National: Giancarlo Stanton 59 Born: November 8, 1989 (Age: 27- 326 days)
American: Aaron Judge 51 Born: April 26, 1992
Miami Marlin Stanton leads in WAR, oWAR, SLG, RBI (tied), HR, HR rate.
Cincinnati Red Joey Votto leads in OBP, OPS, OPS+. Stanton is not in the top ten for OBP but is second in OPS and OPS+.
Especially if Stanton reaches 60 HR, he'll probably be voted MVP easily.
Greatest rookie season: Mike Trout 2012. Only rookie to lead in both WAR and OPS+ Friday, September 29, 2017
Aaron Judge hit home run number 51 last night. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the fourth best ever for a rookie but well behind that of Mike Trout, who, like 2017 Dodger rookie Cody Bellinger (39 HR), started his rookie season in the minors...
(Rookies of the Year) Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki were also voted Most Valuable Player (MVP), despite not leading the league in either WAR or OPS+. Trout led in both but finished second for MVP to the triple crown of Miguel Cabrera: WAR 7.2, OPS+ 164.
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So, New York Yankee Aaron Judge has a chance to become the third player to be voted both Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season and Judge has better credentials than the two who have. However, Judge has legitimate competition. Here they are with their MVP finishes.
Jose Altuve Born: May 6, 1990 (Age: 27-147 days) X,X,13,10,3
Jose Ramirez Born: September 17, 1992 (Age: 25-013 days) 17
Mike Trout Born: August 7, 1991 (Age: 26-054 days) 2,2,1,2,1
Like Judge and Stanton, all are young and dynamic. Ramirez of Cleveland has played both third and second and he is included because of his versatility but his batting numbers are not comparable to the others.
When Judge had a long batting slump in July and August, Houston Astro second baseman Altuve seemed to be completing a natural progression to his first MVP award. Altuve now has more than 200 hits for the fourth consecutive season, leading his "league" in each. His OPS+ is right behind Judge. More details on stats below.
Angels center fielder Mike Trout is the best baseball player on the planet. He could have been voted MVP in all of his first five seasons and is a contender again in season six despite missing about six weeks due to injury May 28, 2017 (Angels game 53) when his OPS was 1.203. Trout's next game was July 14, 2017 (Angels game 93). So Trout missed 40 games, about 25% of the season. But if any player could overcome that and still contend for MVP, Mike Trout is that player. What also hurts Trout's chances is that his Angels team will not reach the tournament.
A player needs 502 plate appearances (PA) to qualify for leading in averages, as opposed to totals. Trout now has 500 PA, so he will qualify in his next game. Trout leads in the most important average stats: OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+. Altuve leads in the least important: BA. Again, details below.
Judge was all world for the first half of the season, then had such a prolonged and deep slump that he seemed all but eliminated from MVP consideration. But his massive surge in September has pushed his name back up beside Altuve and Trout, both of whom get extra credit for their base stealing:
Altuve: 32, 6
Trout: 22, 4.
Aaron Judge had these slash lines through these dates
July 8, 2017: .330/.449/.697/1.146
Sept. 8, 2017: .274/.409/.568/.978
OK, time for comparative stats. Leading the "league" is bold and leading among the four MVP candidates has the edges of the box highlighted.
Totals:
Trout has 33 HR in only 395 AB. AB/HR = 12. Judge has 51 HR in 539 AB. AB/HR = 10.6. Trout holds up pretty well. Judge also leads the world with 206 alarming SO. In the supposedly all encompassing Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Altuve leads.
Averages:
Almost all Trout. Judge barely higher than Altuve in OPS+.
OPS by month:
Trout is completely missing in action in June due to injury and both Judge and Ramirez might was well have been in August.
Voting will be very difficult. Many voters will want to reward Altuve not only for being consistently good all season but also for having been so for four consecutive years. Trout is Trout, the best. Judge is the new "kid" (hey, he turned 25 in April). His big plus: those 51 home runs, many of which went unimaginable distances. Plus, he's so modest.
My guess: Altuve is voted MVP.
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