Willie Mays: best batter at 40 but not best hitter. Is Walking Hitting?

Is Walking Hitting?

David Ortiz and the Greatest Age-40 Season Ever
by Matthew Kory - February 8, 2016 fangraphs.com

Because Ortiz doesn’t play defense, he’s unlikely to post the best overall season ever, so let’s switch over to a purely offensive stat: wRC+. This is ideal, as it controls for park factors and the general run environment. This way, we can compare hitter quality across eras without getting bogged down in silly things like defense and base running. So, who has the highest wRC+ of any 40-year-old in baseball history? Willie Mays! From 1971!
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I will use OPS+ because it is more readily available than wRC+ and they produce similar results.

In 2015 at age 39 David Ortiz hit 37 home runs and slugged .553; career .547. His On Base Average: in 2015 .360; career .378. Ortiz reached OPS+ 141 in 2015 by hitting, not by walking. Career OPS+ 139.

50 player seasons qualified for leading in averages (502 plate appearances (PA) in recent seasons) for players at least 40 years old before July 1. Of those fifty, 27 had OPS+ >= 100. Rabbit Maranville had the two lowest at ages 40 and 41: 59 and 60. Here are the top 20:

Rk	Player	OPS+	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Willie Mays	158	1971	40	SFG	NL	136	537	417	82	113	24	5	18	61	112	11	123	3	1	4	8	23	3	.271	.425	.482	.907	*83H
2	Edgar Martinez	141	2003	40	SEA	AL	145	603	497	72	146	25	0	24	98	92	7	95	7	0	7	17	0	1	.294	.406	.489	.895	*D/H
3	Dave Winfield	138	1992	40	TOR	AL	156	670	583	92	169	33	3	26	108	82	10	89	1	1	3	10	2	3	.290	.377	.491	.867	*D9
4	Stan Musial	137	1962	41	STL	NL	135	505	433	57	143	18	1	19	82	64	4	46	3	0	5	13	3	0	.330	.416	.508	.924	*79H
5	Darrell Evans	135	1987	40	DET	AL	150	609	499	90	128	20	0	34	99	100	8	84	2	2	6	2	6	5	.257	.379	.501	.880	*3DH/5
6	Carlton Fisk	134	1990	42	CHW	AL	137	521	452	65	129	21	0	18	65	61	8	73	7	0	1	12	7	2	.285	.378	.451	.829	*2DH
7	Ty Cobb	134	1927	40	PHA	AL	133	574	490	104	175	32	7	5	93	67		12	5	12			22	16	.357	.440	.482	.921	*98/H
8	Rickey Henderson	128	1999	40	NYM	NL	121	526	438	89	138	30	0	12	42	82	1	82	2	1	3	4	37	14	.315	.423	.466	.889	*7/HD
9	Honus Wagner	127	1915	41	PIT	NL	156	625	566	68	155	32	17	6	78	39		64	4	16			22	15	.274	.325	.422	.747	*643/H
10	Luke Appling	126	1947	40	CHW	AL	139	573	503	67	154	29	0	8	49	64		28	1	4		15	8	6	.306	.386	.412	.797	*6/H5
11	Luke Appling	125	1949	42	CHW	AL	142	619	492	82	148	21	5	5	58	121		24	0	6		23	7	12	.301	.439	.394	.833	*6/H
12	Honus Wagner	121	1916	42	PIT	NL	124	485	432	45	124	15	9	1	39	34		36	8	10			11		.287	.350	.370	.721	*63/H4
13	Graig Nettles	120	1985	40	SDP	NL	137	515	440	66	115	23	1	15	61	72	5	59	0	0	3	10	0	0	.261	.363	.420	.784	*5H
14	Pete Rose	118	1981	40	PHI	NL	107	486	431	73	140	18	5	0	33	46	5	26	3	1	3	8	4	4	.325	.391	.390	.781	*3
15	Sam Rice	118	1930	40	WSH	AL	147	669	593	121	207	35	13	1	73	55		14	3	17			13	8	.349	.407	.457	.864	*98/H
16	Reggie Jackson	116	1986	40	CAL	AL	132	517	419	65	101	12	2	18	58	92	11	115	3	0	3	14	1	1	.241	.379	.408	.787	*DH/9
17	Sam Rice	116	1932	42	WSH	AL	106	323	288	58	93	16	7	1	34	32		6	0	3			7	4	.323	.391	.438	.828	9H87
18	Johnny Cooney	115	1941	40	BSN	NL	123	477	442	52	141	25	2	0	29	27		15	0	9		13	3		.319	.358	.385	.743	*8/H3
19	Carl Yastrzemski	111	1982	42	BOS	AL	131	523	459	53	126	22	1	16	72	59	1	50	2	0	3	12	0	1	.275	.358	.431	.789	*DH3/8
20	Luke Appling	111	1948	41	CHW	AL	139	594	497	63	156	16	2	0	47	94		35	0	3		17	10	4	.314	.423	.354	.777	*56/H

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2016.

Willie Mays did not hit especially well at age 40. Mays led the National League in walks for the only time in his career with 112 in only 537 PA. Mays walked 21% of the time. His next highest walks: 82 in 665 PA (12%) in 1964 when he hit 47 HR.

In 1971 at age 40: 18 HR, .271/.425/.482. That .425 on base average was his highest and the only time Mays led the NL. Mays also had 123 SO; second most SO: 92 in 1967.

SO and BB composed 44% of his PA in 1971. Willie simply did not hit the ball much and when he did it was well below his usual standards and well below what David Ortiz did in 2015 at age 39.

The point is not to denigrate the great Willie Mays but to point out how much we have lost common sense in evaluating performance. The fangraphs.com article referenced above ignores the obvious items just mentioned about Mays, who was a shadow of his former self but who apparently had adapted at age 40 to his limited skill. At age 41 Mays also used walks to simulate production. In 309 PA with the Giants but mostly with the Mets, Mays BA dropped from .271 to .250 but his on base average was .400; his slugging plunged still further from .482 to .402; career .557.

Please read the document I wrote January 21, 2009. The link is the first and last lines of this post:

Is Walking Hitting?