Mike Mussina for the Hall of Fame? OK but just don't shout it.

I've been hearing that Mike Mussina should be elected to the Hall of Fame.  I guess he would go into the Bert Blyleven wing of players we had no idea were Hall of Famers while we were actually watching them.  We knew we were watching Hall of Famers when we saw Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds.  We knew what we saw when we saw it.  Now we need to re-evaluate Mussina to know what we saw.

Mike Mussina
 Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame ceremony
 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
August 25, 2012. By Keith Allison (Flickr)
[CC-BY-SA-2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

OK, so let's try a common sense approach.  As a Yankee fan I don't ever remember being concerned when the Yankees had to face Mussina during the first ten years of his career with division rival Baltimore, neither in the regular season nor in his one tournament series against the Yankees: 1996 second round.  In games one and two in Yankee Stadium Baltimore started Scott Erickson (Yanks won 5-4 11 innings) and David Wells (Wells won 5-1).  Mussina started game three, which was played in Baltimore and lost 5-2 allowing all the runs and a homer to Cecil Fielder.

Yanks won games 4 and 5 against starters Kenny Rogers and Scott Erickson.  Mussina appears to have been number three, at least in the opinion of his manager Davey Johnson, despite leading the American Conference with 36 starts and having a record of 19-11.  Mussina had pitched 8 innings September 28 in Toronto in his final regular season appearance.  The first round started Oct. 1 with Wells, then Erickson the next day, then Mussina on Oct. 4 in game three, which Baltimore lost 9-4; Mussina allowed four runs in the first four innings but was not charged with the loss leaving after six; homer to Manny Ramirez.

Against the Yankees in the regular season: 6-8, 3.38 ERA, 119 innings, 13 HR.  OK.

How about in his other tournament series?  Was Mussina the go to guy?

Baltimore:
1997 round one: 2-0, 1.93 ERA, 14 innings; started games one and four, both against Randy Johnson.  Mussina was the man.
1997 round two: 2 starts, 0.60 ERA, 15 innings; games 3 and 6; Baltimore lost 2-1 in 12, 1-0 in 11; lost series in 6 games.

Yankees:
2001 round one: Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte lost games 1 & 2 in Yankee Stadium; Mussina won game three 1-0 when Derek Jeter made the flip toss to home - no runs, 7 innings.
2001 round two: Pettite won game 1 in Seattle, Mussina won game two 3-2 - 2 runs, 6 innings HR Stan Javier
2001 round three: In Arizona Mussina lost game one 9-1; 3 innings, 5 runs (3 earned), HR: Luis Gonzalez, Craig Counsell.  Series tied 2-2 Mussina started game five in New York; Yanks won 3-2 in 12; 8 innings, 2 runs, 10 SO, HR: Steve Finley, Rod Barajas.

2002 round one: game three Yanks lost 9-6; 4 innings, 4 runs, HR: Adam Kennedy.

2003 round one: lost game one 3-1; 7 innings, 3 runs.
2003 round two: lost game one 5-2 in NY; 5.66 innings 4 runs HR: Todd Walker, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez. Lost game four in Boston 3-2; 6.66 innings, 3 runs, HR: Todd Walker, Trot Nixon.  FIVE home runs!
Game seven relieved Clemens in 4th inning, runners on first and third no outs, Yanks down 4-0: prevented Clemens' runners from scoring; 3 innings, 0 runs.  Yanks won in 11 on HR by Aaron Boone.
2003 round three: won game three 6-1; 7 innings, 1 run.  Yanks lost series in 6 games.

2004 round one: lost game one 2-0; 7 innings, 2 runs; HR Jacque Jones.
2004 round two: won game one 10-7; 6.66 innings, 4 runs, 8 SO.  Started game 5; 6 innings, 2 runs; Yanks lost 5-4 14 innings.  Yanks lost series in 7 games.

2005 round one: won game one 4-2; 5.66 innings, no runs.  Lost fifth and final game 5-3; 2.66 innings, 5 runs; HR Garret Anderson.

2006 round one: lost game two 4-3; 7 innings, 4 runs; HR Carlos Guillen.

2007 round one: fourth and final game relieved starter Chien-Ming Wang in 2nd inning, bases loaded no outs - allowed two of Wang's runners to score; Wang lost 6-4; 4.66 innings, 2 runs.

HR/9, ERA:
regular: .9, 3.68
tournament: 1.2, 3.42

Mussina pitched well in the tournament if not very memorably and with a worse HR rate.  He started game one more often than I would have thought, especially after Clemens had left.  Gave up too many homers in the tournament but often with no runners.  With the Yankees I don't ever recall thinking that the Yankees had an edge in the tournament because they had Mussina or in specific games when Mussina pitched.  I never thought: well the Yanks may lose this game but they have Mussina to bail them out in the next game.  What Yankee fan ever thought anything like that, or any Baltimore fan when Mussina played there?

