Will 50 Home Runs assure Stanton and Judge MVP?

The season is over and Giancarlo Stanton (59) and Aaron Judge (52) are the only players to hit at least 50 Home Runs (HR), each leading his respective "league", really a conference. As stated here two days ago, 50 HR should give each a substantial edge in MVP voting without compelling stats for a competitor.  Of the 45 seasons of 50 HR, including multiples by some players, ten players, each only once, who hit 50 or more HR have been voted the modern Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, which stated in 1931, which excludes all four times that Babe  Ruth hit 50, including 60 in 1927, and Hack Wilson's 56 in 1930, which was the National League record, which along with the major league record of 61 set by Yankee Roger Maris in 1961, was shattered in 1998 by both Mark McGwire (70) and Sammy Sosa (66).  HR runner up Sosa was voted 1998 NL MVP; it was the only time that Sosa was MVP.

50 HR and MVP in the same season:

nameFirst	nameLast	yearID	teamID	lgID	AB	HR
Jimmie	Foxx	1932	PHA	AL	585	58
Mickey	Mantle	1956	NYA	AL	533	52
Roger	Maris	1961	NYA	AL	590	61
Willie	Mays	1965	SFN	NL	558	52
George	Foster	1977	CIN	NL	615	52
Ken	Griffey	1997	SEA	AL	608	56
Sammy	Sosa	1998	CHN	NL	643	66
Barry	Bonds	2001	SFN	NL	476	73
Ryan	Howard	2006	PHI	NL	581	58
Alex	Rodriguez	2007	NYA	AL	583	54

In addition to record setters Sosa and Maris, Barry Bonds was also MVP in 2001 when he set the current record of 73 HR. So, of the ten 50 HR MVP players, three broke the season record. McGwire both set the record and led the league but still was never voted MVP, ever. This suggests that hitting 50 HR is not a ticket to the MVP award.

Some seasons had multiple players hit 50 in the same league.

Year	L	Count
1938	AL	2
1947	NL	2
1961	AL	2
1996	AL	2
1998	NL	3
1999	NL	2
2001	NL	3
2002	AL	2

So, aside from a tie in voting, only one could be MVP. The first time this happened was in 1938. Hank Greenberg of the Tigers challenged Ruth's record of 60, finishing with 58. But Jimmie Foxx of the Red Sox hit 50 HR and was MVP. The next time was in 1947: New York Giant Johnny Mize and Pirate Ralph Kiner each hit 51. Then in 1961 Yankees teammates Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris engaged in their famous HR race, which Maris won 61 to 54 and was MVP. All other league multiple 50 HR performances were in the steroid era of performance enhancing drugs (PED), roughly 1995-2010.

Of the 45 occurrences of 50 HR, the player led the league in 36. One of those 45 seasons should be excluded: in 1997 McGwire hit 58 HR playing for one team in each league: Athletics (34) and Cardinals (24). Sosa failed to lead in any of his three SIXTY HR seasons. The two times that Sosa led in HR:
2000 50
2002 49.

In addition to Foxx, Mantle and Sosa, others who hit at least 50 HR but did not lead the league:
Luis Gonzales 57 in 2001; third behind Bonds (73) and Sosa (64)
Jim Thome 52 in 2002; second behind Alex Rodriguez (57)
Brady Anderson 50 in 1996;  second behind McGwire (52)
Greg Vaughn 50 in 1998; third behind McGwire (70) and Sosa (66)

Excluding Ruth, Wilson, Stanton, Judge, here are the 25 players to hit at least 50 HR with the count, year(s) and amount(s):

qry50HR

First	Last	Count	YearFirst	YearLast	HRmin	HRmax
Jimmie	Foxx	2	1932	1938	50	58
Hank	Greenberg	1	1938	1938	58	58
Ralph	Kiner	2	1947	1949	51	54
Johnny	Mize	1	1947	1947	51	51
Willie	Mays	2	1955	1965	51	52
Mickey	Mantle	2	1956	1961	52	54
Roger	Maris	1	1961	1961	61	61
George	Foster	1	1977	1977	52	52
Cecil	Fielder	1	1990	1990	51	51
Albert	Belle	1	1995	1995	50	50
Mark	McGwire	3	1996	1999	52	70
Brady	Anderson	1	1996	1996	50	50
Ken	Griffey	2	1997	1998	56	56
Greg	Vaughn	1	1998	1998	50	50
Sammy	Sosa	4	1998	2001	50	66
Alex	Rodriguez	3	2001	2007	52	57
Barry	Bonds	1	2001	2001	73	73
Luis	Gonzalez	1	2001	2001	57	57
Jim	Thome	1	2002	2002	52	52
Andruw	Jones	1	2005	2005	51	51
David	Ortiz	1	2006	2006	54	54
Ryan	Howard	1	2006	2006	58	58
Prince	Fielder	1	2007	2007	50	50
Jose	Bautista	1	2010	2010	54	54
Chris	Davis	1	2013	2013	53	53

1931-2016: 27 seasons with at least one player hitting at least 50 HR. Subtract the ten years in which there were multiple 50 HR players in the same league and that leaves 17 seasons in which a player could lead in homers with at least 50. In 10 of the 17 seasons the 50 HR player was also MVP. That's 58% of the time.

2017 MVP: Stanton and (Altuve or Judge or Trout). Saturday, September 30, 2017

Home Runs mean a lot and each conference (league) has one player with more than 50 and way more than anyone else:
National: Giancarlo Stanton 59  Born: November 8, 1989 (Age: 27- 326 days)
American: Aaron Judge 51  Born: April 26, 1992 (Age: 25-157 days)

Miami Marlin Stanton leads in WAR, oWAR, SLG, RBI (tied), HR, HR rate.

Cincinnati Red Joey Votto leads in OBP, OPS, OPS+. Stanton is not in the top ten for OBP but is second in OPS and OPS+.

Especially if Stanton reaches 60 HR, he'll probably be voted MVP easily...

... New York Yankee Aaron Judge has a chance to become the third player to be voted both Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season and Judge has better credentials than the two who have. However, Judge has legitimate competition. Here they are with their MVP finishes.

Jose Altuve Born: May 6, 1990 (Age: 27-147 days) X,X,13,10,3
Jose Ramirez Born: September 17, 1992 (Age: 25-013 days) 17
Mike Trout  Born: August 7, 1991 (Age: 26-054 days) 2,2,1,2,1 ...

Trout is completely missing in action in June due to injury and both Judge and Ramirez might was well have been in August.

Voting will be very difficult. Many voters will want to reward Altuve not only for being consistently good all season but also for having been so for four consecutive years. Trout is Trout, the best. Judge is the new "kid" (hey, he turned 25 in April). His big plus: those 51 home runs, many of which went unimaginable distances. Plus, he's so modest.

My guess: Altuve is voted MVP.
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