a guy nine years older than the guy they already had.  Then paid tons of money for Heyward ... what because he's eight years younger than Zobrist? ...

Heyward: PA 3,429, HR 97, TB 1,295, OPS+ 112
Davis: PA 3,512, HR 203, TB 1,582, OPS+ 122

Yeah, I know, Heyward is some sort of acrobat in right field, one who will never tweak a knee...

So go ahead and pay Heyward gobs of money even though he hit only 13 home runs in 2015.  And ignore Chris Davis even though he hit 47 home runs in 2015...

Good luck with Jason, Cubs.  Good luck.
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Chris Davis: still don't like this free agent? Sunday, December 27, 2015

Who says that Davis won't age well?

Jayson Heyward OPS+ last three years: 114, 109, 116.  Good luck Chicago Cubs.

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How much is fielding worth? Heyward? Cespedes? Saturday, January 23, 2016

The eternal question.  Let's consider Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes, who has reportedly agreed to a three year deal with the Mets at $25 million per year with an opt out after one year; more in a future post.

The Chicago Cubs must think, and probably now desperately hope, that fielding is worth a lot.  A lot.  Those adorable overachieving Cubbies will be paying lots of money to:

Jason Heyward
Position: Rightfielder ...

OPS+ 116 career, 114 in 2015

13 homers in 2015.  13 ...

Obviously Kevin Kiermaier is number 7 in total WAR because he's got a big fat 5 in dWAR...

Lest we forget, the Yankee teams that won championships in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 were dominated by good hitters who were suspect fielders up the middle where it supposedly matters most:
catcher: Joe Girardi good fielder/bad hitter (1996), Jorge Posada
shortstop: Derek Jeter
second: Mariano Duncan (1996), Chuck Knoblauch
center: Bernie Williams
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Whose contract makes more sense: Jason Heyward or Chris Davis? Saturday, January 30, 2016

Davis set the Baltimore Orioles record for most home runs in a season with 53 in 2013.  In 2015 Davis hit 47 homers.

Heyward is noted for his fielding and base running.

Fangraphs types love Heyward types and hate Davis types.  Just yesterday on the MLB Network a couple of them were piling on, with Davis being compared to Ryan Howard (Phillies HR record: 58) and Mo Vaughn (1995 AL MVP) by Dave Cameron.  Another Fangrapher said that Davis could hurt his knee and lose his power.  Apparently Heyward cannot hurt his knee or, if he did, he'd still be worth $24,000,000 fielding his position.  I guess losing power for Heyward is not a big deal since he hit only 13 home runs in 2015.  Thirteen...

Heyward hit 38 homers total in the last three years.
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