Home Run Proficiency Career

Babe Ruth

In 1895, the year Babe Ruth was born, 6' 3", 220 pound Roger Connor at age 37 hit 8 home runs (HR) for St. Louis in the National League (NL) and passed 5' 11", 175 pound Harry Stovey, the first batter to hit 100 HR, for the most HR in a career.  Connor finished the season with 126, four more than Stovey.  Connor retired after playing 22 games in 1897 with 138 HR, a record he held until Ruth hit 59 HR in 1921 and finished that season with 162 HR.

Our evaluation of HR hitting has remained primitive to the present.  The simple method that I have been using recently is a big improvement over totals.  Here are the top four HR hitters based on count:

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Barry Bonds	762	1986	2007	21-42	2986	12606	9847	2227	2935	601	77	1996	2558	688	1539	106	4	91	165	514	141	.298	.444	.607	1.051	*78/D9	PIT-SFG
2	Hank Aaron	755	1954	1976	20-42	3298	13941	12364	2174	3771	624	98	2297	1402	293	1383	32	21	121	328	240	73	.305	.374	.555	.928	*9783D/45	MLN-ATL-MIL
3	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40	2503	10620	8399	2174	2873	506	136	2213	2062		1330	43	113		2	123	117	.342	.474	.690	1.164	971/83	BOS-NYY-BSN
4	Willie Mays	660	1951	1973	20-42	2992	12496	10881	2062	3283	523	140	1903	1464	192	1526	44	13	91	251	338	103	.302	.384	.557	.941	*8/39675	NYG-SFG-TOT-NYM

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/5/2013.

We all know these numbers: 762, 755, 714, 660.  But how many of us know these:
 9,847
12,364
 8,399
10,881

Those are the at bats (AB).  Using the two together we get a much better insight into the relative achievements.  Even better insight is gained with my home run proficiency method, which simply subtracts the player's HR and AB from the league total and divides league HR by AB to get the league HR rate for all the other batters.

(P-(L-P))/((L-P)
In this equation each letter represents (HR/AB) for either the player or the league minus the player.  The result is the number of times the player's HR rate is better than all the other batters in that league that season.

Season numbers have been in recent posts, labeled X in associated spreadsheets.  This post takes that season data and aggregates for a career number (Y) weighted of course by AB per season.  For data through 2011 there are 771 batters with at least 100 career HR.  Sorted by Y (career home run proficiency), number one was Babe Ruth, number 771 was Wade Boggs.

Click link to view data.  There are tabs for :
- top 50 or so
- bottom 50 or so
- 493 HR or 50 HR in a season

- Retired 1903-1928
- Retired 1929-1953
- Retired 1954-1979
- Retired 1980-1999
- Active after 1999

As was seen in the season data there is a clear trend toward more HR hitting by all batters, which reduces the proficiency factor in more recent decades.

First let's see where the top four ranked among all 771 batters with at least 100 career HR.

1. Ruth 7.8 times more proficient than the other batters when he played
30. Bonds 1.84
41. Aaron 1.64
53. Mays 1.5

Note: In a recent post I showed that Mays was a better HR hitter than Aaron by examining their common peak seasons (1954-1968) on the road but not in each others parks.  My guess is that Aaron has an edge for their entire careers because:
- Mays missed two seasons in the Army
- Aaron got a late career boost playing his home games in Atlanta (1966-1974)
- Aaron experienced an inexplicable surge in his HR proficiency at an age when sluggers generally decline: age 37 career best, age 39 second best.

Top 11 of the 771 includes three guys named Williams:

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Babe	Ruth	7.84119299220552
Gavvy	Cravath	4.55287306249984
Lou	Gehrig	3.51675697407194
Jimmie	Foxx	3.25037513563742
Cy	Williams	3.13367633515654
Harry	Stovey	2.98974641578546
Mel	Ott	2.96061715403917
Ken	Williams	2.90745879478981
Hank	Greenberg	2.80947802011959
Hack	Wilson	2.68388413055675
Ted	Williams	2.64056124469667

Now let's see the career rank for modern season HR record holders.

1. Ruth 7.8
2. Gavvy Cravath 4.56
18. Mark McGwire 2.3
30. Bonds 1.84
68. Sammy Sosa 1.37; He held the record briefly during the season, so what the heck, you're curious, right?
135. Roger Maris 1.01

