Monday, December 4, 2017

Shohei Ohtani rejects Yankees and Red Sox. Now they can stop drinking the Kool-Aid.

Shohei Ohtani as Designated Hitter (DH)? Is this a joke? And yet the current Kool-Aid inspired conventional wisdom seizing baseball management and fans alike is that this 23 year old player in Japan can come to the USA and do what only Babe Ruth did a century ago: be successful, even great, at both pitching and hitting.

Ohtani has done the Yankees, especially, a favor. Now Yankee general manager for twenty years, Brian Cashman, can set about doing something intelligent: signing the biggest free agent big bopper available this off season: J.D. Martinez. Oh wait. That would put the Yankees over the maximum team payroll, causing the Yankees to continue paying the luxury tax. Oh wait again. Cashman can trade Chapman ($17M), Ellsbury ($21M), Headley ($13M), Castro ($11M). Once Cashman purges those mistakes, the Yanks will have plenty of money. Oh no! No team will take on any of those stupid contracts. Cashman, Baseball America Executive of the Year, what have you done?

Shohei Ohtani Spurns the Yankees, Seeking a Smaller Market
By TYLER KEPNER and DAVID WALDSTEIN DEC. 3, 2017 nytimes.com

Shohei Ohtani ... representatives informed the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox that he would not sign with them...

Brian Cashman, the Yankees General Manager, revealed that Ohtani’s representatives informed him on Sunday that Ohtani, one of the most intriguing players to come out of Japan in over a decade, will not choose the Yankees, a team many saw as the front-runner to sign him...

Cashman said he had learned earlier in the day that Ohtani was not interested in signing with the team, and indicated the reason is that Ohtani prefers a smaller-market team or a team on the West Coast — or both.

“I can’t change that we’re a big market and I can’t change that we’re in the East,” Cashman said.

Similarly, Dave Dombrowski, the general manager of the Boston Red Sox, told the Boston Globe on Sunday that he, too, had been informed that Ohtani would not sign in Boston. The Mets were also informed on Sunday that they were out of the running for Ohtani.
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Shohei Ohtani: Babe Ruth or not even Zelous Wheeler/Kei Igawa? Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Cool or Kool-Aid? I'm not buying either. Pretty much everybody thinks that Shohei Ohtani is sure to succeed in the U.S. Major League. My guess is that as a hitter, Ohtani is a very long shot. As a pitcher, maybe. Ohtani is viewed as Babe Ruth in his youth, both a great starting pitcher and then the great home run hitting slugger we know. If Ohtani plays in the Major League in 2018, that will be exactly 100 years since Ruth led the league in home runs for the first time: tied Tillie Walker at 11...

... Ohtani in 2017 was injured and had only 8 homers in 202 at bats and 25 innings pitched: 29 SO, 19 BB, 3.20 ERA. Ohtani certainly was neither the best hitter nor the best pitcher in Japan in 2017...

There's a reason there's only one Babe Ruth. He's the only pitcher who could hit and he stopped pitching to concentrate on hitting. In 100 years no one has come close. With increased specialization, the idea that a guy from Japan will be another Babe Ruth, even if only in skill sets, seems absurd...

It's not clear to me why Ohtani has so few plate appearances and at bats. Why doesn't he simply be the designated hitter (DH) in the games that he does start as a pitcher? And if he can't in Japan where he pitches only once a week, how will he get 600 PA in the USA? ...

So without doing any heavy lifting and just doing common sense research, I found two failed USA players (Brandon Laird and Zelus Wheeler) thriving in the same league in Japan where Ohtani plays...

Pitchers from Japan have succeeded in the U.S. Major League but not many hitters and Matsui seems to be the only slugger and Matsui was not as big time home run hitter in the U.S. Major League.

If Shohei Ohtani continues to divide his energy and concentration, he may fail at both. Hitting is by far the most difficult skill and Ohtani is not likely to be an impact Major League hitter. Ohtani is more likely to be a Major League pitcher.

If Shohei Ohtani is another Babe Ruth, that would be a great story that I'd like to see as much as anyone, especially if Ohtani plays for the Yankees. However, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid.
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1 comment:

Unknown said...

Could not agree more with you on the two way player Otani. If he as the ability to be a great pitcher or a great hitter you let him be the one is he best at. Babe Ruth stopped pitching.

The contract of Ellsbury and Headley I agree with on. If Ellsbury were a free agent (when discussing how much money the yanks would have to eat) would a team sign Ellsbury to a 3 year 30 million contract if he were a FA today? I don't see Castro's contract in that category and the Yankees gave up no talent to take it on. I guess we'll see in the coming days what Marlins do with him.