Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Ellsbury may be better than Gardner for Yankees 2018 payroll.

Say what? Doesn't EVERYBODY think the opposite? Ellsbury and Gardner are basically the same player except for salary, which is why it was so stupid for Yankee general manager Brian Cashman to sign Ellsbury as a free agent center fielder before the 2014 season when he already had Gardner who was also a natural center fielder.

Jacoby Ellsbury
Born: September 111983 (Age: 34-093d)


201430New York Yankees$21,142,8576.037contracts
201531New York Yankees$21,142,8577.037contracts
201632New York Yankees$21,142,8578.037
201733New York Yankees$21,142,8579.037contracts
201834New York Yankees$21,142,85710.037
201935New York Yankees$21,142,857
202036New York Yankees$21,142,857
202137New York Yankees*$21,000,000$21M Team Option, $5M Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 202

Brett Gardner
Born: August 241983 (Age: 34-111d)


201430New York Yankees$5,600,0005.072contracts
201531New York Yankees$12,500,0006.072contracts
201632New York Yankees$13,500,0007.072
201733New York Yankees$12,500,0008.072contracts
201834New York Yankees$11,500,0009.072
201935New York Yankees*$12,500,000$12.5M Team Option, $2M Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 2019

For the 2018 season the Yankees want to get under the soft team salary cap imposed by the league. Removing the $21 million owed to Ellsbury would help a lot. Except that no team will take Ellsbury in a trade and pay him $21 million for each of the next four seasons. They would, however, trade for Gardner.

The only way for the Yankees to trade Ellsbury is to get very little value in return AND the Yankees pay most of Ellsbury's salary for him to play for another team.

Let's say that the Yankees pay 2/3 of Ellsbury's salary. That would be $14 million. In 2018 they will pay Gardner $11.5 million. That's about half of Ellsbury's annual salary.

So for the crucial 2018 payroll, which would reset the Yankees status for the luxury tax in subsequent years, it would actually make more sense to trade Gardner instead. The Yankees could get a player of some value for Gardner and be in about the same financial position.

Ellsbury is a better fielder and a better base runner than Gardner. In the batter's box they were about the same in 2017:
Ellsbury (409 PA): .264/.348/.402/.750  OPS+ 97
Gardner (682 PA): .264/.350/.428/.778  OPS+ 104

It's at least worth considering.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

What's odd is in each of the last three off seasons there has been chatter about trading Gardner for a pitcher or for Brandon Phillips. This year, I haven't heard any talk of trading him.

Unknown said...

What's odd is in each of the last three off seasons there has been chatter about trading Gardner for a pitcher or for Brandon Phillips. This year, I haven't heard any talk of trading him.