493 HR or 50 HR in a season (43 batters):

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Babe	Ruth	7.84119299220552
Lou	Gehrig	3.51675697407194
Jimmie	Foxx	3.25037513563742
Mel	Ott	2.96061715403917
Hank	Greenberg	2.80947802011959
Hack	Wilson	2.68388413055675
Ted	Williams	2.64056124469667
Johnny	Mize	2.46237701258111
Ralph	Kiner	2.325441451065
Mark	McGwire	2.31202210507171
Mike	Schmidt	2.29192247376923
Willie	McCovey	1.93267986717054
Harmon	Killebrew	1.86478286445436
Barry	Bonds	1.83914088593434
Mickey	Mantle	1.77401631775621
Hank	Aaron	1.6362542084195
Ryan	Howard	1.61415267178781
Willie	Mays	1.50161322816385
George	Foster	1.49079992585632
Reggie	Jackson	1.45146892664544
Frank	Robinson	1.40778300065197
Sammy	Sosa	1.37011977189588
Eddie	Mathews	1.35001169379752
Jim	Thome	1.34485800097992
Prince	Fielder	1.29479526926014
Cecil	Fielder	1.26565486773925
Ernie	Banks	1.22268236971851
Albert	Belle	1.19682403686368
Alex	Rodriguez	1.1825268797646
Ken	Griffey	1.15329156234718
Fred	McGriff	1.1355931491646
Manny	Ramirez	1.13451205105933
Frank	Thomas	1.10495669767812
Roger	Maris	1.09110324304376
Greg	Vaughn	1.0120948124869
David	Ortiz	0.971306443398467
Gary	Sheffield	0.93247459821661
Jose	Bautista	0.875580298079811
Andruw	Jones	0.863558533275092
Rafael	Palmeiro	0.812138043268096
Eddie	Murray	0.758648640212588
Luis	Gonzalez	0.30034328096535
Brady	Anderson	0.0548450575301493

Cecil and Prince Fielder are neck and neck.

Notable sluggers not on that list and their rank among the 771:

24. Joe DiMaggio 2.043
67. Albert Pujols 1.4
174. Stan Musial .96
330. Carl Yastrzemski .6
_______________________________

Batters retired before 1903:

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Harry	Stovey	2.98974641578546
Roger	Connor	1.35904072873369
Mike	Tiernan	1.33722473016188

Batters retired 1903-1928

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Gavvy	Cravath	4.55287306249984
Tilly	Walker	2.60390833633276
Jack	Fournier	1.80530167803463
Sam	Thompson	1.63960726987351
Dan	Brouthers	1.49241208567265
Irish	Meusel	1.25910322798581
Ty	Cobb	1.18325545675517
Honus	Wagner	1.06337078971399
Hugh	Duffy	0.991659511462082
Ed	Delahanty	0.954915940575368
Jimmy	Ryan	0.933099452727171
Tris	Speaker	0.901729597955839
Zack	Wheat	0.720072475649976

Note: Frank Home Run Baker played from 1908-1922 and retired with 96 HR.

Batters retired 1929-1953:
78 batters hit at least 100 HR.  Four had Y > 3.  16 Y > 2; DiMaggio was #16.
Top 11:

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Babe	Ruth	7.84119299220552
Lou	Gehrig	3.51675697407194
Jimmie	Foxx	3.25037513563742
Cy	Williams	3.13367633515654
Mel	Ott	2.96061715403917
Ken	Williams	2.90745879478981
Hank	Greenberg	2.80947802011959
Hack	Wilson	2.68388413055675
Charlie	Keller	2.49678463371142
Johnny	Mize	2.46237701258111
Rogers	Hornsby	2.44773695512855

Batters retired 1954-1979 (165 batters):
Top 14

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Ted	Williams	2.64056124469667
Ralph	Kiner	2.325441451065
Harmon	Killebrew	1.86478286445436
Mickey	Mantle	1.77401631775621
Gus	Zernial	1.71781071017312
Dick	Allen	1.68203370144784
Hank	Aaron	1.6362542084195
Hank	Sauer	1.56930457802638
Vern	Stephens	1.5647764724648
Frank	Howard	1.52411277512819
Willie	Mays	1.50161322816385
Al	Rosen	1.50084005969308
Frank	Robinson	1.40778300065197
Eddie	Mathews	1.35001169379752

Batters retired 1980-1999 (211 batters):
Top 10

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Mike	Schmidt	2.29192247376923
Dave	Kingman	2.17009588073119
Willie	McCovey	1.93267986717054
Bob	Horner	1.89406084390857
Willie	Stargell	1.87557650472496
Darryl	Strawberry	1.73596628418227
Ron	Kittle	1.52435868893314
George	Foster	1.49079992585632
Johnny	Bench	1.47737031158564
Reggie	Jackson	1.45146892664544

Batters active after 1999  (303 batters):
Top 15

qryBattingHRrateCareerTotals

First	Last	Y
Mark	McGwire	2.31202210507171
Barry	Bonds	1.83914088593434
Ryan	Howard	1.61415267178781
Albert	Pujols	1.39366384919872
Sammy	Sosa	1.37011977189588
Jim	Thome	1.34485800097992
Jose	Canseco	1.31122794441868
Prince	Fielder	1.29479526926014
Adam	Dunn	1.27559006087993
Juan	Gonzalez	1.2291672186237
Mark	Reynolds	1.20588963468537
Albert	Belle	1.19682403686368
Eric	Davis	1.18807801078555
Alex	Rodriguez	1.1825268797646
Ken	Griffey	1.15329156234718

In a future post I'll take the percentage difference per season from their career number for the top career HR hitters to look for trends such as improvement late in a career and will create graphs.