If you look at his regular season numbers Mussina has very little black ink, which shows that he led.  He seems like Don Sutton minus five years.  I can understand why some people think that Mussina should be elected but I'm not enthusiastic.

1946 to 2013, IP>=3000 and ERA+ >=120:

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	W	L	W-L%	SV	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	BF	IBB	HBP	BK	WP	Tm	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	SH	SF	2B	3B	GDP	SB	CS	PO
1	Roger Clemens	143	4916.2	1984	2007	21-44	709	707	118	46	0	354	184	.658	0	4185	1885	1707	1580	4672	3.12	363	20240	63	159	20	143	BOS-TOR-HOU-NYY	.229	.294	.341	.636	68	119	103	796	84	330	446	214	36
2	Randy Johnson	135	4135.1	1988	2009	24-45	618	603	100	37	7	303	166	.646	2	3346	1703	1513	1497	4875	3.29	411	17067	37	190	33	109	MON-TOT-SEA-NYY-ARI-SFG	.221	.297	.353	.650	71	131	89	660	58	252	456	224	58
3	Whitey Ford	133	3170.1	1950	1967	21-38	498	438	156	45	35	236	106	.690	10	2766	1107	967	1086	1956	2.75	228	13036	44	28	5	75	NYY	.235	.300	.340	.640	82	117	49	376	84	354	29	55	52
4	Greg Maddux	132	5008.1	1986	2008	20-42	744	740	109	35	3	355	227	.610	0	4726	1981	1756	999	3371	3.16	353	20421	177	137	28	70	CHC-ATL-TOT-SDP	.250	.291	.358	.649	75	274	119	817	84	422	547	170	28
5	Curt Schilling	127	3261.0	1988	2007	21-40	569	436	83	20	81	216	146	.597	22	2998	1318	1253	711	3116	3.46	347	13284	43	52	8	72	BAL-HOU-PHI-TOT-ARI-BOS	.243	.286	.387	.673	77	123	76	612	60	193	105	79	14
6	Tom Seaver	127	4783.0	1967	1986	22-41	656	647	231	61	6	311	205	.603	1	3971	1674	1521	1390	3640	2.86	380	19369	116	76	8	126	CIN-NYM-CHW-TOT	.226	.283	.342	.626	79	187	111	675	120	315	409	164	14
7	Bob Gibson	127	3884.1	1959	1975	23-39	528	482	255	56	21	251	174	.591	6	3279	1420	1258	1336	3117	2.91	257	16068	118	102	13	108	STL	.228	.297	.325	.622	77	171	94	457	83	292	196	88	0
8	Kevin Brown	127	3256.1	1986	2005	21-40	486	476	72	17	1	211	144	.594	0	3079	1357	1185	901	2397	3.28	208	13542	42	139	15	108	TEX-BAL-FLA-SDP-LAD-NYY	.249	.306	.349	.655	79	95	64	493	53	330	180	112	34
9	Jim Palmer	125	3948.0	1965	1984	19-38	558	521	211	53	15	268	152	.638	4	3349	1395	1253	1311	2212	2.86	303	16114	37	38	11	85	BAL	.230	.294	.340	.634	82	133	84	512	88	273	265	164	15
10	John Smoltz	125	3473.0	1988	2009	21-42	723	481	53	16	204	213	155	.579	154	3074	1391	1284	1010	3084	3.33	288	14271	84	57	16	145	ATL-TOT	.237	.293	.360	.653	76	139	87	605	67	244	182	102	15
11	Juan Marichal	123	3507.0	1960	1975	22-37	471	457	244	52	11	243	142	.631	2	3153	1329	1126	709	2303	2.89	320	14236	82	40	20	51	SFG-BOS-LAD	.237	.277	.350	.626	80	125	65	396	70	207	176	82	43
12	Mike Mussina	123	3562.2	1991	2008	22-39	537	536	57	23	0	270	153	.638	0	3460	1559	1458	785	2813	3.68	376	14593	29	60	1	71	BAL-NYY	.255	.297	.399	.696	81	90	82	719	53	293	182	117	5
13	Don Drysdale	121	3432.0	1956	1969	19-32	518	465	167	49	34	209	166	.557	6	3084	1292	1124	855	2486	2.95	280	14097	123	154	10	82	BRO-LAD	.239	.293	.352	.645	85	116	66	471	74	270	95	84	51

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/3/2014.

Mussina is in elite company at number 12.  The others are all Hall of Fame or equivalent.  I guess it's OK to like Mike Mussina for the Hall of Fame.  Just don't shout it.

Oh, Bert Blyleven: ERA+ 118 .