Shohei Ohtani should not be considered for Rookie of the Year.

Shohei Ohtani is the darling of those who want to show how smart they are. Specifically, they want Ohtani to be voted Rookie of the Year.

Shouldn't there be some reasonable minimum amount of playing time?

There is precedent for a player being voted Rookie of the Year (RoY) with little playing time. Recently departed Hall of Famer Willie McCovey had only 219 plate appearances (PA) in 1959 but was voted RoY. However, McCovey didn't make his major league debut until July 30, 1959. So McCovey played regularly. He just came up late. 100 PA per month times 6 months = 600 PA, way more than the 502 now required in a 162 game schedule. In 1959 the schedule was still 154 games. OPS+ didn't exist in 1959 but we now know that McCovey had 188 in 1959. Hank Aaron led the National League for qualifying batters in OPS+ with 182.

Ohtani:
Batting:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2018	23	LAA	AL	104	367	326	59	93	21	2	22	61	10	4	37	102	.285	.361	.564	.925	152	184	2	2	0	1	2	D1

Pitching:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2018	23	LAA	AL	4	2	.667	3.31	10	10	0	0	0	0	51.2	38	19	19	6	22	0	63	1	0	5	211	126	3.57	1.161	6.6	1.0	3.8	11.0	2.86

Batting: OPS+ 152
Pitching: ERA+ 126

Good but not astonishing. But look at Ohtani's PA and Innings Pitched (IP):
PA (needed to qualify for leading league: 502): 367 (73%)
IP (needed to qualify for leading league: 162): 52 (32%)

Plus, Ohtani played 82 games as Designated Hitter (DH) and 10 as a pitcher. Ohtani did not play any other fielding position. We might tolerate players in their 30s being DH but Ohtani was only 23 years old.

So the real question: why even consider Ohtani?

Yankee third baseman Miguel Andujar had 606 PA. That's 21% above the 502 minimum. And Andujar had OPS+ 126. Oh, Andujar played 149 games, 132 started at third base.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2017	22	NYY	AL	5	8	7	0	4	2	0	0	4	1	0	1	0	.571	.625	.857	1.482	286	6	0	0	0	0	0	/5D
2018	23	NYY	AL	149	606	573	83	170	47	2	27	92	2	1	25	97	.297	.328	.527	.855	126	302	9	4	0	4	2	*5D

Yesterday I received this from my friend Cliff:

Ken,

I've read a couple of things recently on why no one compiles a season BA 
of .40 any more.  It occurred to me that they are missing an important 
point- the season is longer now than it was in 1941 or the 1920s.  The 
more games you play or the more ABs you have, the harder it is to have a high BA.  If you look at the three highest season BAs since 1942, 
you've got Tony Gwynn, who played 110 games, George Brett, in 117 games, 
and Ted Williams in 1957, in 132 games.  Even in 1941 Williams missed 11 
games.  Since the season was expanded in 1961, there have been 61 
hitters who qualified for the title and had a BA of at least .35, and 42 
of them played fewer than 155 games.  Wade Boggs was a bit of an outlier 
since he played 161 and 155 games in his top two BA seasons.
_______________________________

Ignoring the lack of a third zero, this is a good point.

Bigger deal in 1941: hitting .400 or hitting in 56 consecutive games? Friday, September 30, 2016

The stats above show that a .400 BA had been done a dozen times before 1941 in the modern era, which is generally traced back to 1901. It had only been 11 years since the previous .400 hitter.

Since 1941 the same number of batters had hit at least .370: 13.
______________________________

There are two sets of data in that post for players who qualified for the league lead, for which Ohtani had only 73% . Here they are again but sorted ascending on AB:

