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Monday, August 28, 2017

Giancarlo Stanton: 50 Home Runs in 129 team games. Can he reach 60 in 154 games? 61 in 162?

Quaint, right? That anyone would still care about 60 Home Runs in the first 154 team games of a season.

Roger Maris was the first to reach 50 Home Runs before the month of September. Maris hit number 50 in Yankee team game 125, including a tie.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels Box Score, August 22, 1961
Attendance: 19,930
Venue: Wrigley Field
Game Duration: 2:29
Night Game, on grass
Angels 4, Yankees 3 (82-42-1)
HR: Roger Maris (50, off Ken McBride, 6th inn, 1 on, 1 out to Deep CF)


Maris did not homer in the next three games, then hit number 51 in team game 129. Maris failed to homer in the final four Yankee games in August, entering September only ten home runs short of breaking the season record of 60 set by Yankee Babe Ruth in 1927 in the old 154 game schedule.
Babe Ruth
Yesterday, August 27, 2017, Miami Marlin Giancarlo Stanton hit home run number 50 off San Diego Padre Clayton Richard in Marlin (66-63) team game number 129. Stanton has had 476 at bats (AB): AB/HR = 9.52. Like Maris, Stanton has missed only one team game so far.

At that rate, Stanton's AB and HR would extrapolate:
-->
GABHRAB/HRAB/G
129476509.523.7
154568.259.7
162597.862.8

Stanton would just about nail the old 1927 record of 60 right on the head and would break the 1961 record of 61 set by Maris. That's with Stanton maintaining the HR rate he has so far this season and not being injured.

60 Home Runs in 154 games: Ruth yes. Maris no. Bonds, McGwire, Sosa? Monday, June 12, 2017

In October 1960 commissioner Ford Frick indicated that an American League (AL) batter who challenged the season home run record of 60 by Babe Ruth, must do so within his team's first 154 games, not the new 162 games in 1961...

Both the 1927 and 1961 Yankees played a tie game and so the team played 155 and 163 games respectively. Ruth broke his 1921 record of 59 HR when he hit number 60 in Yankee game 154 at the Stadium. Ruth did not homer in the final game, number 155.

In 1961 Maris for some reason was allowed that extra game, too ...

RkPlayerHRABYear596061
1Barry Bonds734762001139141144
2Mark McGwire705091998139141143
3Sammy Sosa666431998148149150
4Mark McGwire655211999150155156
5Sammy Sosa645772001153157158
6Sammy Sosa636251999140148149
7Roger Maris615901961155159163
8Babe Ruth605401927152154

Maris was last for all three home runs, taking the most team games to hit them. Bonds and McGwire were almost dead even for the lead. After they hit number 60, they had 21 games remaining. McGwire hit another 10 and Bonds hit another 13. Amazing no matter what they were using.

So the performance enhancing drug (PED) users out performed Maris.
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