The Ohtani Algorithm
by Daniel R. Epstein November 16, 2017
For the uninitiated, the 23-year-old sensation is the best pitcher in Japan who also happens to be the best hitter in Japan. No one alive has ever seen a player like him in the majors...
Ohtani’s two-way excellence isn’t what makes him baseball’s most compelling story this winter. His free-agency decision will have little to do with money at all. He’s under the age of 25 and therefore subject to baseball’s international bonus system. This will drastically reduce his earning potential. If he were a true free agent he would probably sign for more $200 million. Now he’ll sign for a bonus less than $4 million and a major league minimum salary until he reaches arbitration...
One might think all 30 teams would want a player called “The Japanese Babe Ruth,” and perhaps every team will offer the $20 million posting fee ...
According to this algorithm, the Yankees are miles ahead of the competition...
Does this mean Ohtani has to sign with the Yankees? Of course not!
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For the really uninitiated:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=otani-000sho
Spells the player's named differently, even after I brought this to their attention more than a year ago: no "H": Otani. More to the point, Ohtani in 2017 was injured and had only 8 homers in 202 at bats and 25 innings pitched: 29 SO, 19 BB, 3.20 ERA. Ohtani certainly was neither the best hitter nor the best pitcher in Japan in 2017. Let's see how his home run hitting compares to Ruth in transition, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
There's a reason there's only one Babe Ruth. He's the only pitcher who could hit and he stopped pitching to concentrate on hitting. In 100 years no one has come close. With increased specialization, the idea that a guy from Japan will be another Babe Ruth, even if only in skill sets, seems absurd. Pitchers are not players. Pitchers are judged on only one of the five basic skills:
hit
hit with power
run
field
throw.
Ohtani is now being judged on three. I haven't heard much about his ability to run and field but let's leave that aside and look at his hitting.
In his break out season of 2016 Ohtani hit 22 home runs, OPS 1.004. It's not clear to me why Ohtani has so few plate appearances and at bats. Why doesn't he simply be the designated hitter (DH) in the games that he does not start as a pitcher? And if he can't in Japan where he pitches only once a week, how will he get 600 PA in the USA?
PA: 382
AB: 323
HR: 22
BA: .322
OBP: .416
SLG: .588
OPS: 1.004
2016 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
Among teammates with significant numbers of PA, Ohtani led in all four averages. However, Ohtani was third on his team in home runs to teammates with many more AB.
Brandon Laird originally signed with the Yankees but did not make it with them or subsequently with the Astros. In 2015, 2016, 2017 Laird has played full time for Ohtani's team and hit these number of home runs: 34, 39, 32.
2016 Japan Pacific League
Ohtani was number one in OPS and number 8 in home runs. The home run champ was his teammate Brandon Laird with 39. Next came Ernesto Mejia with 35. Third was a familiar name if only because it is unusual and he played briefly for the Yankees in 2014 (62 PA, 57 AB, 2 HR, .528 OPS) : Zelous Wheeler.
Playing for Rakuten in 2016 and 2017 Zelous hit 27 and 31 home runs. OPS .829 and .835.
So without doing any heavy lifting and just doing common sense research, I found two failed USA players thriving in the same league in Japan where Ohtani plays.
Yankee general manager Brian Cashman has signed three significant players from Japan that I can think of:
Hideki Matsui, outfielder
Kei Igawa, pitcher
Masahiro Tanaka, pitcher
Igawa failed.
Tanaka has succeeded but has had arm problems that probably influenced him to not opt out of his contract and become a free agent after the 2017 season.
Matsui came over as "Godzilla" after hitting 50 home runs in his final season in Japan at age 28. Matsui hit 31 homers in his second Yankee season and for seven seasons OPS+ 123. Matsui may be the only hitter from any Asian country to hit 30 or more home runs in the U.S. Major League.
Pitchers from Japan have succeeded in the U.S. Major League but not many hitters and Matsui seems to be the only slugger and Matsui was not a big time home run hitter in the U.S. Major League.
If Shohei Ohtani continues to divide his energy and concentration, he may fail at both. Hitting is by far the most difficult skill and Ohtani is not likely to be an impact Major League hitter. Ohtani is more likely to be a Major League pitcher.
If Shohei Ohtani is another Babe Ruth, that would be a great story that I'd like to see as much as anyone, especially if Ohtani plays for the Yankees. However, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid.
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