Rk	Player	AB	BA	PA	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Ted Williams	456	.406	606	1941	22	BOS	AL	143	135	185	33	3	37	120	147		27	3	0		10	2	4	.553	.735	1.287	*7H/9
2	Rogers Hornsby	504	.403	606	1925	29	STL	NL	138	133	203	41	10	39	143	83		39	2	16			5	3	.489	.756	1.245	*4/H
3	Harry Heilmann	524	.403	627	1923	28	DET	AL	144	121	211	44	11	18	115	74		40	5	23			9	7	.481	.632	1.113	*93/H
4	Ty Cobb	526	.401	613	1922	35	DET	AL	137	99	211	42	16	4	99	55		24	4	27			9	13	.462	.565	1.026	*8/H
5	Rogers Hornsby	536	.424	642	1924	28	STL	NL	143	121	227	43	14	25	94	89		32	2	13			5	12	.507	.696	1.203	*4
6	Nap Lajoie	544	.426	582	1901	26	PHA	AL	131	145	232	48	14	14	125	24		9	13	1			27		.463	.643	1.106	*46
7	Ty Cobb	553	.409	609	1912	25	DET	AL	140	120	226	30	23	7	83	43		30	5	8			61	34	.456	.584	1.040	*8/7
8	Shoeless Joe Jackson	571	.408	641	1911	23	CLE	AL	147	126	233	45	19	7	83	56		42	8	6			41		.468	.590	1.058	*98
9	George Sisler	586	.420	655	1922	29	SLB	AL	142	134	246	42	18	8	105	49		14	3	16			51	19	.467	.594	1.061	*3/H
10	Ty Cobb	591	.420	654	1911	24	DET	AL	146	147	248	47	24	8	127	44		42	8	11			83		.467	.621	1.088	*8
11	Rogers Hornsby	623	.401	704	1922	26	STL	NL	154	141	250	46	14	42	152	65		50	1	15			17	12	.459	.722	1.181	*4
12	George Sisler	631	.407	692	1920	27	SLB	AL	154	137	257	49	18	19	122	46		19	2	13			42	17	.449	.632	1.082	*3/1
13	Bill Terry	633	.401	708	1930	31	NYG	NL	154	139	254	39	15	23	129	57		33	1	19			8		.452	.619	1.071	*3

Ted Williams in 1941 played 143 of 154 games. His AB are low because he walked 147 times, the only .400 hitter on this list with more than 100 BB. In other words, Ted Williams showed up for work and worked.

Rk	Player	AB	BA	PA	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Barry Bonds	403	.370	612	2002	37	SFG	NL	143	117	149	31	2	46	110	198	68	47	9	0	2	4	9	2	.582	.799	1.381	*7/DH
2	Tony Gwynn	419	.394	475	1994	34	SDP	NL	110	79	165	35	1	12	64	48	16	19	2	1	5	20	5	0	.454	.568	1.022	*9/H8
3	Ted Williams	420	.388	547	1957	38	BOS	AL	132	96	163	28	1	38	87	119	33	43	5	0	2	11	0	1	.526	.731	1.257	*7/H
4	Larry Walker	438	.379	513	1999	32	COL	NL	127	108	166	26	4	37	115	57	8	52	12	0	6	12	11	4	.458	.710	1.168	*9H/D
5	George Brett	449	.390	515	1980	27	KCR	AL	117	87	175	33	9	24	118	58	16	22	1	0	7	11	15	6	.454	.664	1.118	*5/H3
6	Andres Galarraga	470	.370	506	1993	32	COL	NL	120	71	174	35	4	22	98	24	12	73	6	0	6	9	2	4	.403	.602	1.005	*3/H
7	Nomar Garciaparra	529	.372	599	2000	26	BOS	AL	140	104	197	51	3	21	96	61	20	50	2	0	7	8	5	2	.434	.599	1.033	*6/HD
8	Todd Helton	580	.372	697	2000	26	COL	NL	160	138	216	59	2	42	147	103	22	61	4	0	10	12	5	3	.463	.698	1.162	*3/H
9	Tony Gwynn	589	.370	680	1987	27	SDP	NL	157	119	218	36	13	7	54	82	26	35	3	2	4	13	56	12	.447	.511	.958	*9/H
10	Tony Gwynn	592	.372	651	1997	37	SDP	NL	149	97	220	49	2	17	119	43	12	28	3	1	12	12	12	5	.409	.547	.957	*9/HD
11	Stan Musial	611	.376	698	1948	27	STL	NL	155	135	230	46	18	39	131	79		34	3	1		18	7		.450	.702	1.152	*987/3
12	Rod Carew	616	.388	694	1977	31	MIN	AL	155	128	239	38	16	14	100	69	15	55	3	1	5	6	23	13	.449	.570	1.019	*3/H4D
13	Ichiro Suzuki	704	.372	762	2004	30	SEA	AL	161	101	262	24	5	8	60	49	19	63	4	2	3	6	36	11	.414	.455	.869	*9/DH

Among the more recent list for players with BA at least .370, 6 of the 13 had fewer than 471 AB. But the lowest PA was 506, way more than Ohtani's 367.

Rod Carew had 27% more AB than George Brett but his BA (.388) was only two points lower. Tony Gwynn had the highest BA (.394) but the second lowest AB in that season; Carew had 32% more AB than Gwynn in 1994.

To quote my friend again:

The more games you play or the more ABs you have, the harder it is to have a high BA.

So if Ohtani had played more his performance would likely have not been as good. If I were voting for RoY, I would not consider Shohei Ohtani.

Should Ohtani be on the All Star team? Saturday, June 2, 2018