Sunday, March 5, 2017

WBC: USA v. World in OPS+ by position and ERA+.

WBC: how the heck has USA not won ... every tournament? Saturday, March 4, 2017

In recent years about 72 percent of major league players were born in the USA.

Most significant WBC players have played major league U.S. ball.

Just given that, shouldn't the USA team be reasonably expected to win about 72% of its games? Shouldn't team USA have won at least two of the three tournaments played so far? Should we expect team USA to finally win this tournament?
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Techie note: Google and I are still experiencing a disconnect. The spreadsheet-like data below looks fine in "compose" mode. Click this link to view that data in a file.

Let's see if this is supported by some stats. Top ten in OPS+:

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9476
ThirdOPS+TmbornShortstopOPS+TmbornSecondOPS+TmbornFirstOPS+Tmborn
Josh Donaldson152TORUSACorey Seager137LADUSADaniel Murphy157WSNUSAJoey Votto160CIN
Kris Bryant149CHCUSACarlos Correa123HOUJose Altuve154HOUMiguel Cabrera157DET
Kyle Seager133SEAUSAJonathan Villar118MILRobinson Cano138SEAFreddie Freeman157ATLUSA
Nolan Arenado128COLUSAAsdrubal Cabrera114NYMBrian Dozier136MINUSAAnthony Rizzo146CHCUSA
Adrian Beltre128TEXBrad Miller113TBRUSADJ LeMahieu127COLUSAPaul Goldschmidt134ARIUSA
Manny Machado128BALUSAElvis Andrus110TEXBen Zobrist124CHCUSABrandon Belt132SFGUSA
Evan Longoria127TBRUSAXander Bogaerts109BOSJean Segura124ARIJose Abreu126CHW
Justin Turner124LADUSABrandon Crawford106SFGUSAIan Kinsler124DETUSAHanley Ramirez124BOS
Danny Valencia119OAKUSAFrancisco Lindor104CLEDustin Pedroia116BOSUSAChris Carter114MILUSA
Jake Lamb116ARIUSAMarcus Semien102OAKUSALogan Forsythe113TBRUSAAdrian Gonzalez113LADUSA
5694
LeftOPS+TmbornCenterOPS+TmbornPlayerOPS+TmbornCatcherOPS+Tmborn
Ryan Braun136MILUSAMike Trout174LAAUSAJ.D. Martinez144DETUSAJonathan Lucroy123TOTUSA
Christian Yelich133MIAUSAYoenis Cespedes133NYMMookie Betts131BOSUSAWilson Ramos123WSN
Yoenis Cespedes133NYMCharlie Blackmon129COLUSAGeorge Springer124HOUUSABuster Posey112SFGUSA
Khris Davis126OAKUSADexter Fowler126CHCUSAMark Trumbo120BALUSAYadier Molina110STL
Melky Cabrera120CHWJackie Bradley116BOSUSAAdam Eaton119CHWUSAJ.T. Realmuto110MIAUSA
Starling Marte117PITOdubel Herrera111PHIJose Bautista117TORRussell Martin96TOR
Michael Saunders115TORMarcell Ozuna109MIAKole Calhoun117LAAUSAStephen Vogt96OAKUSA
Justin Upton108DETIan Desmond104TEXUSABryce Harper116WSNUSASalvador Perez89KCR
Adam Duvall106CINUSAAndrew McCutchen103PITUSAMatt Kemp112TOTUSA
Corey Dickerson106TBRUSAEnder Inciarte98ATLJay Bruce112TOTUSA

USA players are in bold. The number of USA players in the top ten are above the names of the players. Only eight catchers qualified and outfield positions may seem a bit off because of players playing multiple positions.

Of the 78 players listed above, 51 were born in the USA: 65%. That's still about two thirds. USA has the top player in 7 of 8 positions. Only Canadian born Joey Votto breaks through at first base. Oh, Canada!

Maybe the pitchers make up the 8% difference.
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8
PitcherERA+Tmborn
Kyle Hendricks188CHCUSA
Jon Lester164CHCUSA
Noah Syndergaard158NYMUSA
Madison Bumgarner149SFGUSA
Corey Kluber149CLEUSA
Tanner Roark148WSNUSA
Johnny Cueto147SFG
Rick Porcello145BOSUSA
Aaron Sanchez142TORUSA
Masahiro Tanaka142NYY

Yep. But hardly any of the top USA pitchers participate, so maybe that accounts for a big part of the lack of USA success.

I'm looking for extra inning games:

WBC extra innings: 11th inning starts with runners on first and second base. Saturday, March 4, 2017

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